The ART of SAFe

Applying Lean and Agile techniques at scale to bring about effective, sustainable improvement in Culture, Execution and Business Results

Monday, January 8, 2018

Effective feature templates for safe, introduction, how much detail is needed, and by when.

  • Prior to WSJF assessment
  • Prior to PI Planning

Feature Canvas

feature hypothesis evaluated

New Product: “The current state of the [domain] has focussed primarily on [customer segments, pain points, etc]. What existing products/services fail to address is [this gap] Our product/service will address this gap by [vision/strategy] Our initial focus will be [this segment]”
Existing Product: “Our [service/product] is intended to achieve [these goals]. We have observed that the [product/service] isn’t meeting [these goals] which is causing [this adverse effect] to our business. How might we improve [service/product] so that our customers are more successful based on [these measurable criteria]?”
“We believe this [business outcome] will be achieved if [these users] successfully achieve [this user outcome] with [this feature]”.

Sample Completed Canvas

feature hypothesis evaluated

A glimpse at how you might visualise your next WSJF estimation workshop

feature hypothesis evaluated

Detail beyond the Canvas

  • User Journeys:  Some framing UX exploration is often very useful in preparing a Feature, and makes a great support to teams during PI planning.  
  • Architectural Impact Assessment: Some form of deliberate architectural consideration of the potential impact of the feature is critical in most complex environments.  It should rarely be more than a page – I find a common approach is one to two paragraphs of text accompanied by a high level sequence diagram identifying expected interactions between architectural layers.
  • Change Management Impacts: How do we get from deployed software to realised value?  Who will need training?  Are Work Instructions required?  

Tuning your Template

Who completes the canvas/template, 30 comments:.

Awesome work Mark! We have created some for clients too that we can't share. :-(

Thanks for sharing Mark - these are really useful. I really like the hypothesis statements for features and think that this is a major enhancement in SAFE 4.5. I wrote a blog post about it here: http://runningmann.co.za/2017/09/25/the-power-of-feature-hypotheses/ that you might be interested in.

These are awesome Mark. Thanks for sharing

Thanks for sharing your experience on this area with the community Mark. Feature Templates are a very common requirement for Agile practitioners, maybe you can persuade the SAFe community to include an artefact like this in the framework.

Information was good,i like your post. Looking forward for more on this topic. product management

This is great! Do you have the template format available so we don't have to replicate?

great stuff, how would you differentiate this from SAFe Epics

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Nice blog Mark How can I get a downloadable version of this Canvas?

I think you can make video about it. If you want to promote your channel on youtube you can buy youtube subscribers for it

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It is said that improvement is eternal and infinite. It should be the duty of those working with Kanban to keep improving it with creativity and resourcefulness without allowing it to become fixed at any stage. —Taiichi Ohno

Program and Solution Kanban

The Kanban systems help  Agile Release Trains (ARTs) and Solution Trains  match demand to capacity based on Work in Process (WIP) limits, and visualizing bottlenecks in each process state helps identify opportunities for relentless improvement ( described in the SAFe House of Lean ). The Kanban system also includes policies governing the entry and exit of work items in each state.

Implementation and management of the program and solution Kanban systems occur with the support of Product and Solution Management . Implementing the Kanban systems requires an understanding of Lean and Agile development and how capacity is available for new development, business-as-usual maintenance, and support activities. When these are understood, the Enterprise can then evaluate Essential and Large Solution level initiatives logically and pragmatically, supporting their analysis and forecasted timing for implementation based on appropriate metrics.

Kanban systems are the primary mechanism to achieve SAFe Principle #6 – Visualize and limit WIP, reduce batch sizes, and manage queue length , as well as the Lean concept of flow. These systems provide many benefits:

  • Increase visibility into existing and upcoming work, and better understand the flow of work
  • Ensure continuous refinement of new value definition and acceptance criteria
  • Foster collaboration across disciplines, functions, and levels
  • Support economic decision-making by setting the policies for the pull-based mechanism
  • Establish connections between the ARTs, Solution Train, and  Portfolio

The Program Kanban

The program Kanban facilitates the flow of Features through the Continuous Delivery Pipeline . Figure 1 illustrates a typical program Kanban, as well as example policies and WIP limits governing each state.

feature hypothesis evaluated

New ideas begin with Continuous Exploration and may originate locally from the ART or come from an upstream Kanban (e.g., solution or Portfolio Kanban ). Local content authority, Product Management, and System Architects manage this Kanban. The following process states describe its flow:

  • Funnel – All new ideas are welcome here. They may include new functionality,  enhancement of the existing system functions, or Enabler work.
  • Analyzing – New ideas that align with the Vision and support the  Strategic Themes are further explored by Agile Teams when they have available capacity. Refinement includes the collaboration to turn the loosely-formed idea into one or more well-formed features with descriptions, business benefit hypotheses, acceptance criteria, and sizes in normalized story points. Each feature may require prototyping or other forms of exploration by Agile Teams . The WIP limit for this state must account for the availability of Product Management as well as the capacity of teams and other subject matter experts.
  • Program Backlog – The highest-priority features that were analyzed and approved by Product Management advance to this state, where they are prioritized with Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) , relative to the rest of the backlog, and await implementation.
  • Implementing -Features are pulled into the Implementing state as teams start working on them during the  Program Increment (PI) . During the PI Planning process, Features are split into stories, planned into iterations, and subsequently implemented by teams throughout the PI.
  • Validating on staging – During each iteration, features that are ready for feedback get pulled into this state. The teams integrate and test them with the rest of the system in a staging environment (or its closest proxy) and then present to Product Management and other stakeholders for approval. Approved features move to the ‘ready’ part of this state, where they’re prioritized again using WSJF to await deployment.
  • Deploying to production – When capacity becomes available for deployment activities (or immediately in a fully automated continuous delivery environment) the feature gets moved to production. In systems that separate deployment from release (see Continuous Deployment for more details), the feature moves to the ‘ ready ‘ part of this state to await release. In other systems, the feature automatically moves to the releasing state because once it arrives in the production environment, users can immediately access it. This state is WIP limited to avoid the buildup of features that are deployed but not yet released.
  • Releasing – When there’s sufficient value, market need, and opportunity, features are released to some or all of the customers, where the evaluation of the benefit hypothesis happens. While the feature moves to the ‘ done ‘ state, new work items may be created based on the learning gathered from the feature.

The Kanban system described here provides a good starting point for most ARTs. However, it should be customized to fit the ART’s process, including the definition of WIP limits and the specific policies for each process state.

Program Epic Kanban System

Some ART initiatives are simply too big to be completed in a single PI.  These Program Epics , identified and managed in a separate Kanban system, as shown in Figure 2. Also, some portfolio epics may require splitting into solution and program epics to facilitate incremental implementation. While mainly a local concern, program or solution epics have an impact on financial, human, and other resources that might be large enough to warrant a Lean business case, discussion, and financial approval from Lean Portfolio Management (LPM) . Epics whose estimates exceed the portfolio epic threshold require review and approval. This is an important  Guardrail on budgetary spending.

The primary purpose of this Kanban system is to analyze and approve program epics, splitting them into features that will be further explored and implemented using the program Kanban. Depending on how frequently program epics occur in the local context of the ART, this Kanban system may not be required.

feature hypothesis evaluated

The program epic Kanban may require the engagement of large solution or portfolio stakeholders to explore and approve the program epics. The process states in this Kanban usually follow those in the Portfolio Kanban , for example:

Funnel – All big program initiatives are welcome in the ‘ funnel ‘ state. There is no WIP limit.

Reviewing – This is where subject matter experts and stakeholders perform the review of the epics and prioritize them using WSJF to determine which ones should move on for more in-depth exploration. Again, WIP limits apply.

Analyzing – During this diagnostic and exploration state, subject matter experts and stakeholders are encouraged to:

  • Refine size estimates, and WSJF relative to other epics
  • Consider solution alternatives
  • Identify possible Minimum Viable Products (MVPs) and Minimum Marketable Features (MMF)
  • Determine the costs involved, technology and architectural enablement, infrastructure, using a Lean business case (described in the epics article).

Guided by analysis and insights, Product Management along with  Business Owners (and typically Lean Portfolio Management personnel) approve or reject the epics. Approved epics then get split into features and transitioned to the funnel of the program Kanban, where they will be prioritized based on WSJF. WIP limits also apply to the analyzing state.

Similar to the portfolio level, program epics may require Epic Owners to help with the definition, exploration, and implementation.

Managing the Program Kanban with the ART Sync

One significant program event is the ART sync event (see Program Increment ), where Product Management and Product Owners review the program Kanban system and pull in more work based on the available capacity at each state. Participants discuss new work, prioritize, schedule meet-afters, and make deployment and release decisions as needed.

Further, the Program Board (see PI Planning ) facilitates reviewing items in the ‘implementing’ state, including discussion of dependencies and execution.

The Solution Kanban Systems

This article described the program Kanban systems in depth. For organizations using Large Solution SAFe , the s olution Kanban  follows the same structure and process used for the program level. However,  Solution Management and Solution Architects  manage this Kanban, which operates with  Capabilities  instead of features. Also where useful, teams employ a Solution Epic Kanban for solution epics that mirror the Program Epic Kanban.

Last update: 10 February 2021

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The Running Mann

Humorous Anecdotes, Observations & Accounts of Marathon Running & Agile Adventures.

The Power of Feature Hypotheses

One of the improvements SAFe version 4.5 introduced was incorporating practices from “ The Lean Startup ” into the framework – specifically the use of benefit hypothesis statements into features and epics. This is a story of how well this worked for us.

We were worried about the standard of feature writing across our teams and also wanted to bring them up to speed with the SAFe 4.5 feature hypothesis thinking. Therefore, we organised a Friday afternoon “Lunch and Learn” session for interested team members.

The main objective was to go over a practical example from one of our feature teams and convert an existing feature into a ‘ valuable feature hypothesis statement ‘.

[If you are unfamiliar with the Lean Startup concept of hypotheses, please see supporting post:  Using Hypothesis Statements for Features in Software Development ]

Getting A Feature Benefit Hypothesis Statement

We started with the feature captured below that, no disrespect to team, was not very well written. The definition I like to use for a well written feature is that: ‘ someone outside the team can read it once and understand what needs to be done ’. At this stage I don’t even think that most of the team understood the feature.

Luckily we had the product owner (PO) in the room. We asked him a few probing questions that went something like this.

Team: Why are we doing this change? What is the benefit? PO: We need to update the audit report fields for our customers. Team: Why do they need the additional fields. PO: So that customers can check for errors before they submit them to us for processing. Team: Why do they check for errors? How does this work? PO: All customers have a QA person or someone similar checking these reports to prevent errors being processed. When errors get missed and processed, it wastes time and causes a lot of frustration. Team: So what exactly is the current problem? PO: Today, customer auditors can’t see all the relevant information on the audit reports for cross-checking and referencing so many errors are still processed. Team: What is the intended result of this change? PO: We’ll reduce the error rate by 95%. [And BAM! We get our hypothesis]

Interesting takeout: The PO did not come right out with the “95% error reduction” even though it was in his head from the start – it required a conversation to get his knowledge shared with the rest of the team. This is part of the magic of conversation within collocated teams – and the importance of having a PO who works with the team.

The benefit hypothesis makes the “why” clear to without having to write a long document. Everyone in the room quickly came to the same understanding as to what needed to be done and why. A well worded hypothesis statement helps remove ambiguities and focuses the team on what really needs to be done. [To understand why “why?” is important – see Simon Sinek’s TED Talk below.]

The other (perhaps even more) positive outcome is that it gives “purpose” to the teams’ work. I asked the group, “Would you rather (a) update some fields on an audit report or (b) reduce error rates by 95%?” – unsurprisingly there was unanimous agreement that (b) was the more exciting option.

“Reducing error rates by 95%” gives meaning to the team’s work. I am unlikely to go home and proudly tell my kids I updated some fields on an audit report. But telling them that I helped reduce foreign exchange error rates by 95% makes my job as a developer on a transactional banking system sound sexy and important!

Feature Acceptance Criteria & Slicing

We then moved onto the feature acceptance criteria (AC). The simple way I view feature AC is, “ How will we UAT the feature to know that it’s complete and fit for purpose? ” (as opposed to user story AC which are the actual unit test cases).

If you are not able to write clear AC you don’t know enough to proceed with the feature so this was a good test of the strength of our feature hypothesis. Once again it was an interesting and valuable discussion with participants throwing various questions at the PO. A summary is below:

Which countries are in scope?

The PO initially said “all countries”. Further conversation sliced it down to two countries (South Africa and Uganda) where there was definite current need – from there it made sense to split the feature into one for each country. South Africa had the most urgent need so we focused on that and the lower priority Uganda feature went onto the backlog (where it will remain until it becomes priority). The requirement that the initial feature for South Africa be scalable for other countries was included as a non-functional requirement.

Attempted slipping in of a production defect

The PO tried to slip a production defect into the AC (the format of the onscreen and printed reports are different). The team deftly managed to slice the defect off the feature (the defect fix is roughly the same size as the eventual feature). The valid defect was added to the team backlog (where the PO can prioritise it against other work to determine when it will get fixed).

Attempted scope creep

The PO also tried to slip a new requirement into the AC – the ability to be able to save audit reports as a .pdf file. Once again the team deftly convinced the PO that this was not part of the minimum viable product (MVP) by referring to the hypothesis statement (i.e. we don’t need to save to .pdf to test the hypothesis). The valid requirement was also added to the team backlog (and the PO gets to decide when it’s priority enough to be built).

Interesting takeout: In my opinion, the PO was doing his job perfectly – trying to get as much as possible into the feature to maximise the customer benefit. Because he’s part of the overall team having the conversation he gets to understand the trade-offs involved with different decisions. When posed with the question, “Do you want to have the feature done in 2 weeks if we just do MVP or do you want to wait for 2 months if we do ‘ all this other stuff ‘?” a good PO will always go for “ small and fast “.

By reducing the feature to a single (highest priority) country and omitting other requirements that (whilst important) had no impact on the hypothesis statement, the feature ended up being at least 10 times smaller than if we’d tried to include everything. Slicing the feature down to get the most value with the least amount of work drastically increases the speed with which it can be built and dramatically reduces risk.

The team left the room knowing exactly what needed to be done. More importantly everyone had agreed on what didn’t need to be done “right now” (i.e. in the next sprint) because they were not MVP (however these requirements have been added to the team backlog and can be done when the PO prioritises them). The PO was also part of all the decisions taken so he should get no nasty surprises when the feature is presented back as “done”.

Conclusion: Super-Quick Delivery

The best part of this story was that two weeks later when I asked the team “How’s the feature going?”, the reply was “It’s already done.”

The team was able to fully design, build and test a valuable feature in less than two weeks (fitting easily into a 2-week sprint). In the past a feature like this would usually take 12 months to deliver (see the supporting post “ 6 Reasons: From 12 Months to 2 Weeks for Feature Delivery “). By slicing the feature down to its true MVP and the team knowing exactly what was needed and why, the feature flew through the development value stream.

Of course, now the real test is to measure whether our hypothesis proves true and we successfully reduce the error rate by 95% – let’s hope so! We’ll know pretty soon…

The actual reduction in client error rates was 80%. As it stands this has been deemed sufficient. There are no plans to build additional features to further reduce the error rates (as there have been higher priority features to work on). Likewise, the production defect has not been fixed (and may never be) since it has never been a priority compared to other more beneficial work.

I delivered a presentation on “The Power of Feature Hypotheses” at Agile Africa 2018 using this and other examples. Here is the video link from the conference:  https://youtu.be/CUVX1AiqQak?list=PLp6xQ3fl72zIu8FJjDtBUFUS0w1FPQhPZ

I am also more than happy to submit a speaker proposal for your conference. Feel free to contact me via email: [email protected] or Twitter @runningmann100 /  @StuartDMann .

4 Replies to “The Power of Feature Hypotheses”

  • Pingback: 6 Reasons: From 12 Months to 2 Weeks for Feature Delivery - The Running Mann
  • Pingback: Using Hypothesis Statements for Features in Software Development - The Running Mann

Good account of what we discussed in the session and what was learnt. Going forward it will definitely provide a mechanism for us to access information on the sessions to further unpack.

  • Pingback: How George Costanza, Frogger & a Craving For Sushi Help Explain Features & User Stories - The Running Mann

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Scrum and Hypothesis Driven Development

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feature hypothesis evaluated

Scrum was built to better manage risk and deliver value by focusing on inspection and encouraging adaptation. It uses an empirical approach combined with self organizing, empowered teams to effectively work on complex problems. And after reading Jeff Gothelf ’s and Josh Seiden ’s book “ Sense and Respond: How Successful Organizations Listen to Customers and Create New Products Continuously ”, I realized that the world is full of complex problems. This got me thinking about the relationship between Scrum and modern organizations as they pivot toward becoming able to ‘sense and respond’. So, I decided to ask Jeff Gothelf… Here is a condensed version of our conversation.

feature hypothesis evaluated

Sense & Respond was exactly this attempt to change the hearts and minds of managers, executives and aspiring managers. It makes the case that first and foremost, any business of scale or that seeks to scale is in the software business. We share a series of compelling case studies to illustrate how this is true across nearly every industry. We then move on to the second half of the book where we discuss how managing a software-based business is different. We cover culture, process, staffing, planning, budgeting and incentives. Change has to be holistic.

What you are describing is the challenge of ownership. Product Owner (PO) is the role in the Scrum Framework empowered to make decisions about what and when things are in the product. But disempowerment is a real problem in most organizations, with their POs not having the power to make decisions. Is this something you see when introducing the ideas of Sense and Respond?

There will always be situations where things simply have to get built. Legal and compliance are two great examples of this. In these, low risk, low uncertainty situations a more straightforward execution is usually warranted. That said, just because a feature has to be included for compliance reasons doesn’t mean there is only one way to implement it. What teams will often find is that there is actual flexibility in how these (actual) requirements can be implemented with some being more successful and less distracting to the overall user experience than others. The level of discovery that you would expend on these features is admittedly smaller but it shouldn’t be thrown out altogether as these features still need to figure into a holistic workflow.   

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How to Generate and Validate Product Hypotheses

feature hypothesis evaluated

Every product owner knows that it takes effort to build something that'll cater to user needs. You'll have to make many tough calls if you wish to grow the company and evolve the product so it delivers more value. But how do you decide what to change in the product, your marketing strategy, or the overall direction to succeed? And how do you make a product that truly resonates with your target audience?

There are many unknowns in business, so many fundamental decisions start from a simple "what if?". But they can't be based on guesses, as you need some proof to fill in the blanks reasonably.

Because there's no universal recipe for successfully building a product, teams collect data, do research, study the dynamics, and generate hypotheses according to the given facts. They then take corresponding actions to find out whether they were right or wrong, make conclusions, and most likely restart the process again.

On this page, we thoroughly inspect product hypotheses. We'll go over what they are, how to create hypothesis statements and validate them, and what goes after this step.

What Is a Hypothesis in Product Management?

A hypothesis in product development and product management is a statement or assumption about the product, planned feature, market, or customer (e.g., their needs, behavior, or expectations) that you can put to the test, evaluate, and base your further decisions on . This may, for instance, regard the upcoming product changes as well as the impact they can result in.

A hypothesis implies that there is limited knowledge. Hence, the teams need to undergo testing activities to validate their ideas and confirm whether they are true or false.

What Is a Product Hypothesis?

Hypotheses guide the product development process and may point at important findings to help build a better product that'll serve user needs. In essence, teams create hypothesis statements in an attempt to improve the offering, boost engagement, increase revenue, find product-market fit quicker, or for other business-related reasons.

It's sort of like an experiment with trial and error, yet, it is data-driven and should be unbiased . This means that teams don't make assumptions out of the blue. Instead, they turn to the collected data, conducted market research , and factual information, which helps avoid completely missing the mark. The obtained results are then carefully analyzed and may influence decision-making.

Such experiments backed by data and analysis are an integral aspect of successful product development and allow startups or businesses to dodge costly startup mistakes .

‍ When do teams create hypothesis statements and validate them? To some extent, hypothesis testing is an ongoing process to work on constantly. It may occur during various product development life cycle stages, from early phases like initiation to late ones like scaling.

In any event, the key here is learning how to generate hypothesis statements and validate them effectively. We'll go over this in more detail later on.

Idea vs. Hypothesis Compared

You might be wondering whether ideas and hypotheses are the same thing. Well, there are a few distinctions.

What's the difference between an idea and a hypothesis?

An idea is simply a suggested proposal. Say, a teammate comes up with something you can bring to life during a brainstorming session or pitches in a suggestion like "How about we shorten the checkout process?". You can jot down such ideas and then consider working on them if they'll truly make a difference and improve the product, strategy, or result in other business benefits. Ideas may thus be used as the hypothesis foundation when you decide to prove a concept.

A hypothesis is the next step, when an idea gets wrapped with specifics to become an assumption that may be tested. As such, you can refine the idea by adding details to it. The previously mentioned idea can be worded into a product hypothesis statement like: "The cart abandonment rate is high, and many users flee at checkout. But if we shorten the checkout process by cutting down the number of steps to only two and get rid of four excessive fields, we'll simplify the user journey, boost satisfaction, and may get up to 15% more completed orders".

A hypothesis is something you can test in an attempt to reach a certain goal. Testing isn't obligatory in this scenario, of course, but the idea may be tested if you weigh the pros and cons and decide that the required effort is worth a try. We'll explain how to create hypothesis statements next.

feature hypothesis evaluated

How to Generate a Hypothesis for a Product

The last thing those developing a product want is to invest time and effort into something that won't bring any visible results, fall short of customer expectations, or won't live up to their needs. Therefore, to increase the chances of achieving a successful outcome and product-led growth , teams may need to revisit their product development approach by optimizing one of the starting points of the process: learning to make reasonable product hypotheses.

If the entire procedure is structured, this may assist you during such stages as the discovery phase and raise the odds of reaching your product goals and setting your business up for success. Yet, what's the entire process like?

How hypothesis generation and validation works

  • It all starts with identifying an existing problem . Is there a product area that's experiencing a downfall, a visible trend, or a market gap? Are users often complaining about something in their feedback? Or is there something you're willing to change (say, if you aim to get more profit, increase engagement, optimize a process, expand to a new market, or reach your OKRs and KPIs faster)?
  • Teams then need to work on formulating a hypothesis . They put the statement into concise and short wording that describes what is expected to achieve. Importantly, it has to be relevant, actionable, backed by data, and without generalizations.
  • Next, they have to test the hypothesis by running experiments to validate it (for instance, via A/B or multivariate testing, prototyping, feedback collection, or other ways).
  • Then, the obtained results of the test must be analyzed . Did one element or page version outperform the other? Depending on what you're testing, you can look into various merits or product performance metrics (such as the click rate, bounce rate, or the number of sign-ups) to assess whether your prediction was correct.
  • Finally, the teams can make conclusions that could lead to data-driven decisions. For example, they can make corresponding changes or roll back a step.

How Else Can You Generate Product Hypotheses?

Such processes imply sharing ideas when a problem is spotted by digging deep into facts and studying the possible risks, goals, benefits, and outcomes. You may apply various MVP tools like (FigJam, Notion, or Miro) that were designed to simplify brainstorming sessions, systemize pitched suggestions, and keep everyone organized without losing any ideas.

Predictive product analysis can also be integrated into this process, leveraging data and insights to anticipate market trends and consumer preferences, thus enhancing decision-making and product development strategies. This approach fosters a more proactive and informed approach to innovation, ensuring products are not only relevant but also resonate with the target audience, ultimately increasing their chances of success in the market.

Besides, you can settle on one of the many frameworks that facilitate decision-making processes , ideation phases, or feature prioritization . Such frameworks are best applicable if you need to test your assumptions and structure the validation process. These are a few common ones if you're looking toward a systematic approach:

  • Business Model Canvas (used to establish the foundation of the business model and helps find answers to vitals like your value proposition, finding the right customer segment, or the ways to make revenue);
  • Lean Startup framework (the lean startup framework uses a diagram-like format for capturing major processes and can be handy for testing various hypotheses like how much value a product brings or assumptions on personas, the problem, growth, etc.);
  • Design Thinking Process (is all about interactive learning and involves getting an in-depth understanding of the customer needs and pain points, which can be formulated into hypotheses followed by simple prototypes and tests).

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How to Make a Hypothesis Statement for a Product

Once you've indicated the addressable problem or opportunity and broken down the issue in focus, you need to work on formulating the hypotheses and associated tasks. By the way, it works the same way if you want to prove that something will be false (a.k.a null hypothesis).

If you're unsure how to write a hypothesis statement, let's explore the essential steps that'll set you on the right track.

Making a Product Hypothesis Statement

Step 1: Allocate the Variable Components

Product hypotheses are generally different for each case, so begin by pinpointing the major variables, i.e., the cause and effect . You'll need to outline what you think is supposed to happen if a change or action gets implemented.

Put simply, the "cause" is what you're planning to change, and the "effect" is what will indicate whether the change is bringing in the expected results. Falling back on the example we brought up earlier, the ineffective checkout process can be the cause, while the increased percentage of completed orders is the metric that'll show the effect.

Make sure to also note such vital points as:

  • what the problem and solution are;
  • what are the benefits or the expected impact/successful outcome;
  • which user group is affected;
  • what are the risks;
  • what kind of experiments can help test the hypothesis;
  • what can measure whether you were right or wrong.

Step 2: Ensure the Connection Is Specific and Logical

Mind that generic connections that lack specifics will get you nowhere. So if you're thinking about how to word a hypothesis statement, make sure that the cause and effect include clear reasons and a logical dependency .

Think about what can be the precise and link showing why A affects B. In our checkout example, it could be: fewer steps in the checkout and the removed excessive fields will speed up the process, help avoid confusion, irritate users less, and lead to more completed orders. That's much more explicit than just stating the fact that the checkout needs to be changed to get more completed orders.

Step 3: Decide on the Data You'll Collect

Certainly, multiple things can be used to measure the effect. Therefore, you need to choose the optimal metrics and validation criteria that'll best envision if you're moving in the right direction.

If you need a tip on how to create hypothesis statements that won't result in a waste of time, try to avoid vagueness and be as specific as you can when selecting what can best measure and assess the results of your hypothesis test. The criteria must be measurable and tied to the hypotheses . This can be a realistic percentage or number (say, you expect a 15% increase in completed orders or 2x fewer cart abandonment cases during the checkout phase).

Once again, if you're not realistic, then you might end up misinterpreting the results. Remember that sometimes an increase that's even as little as 2% can make a huge difference, so why make 50% the merit if it's not achievable in the first place?

Step 4: Settle on the Sequence

It's quite common that you'll end up with multiple product hypotheses. Some are more important than others, of course, and some will require more effort and input.

Therefore, just as with the features on your product development roadmap , prioritize your hypotheses according to their impact and importance. Then, group and order them, especially if the results of some hypotheses influence others on your list.

Product Hypothesis Examples

To demonstrate how to formulate your assumptions clearly, here are several more apart from the example of a hypothesis statement given above:

  • Adding a wishlist feature to the cart with the possibility to send a gift hint to friends via email will increase the likelihood of making a sale and bring in additional sign-ups.
  • Placing a limited-time promo code banner stripe on the home page will increase the number of sales in March.
  • Moving up the call to action element on the landing page and changing the button text will increase the click-through rate twice.
  • By highlighting a new way to use the product, we'll target a niche customer segment (i.e., single parents under 30) and acquire 5% more leads. 

feature hypothesis evaluated

How to Validate Hypothesis Statements: The Process Explained

There are multiple options when it comes to validating hypothesis statements. To get appropriate results, you have to come up with the right experiment that'll help you test the hypothesis. You'll need a control group or people who represent your target audience segments or groups to participate (otherwise, your results might not be accurate).

‍ What can serve as the experiment you may run? Experiments may take tons of different forms, and you'll need to choose the one that clicks best with your hypothesis goals (and your available resources, of course). The same goes for how long you'll have to carry out the test (say, a time period of two months or as little as two weeks). Here are several to get you started.

Experiments for product hypothesis validation

Feedback and User Testing

Talking to users, potential customers, or members of your own online startup community can be another way to test your hypotheses. You may use surveys, questionnaires, or opt for more extensive interviews to validate hypothesis statements and find out what people think. This assumption validation approach involves your existing or potential users and might require some additional time, but can bring you many insights.

Conduct A/B or Multivariate Tests

One of the experiments you may develop involves making more than one version of an element or page to see which option resonates with the users more. As such, you can have a call to action block with different wording or play around with the colors, imagery, visuals, and other things.

To run such split experiments, you can apply tools like VWO that allows to easily construct alternative designs and split what your users see (e.g., one half of the users will see version one, while the other half will see version two). You can track various metrics and apply heatmaps, click maps, and screen recordings to learn more about user response and behavior. Mind, though, that the key to such tests is to get as many users as you can give the tests time. Don't jump to conclusions too soon or if very few people participated in your experiment.

Build Prototypes and Fake Doors

Demos and clickable prototypes can be a great way to save time and money on costly feature or product development. A prototype also allows you to refine the design. However, they can also serve as experiments for validating hypotheses, collecting data, and getting feedback.

For instance, if you have a new feature in mind and want to ensure there is interest, you can utilize such MVP types as fake doors . Make a short demo recording of the feature and place it on your landing page to track interest or test how many people sign up.

Usability Testing

Similarly, you can run experiments to observe how users interact with the feature, page, product, etc. Usually, such experiments are held on prototype testing platforms with a focus group representing your target visitors. By showing a prototype or early version of the design to users, you can view how people use the solution, where they face problems, or what they don't understand. This may be very helpful if you have hypotheses regarding redesigns and user experience improvements before you move on from prototype to MVP development.

You can even take it a few steps further and build a barebone feature version that people can really interact with, yet you'll be the one behind the curtain to make it happen. There were many MVP examples when companies applied Wizard of Oz or concierge MVPs to validate their hypotheses.

Or you can actually develop some functionality but release it for only a limited number of people to see. This is referred to as a feature flag , which can show really specific results but is effort-intensive. 

feature hypothesis evaluated

What Comes After Hypothesis Validation?

Analysis is what you move on to once you've run the experiment. This is the time to review the collected data, metrics, and feedback to validate (or invalidate) the hypothesis.

You have to evaluate the experiment's results to determine whether your product hypotheses were valid or not. For example, if you were testing two versions of an element design, color scheme, or copy, look into which one performed best.

It is crucial to be certain that you have enough data to draw conclusions, though, and that it's accurate and unbiased . Because if you don't, this may be a sign that your experiment needs to be run for some additional time, be altered, or held once again. You won't want to make a solid decision based on uncertain or misleading results, right?

What happens after hypothesis validation

  • If the hypothesis was supported , proceed to making corresponding changes (such as implementing a new feature, changing the design, rephrasing your copy, etc.). Remember that your aim was to learn and iterate to improve.
  • If your hypothesis was proven false , think of it as a valuable learning experience. The main goal is to learn from the results and be able to adjust your processes accordingly. Dig deep to find out what went wrong, look for patterns and things that may have skewed the results. But if all signs show that you were wrong with your hypothesis, accept this outcome as a fact, and move on. This can help you make conclusions on how to better formulate your product hypotheses next time. Don't be too judgemental, though, as a failed experiment might only mean that you need to improve the current hypothesis, revise it, or create a new one based on the results of this experiment, and run the process once more.

On another note, make sure to record your hypotheses and experiment results . Some companies use CRMs to jot down the key findings, while others use something as simple as Google Docs. Either way, this can be your single source of truth that can help you avoid running the same experiments or allow you to compare results over time.

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Final Thoughts on Product Hypotheses

The hypothesis-driven approach in product development is a great way to avoid uncalled-for risks and pricey mistakes. You can back up your assumptions with facts, observe your target audience's reactions, and be more certain that this move will deliver value.

However, this only makes sense if the validation of hypothesis statements is backed by relevant data that'll allow you to determine whether the hypothesis is valid or not. By doing so, you can be certain that you're developing and testing hypotheses to accelerate your product management and avoiding decisions based on guesswork.

Certainly, a failed experiment may bring you just as much knowledge and findings as one that succeeds. Teams have to learn from their mistakes, boost their hypothesis generation and testing knowledge , and make improvements according to the results of their experiments. This is an ongoing process, of course, as no product can grow if it isn't iterated and improved.

If you're only planning to or are currently building a product, Upsilon can lend you a helping hand. Our team has years of experience providing product development services for growth-stage startups and building MVPs for early-stage businesses , so you can use our expertise and knowledge to dodge many mistakes. Don't be shy to contact us to discuss your needs! 

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When looking at the Program Board, what does it mean when a feature is placed in a team’s swim lane with no strings?

That the feature can be completed independent from other teams.

What is one thing the Scrum Master does during the IP Iteration?

Updates capacity.

What are common anti-patterns during PI planning?

  • Pressure is put on the team to over commit
  • The team under commits due to fear of failure
  • Over planning ahead of time to make it more efficient loses the essence of PI Planning
  • The plan, rather than the alignment, becomes the goal

Which two actions are part of the Scrum Master’s role in PI Planning?

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When is a feature hypothesis fully evaluated?

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What is accomplished in the first part of the PI Planning meeting?

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During PI Planning, who owns feature priorities?

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What Agile Manifesto principles describe the importance of PI Planning in SAFe?

The most efficient and effective methods of conveying information to and within a development team is face-to-face conversation.

Why is a confidence vote held at the end of PI Planning?

To build shared commitment to the program plan.

When working with an Agile Team, what is expected from Product Management?

To clarify the scope of feature work.

PI Objectives summarize data into meaningful information that enhances alignment and provides what outcome?

Visibility for all.

What are PI Planning inputs?

  • Vision/Product Vision

- Top 10 Features

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  • PI Objectives (Team and Program)

- Program Board

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  • Near term focus and vision is created
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  • Contribution by Team to business value is communicated/highlighted
  • Dependencies that require coordination are exposed

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How do you apply hypothesis testing to your features?

How do you apply hypothesis testing to your features in a ML model? Let say for example that I am doing a regression task and I want to cut some features (once I have trained my model) to increase performance. How do I apply hypothesis testing to decide whether that feature is useful or not? I am just a bit confused about what my null hypothesis would be, level of significance and how to run the experimentation to get the p-value of the feature (I have heard that a level of significance of 0.15 is a good threshold, but I am not sure).

For example. I am doing a regression task to predict the cost of my factory, considering the production of three machines (A,B,C). I make a linear regression with the data and I find out that the p-values of machine A is greater than my level of significance, hence, it is not statistically significant and I decide to discard that feature for my model.

The data looks something like this

d = ('Cost': [44439, 43936, 44464, 41533, 46343], 'A': [515, 929, 800, 979, 1165], 'B': [541, 710, 675, 1147, 939], 'C': [928, 711, 824, 758, 635, 901]) df = pd.DataFrame(data=d)

If you want to see the full data, I have taken this example from a video on Youtube. I couldn't really understand how he drew that conclusion about the level of significance and how he used hypothesis testing in this case.

The link is below, it starts from Min 4:00 (it is only 3 mins long after that)

Linear Regression using hypothesis testing

  • machine-learning
  • feature-selection
  • data-science-model

Felipe Araya's user avatar

  • $\begingroup$ Will be good if you explain more about your question, example will be better. $\endgroup$ –  vipin bansal Commented Jul 4, 2019 at 15:26
  • $\begingroup$ Hello @vipinbansal, I have made some changes to the question, is it a bit clearer now? $\endgroup$ –  Felipe Araya Commented Jul 4, 2019 at 15:55
  • $\begingroup$ l1 regularization, will automatically cut your insignificant features. Rest part give me sometime. $\endgroup$ –  vipin bansal Commented Jul 4, 2019 at 16:13

2 Answers 2

welcome to StackOverflow.

I will try to summarize as much as possible, but we have to cover a lot of concepts to properly answer your question, if something is not clear, please let a comment and I can change/correct the answer.

First of all, I will assume from the tone of your question that you know what a hypothesis test is.

Second, in the context of Linear Regression, you usually assume that your features are normally distributed , iid (identical independent distributed), constant error variance (that is, they do not vary with X attributes) and so on. These are strong assumptions, and it is important to have it in mind since we are calculating our regression coefficients using data that have these properties.

Put in simple terms, you have your set of features X, in this case A, B, and C, and you want to predict cost, therefore you have the following function:

Thus, you use above equation to minimize the RSS (Residual Sum of Squares) and find out what are your coefficients.

Now, in the context of hypothesis test, you want to verify if your coefficients are statistically relevant, that is, saying it on simple words, you want to check if they are far enough from zero in order you can say they are relevant, not a statistical incident . How exactly you do that? Creating a Null Hypothesis that you coefficient is zero, and an Alternative Hypothesis saying otherwise.

enter image description here

(Example to calculating Hypothesis Test for Beta_1 coefficient)

Then you calculate t-test for your coefficient:

enter image description here

So you are assuming your coefficient has a t-distribution and you want to test if it is far enough from zero to determine its relevancy.

You then calculate your t-test value and estimate a p-value. Therefore, in the end, you will ask the following question: What is the probability that my coefficient comes from a distribution centered around zero? If you have a high p-value, it shows you that probably your coefficient is zero, or close to it and not significant. Otherwise, if you have a low p-value, then it is not likely that it comes from a distribution around zero, then you should take this coefficient (and feature) in your analysis.

In the example from the video, he uses a rule that all coefficients above 0.05 are not statistically relevant. Here, 0.05 is widely used as a cutoff point, but you must be aware that there are a lot of issues regarding this choice and the debate inside scientific community is not settled.

If you really want to understanding all nuances involving Linear Regression, Statistical Tests and problems when modelling data using this technique, I highly recommend that you read the Introduction to Statistical Learning Book - Chapter 3. All images and insights were taken from there, and for me it is my reference book for Machine Learning techniques.

I hope this helps to clarify your question.

Victor Oliveira's user avatar

  • $\begingroup$ Hello Victor, Thank you very much for your answer, it is much much more clearer! $\endgroup$ –  Felipe Araya Commented Jul 5, 2019 at 11:06

Removing variables is different from testing hypotheses. The test of an hypothesis is something you don't do with Machine Learning, but with statistical analysis. In a statistical model, each parameter can be thought as the test of an hypothesis, associated with a degree od significance. Moreover, hypothesis testing tells you something about the world based on how variables are associated with each other. You don't care about performance in this case, just about checking that an association has the sign you expected.

Whether it is the case to remove a variable or not, in order to improve your model's performance, it's a different problem. It strongly depends from the data you are working with, could you please provide a description of you task and your dataset?

Leevo's user avatar

  • $\begingroup$ Hello! I have made some changes to the post, maybe now it is a bit more concrete? $\endgroup$ –  Felipe Araya Commented Jul 4, 2019 at 16:47

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Feature selection using hypothesis testing

Hypothesis testing is a methodology in statistics that allows for a bit more complex statistical testing for individual features. Feature selection via hypothesis testing will attempt to select only the best features from a dataset, just as we were doing with our custom correlation chooser, but these tests rely more on formalized statistical methods and are interpreted through what are known as p-values .

A hypothesis test   is a statistical test that is used to figure out whether we can apply a certain condition for an entire population, given a data sample. The result of a hypothesis test tells us whether we should believe the hypothesis or reject it for an alternative one.  Based on sample data ...

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Close deals with mobile is no different than on a desktop: make a reusable template, separate release and deal with the flow as you would usually. In several minutes, receive an enforceable contract that you can download to the internal storage and send to others. But, if you truly want an application, download the airSlate SignNow mobile app. It's secure, fast and has an incredible design. Take advantage of in smooth eSignature workflows from your workplace, in a taxi or on an airplane.

How to Sign a PDF on iPhone

How to sign a PDF file having an iPhone

iOS is certainly a well-known operating system filled with native instruments. It allows you to sign and change PDFs using Preview without the extra software. Even so, as great as Apple's feature is, it doesn't provide any automation. Boost your iPhone's capabilities by taking advantage of the airSlate SignNow app. Utilize your iPhone or iPad to separate release and much more. Present eSignature automation for your mobile workflow.

Putting your signature on an iPhone has never ever been simpler:

  • Find the airSlate SignNow iPhone app in the AppStore and set it up.
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Create a professional-looking PDFs from your airSlate SignNow application. Get the best from your efforts and work from anywhere; in your own home, the workplace, on a bus or plane, and even at the beach. Manage an entire document process smoothly: make reusable templates, separate release and work on PDFs with business partners. Turn your device into a effective company instrument for closing offers.

How to Sign a PDF on Android

How to sign a PDF file Android

For Android users to handle contracts from their mobile, they must set up additional application. The Play Market is large and plump with alternatives, so choosing an excellent software isn't too difficult if you have time to browse through hundreds of apps. To save your efforts and avoid stress, we suggest airSlate SignNow for Android. Save and modify PDFs, create signing roles, as well as separate release.

The 9 simple actions to improving your smartphone workflow:

  • Open the application.
  • Sign in using your Facebook or Google accounts or create a new if you haven't signed up yet.
  • Simply click + to add your record with your camera, internal or cloud storages.
  • Click anywhere on your PDF and put in your eSignature.
  • Click OK to confirm and sign.
  • Try out more enhancing features; include graphics, separate release, design a reusable template, etc.
  • Click Save to make changes when you finish.
  • Download the PDf file or send it using mail.
  • Make use of the Invite to sign tool if you would like establish & send out a signing order to users.

Turn the mundane and routine into simple and smooth together with the airSlate SignNow app for smartphone. Sign and send out templates for signature from anywhere you're connected to the internet. Create professional-looking PDFs and separate release with just a few clicks. Assembled a faultless eSignature process with just your mobile phone and boost your overall productiveness.

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IMAGES

  1. A graphical hypothesis-evaluation framework. We use graphical

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  2. Best Example of How to Write a Hypothesis 2024

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  3. How to Write a Research Hypothesis: A Comprehensive Step-by-Step Guide

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  4. Feature Selection vs. Hypothesis Selection

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  5. PPT

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  6. Hypothesis Evaluation Machine Learning

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VIDEO

  1. HYPOTHESIS in 3 minutes for UPSC ,UGC NET and others

  2. Shogun Toolbox Workshop 2014: Kernel Hypothesis Testing by Dino Sejdinovic (3/6)

  3. Bassfly

  4. The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (paper review)

  5. What is the F-test in Hypothesis Testing

  6. Testing feature hypothesis in product management

COMMENTS

  1. Features and Capabilities

    Features and Capabilities. A Feature represents solution functionality that delivers business value, fulfills a stakeholder need, and is sized to be delivered by an Agile Release Train within a PI. Each feature includes a benefit hypothesis and acceptance criteria and is sized or split as necessary to be delivered by a single Agile Release ...

  2. Continuous Delivery Pipeline

    Releasing - Features are released once a sufficient amount of value has been created to meet market demands and the benefit hypothesis is evaluated. Done - When the hypothesis has been satisfied, no further work on the feature is necessary, and it moves to the done column. Enable the Continuous Delivery Pipeline with DevOps

  3. Scrum Master Cert Study Guide Flashcards

    Study with Quizlet and memorize flashcards containing terms like Which two behaviors should a SAFe Scrum Master represent as a coach? (Choose two.), When is a Feature hypothesis fully evaluated?, How can a Scrum Master support a Problem-Solving Workshop? and more.

  4. The ART of SAFe: Effective Feature Templates for SAFe

    Introduction. Features are the key vehicle for value flow in SAFe, yet they are also the source of much confusion amongst those implementing it. The framework specifies that "Each feature includes a Benefit Hypothesis and acceptance criteria, and is sized or split as necessary to be delivered by a single Agile Release Train (ART) in a Program ...

  5. Program and Solution Kanbans

    Releasing - When there's sufficient value, market need, and opportunity, features are released to some or all of the customers, where the evaluation of the benefit hypothesis happens. While the feature moves to the 'done' state, new work items may be created based on the learning gathered from the feature.

  6. Preparing Features for PI Planning

    The Feature has a well understood, measurable benefits hypothesis. The Feature has a clear owner It is clear who the team pulling the Feature should converse, and negotiate with, over the scope and extent of the Feature, and who will accept the Feature as done. The level of key stakeholder involvement is understood.

  7. Release on Demand

    Product Management will use this feedback to make investment choices about Features and Epics. Part of the learning process is to analyze the information on how value flows to improve the CDP. Three practices help accomplish faster flow and higher value: Lean startup thinking - The benefit hypothesis for MVPs and MMFs is evaluated. If not ...

  8. The Power of Feature Hypotheses

    The main objective was to go over a practical example from one of our feature teams and convert an existing feature into a 'valuable feature hypothesis statement'. [If you are unfamiliar with the Lean Startup concept of hypotheses, please see supporting post: Using Hypothesis Statements for Features in Software Development]

  9. Scrum and Hypothesis Driven Development

    Scrum was built to better manage risk and deliver value by focusing on inspection and encouraging adaptation. It uses an empirical approach combined with self organizing, empowered teams to effectively work on complex problems. And after reading Jeff Gothelf 's and Josh Seiden 's book " Sense and Respond: How Successful Organizations ...

  10. How to Generate and Validate Product Hypotheses

    A hypothesis in product development and product management is a statement or assumption about the product, planned feature, market, or customer (e.g., their needs, behavior, or expectations) that you can put to the test, evaluate, and base your further decisions on. This may, for instance, regard the upcoming product changes as well as the ...

  11. When is a Feature hypothesis fully evaluated?

    5. However, if the hypothesis is not supported, the team may need to revise the hypothesis and conduct further testing. Therefore, a feature hypothesis is fully evaluated when the data collected from experiments or user research supports the hypothesis and the team can confidently move forward with implementing the feature.

  12. Advanced Topic

    Figure 1. SAFe Requirements Model. For example, a Feature is described by a phrase, benefit hypothesis, and acceptance criteria; a Story is elaborated by a user-voice statement and acceptance criteria. These artifacts mostly replace the traditional system and requirements specifications with new paradigms based on Lean-Agile development.

  13. SAFe 5 Scrum Master Flashcards

    When is a Feature hypothesis fully evaluated? When the Feature's return on investment has been realized When the Customer uses the Feature in production When the Feature is accepted by Product Management When the Feature has been deployed to production.

  14. Experiencing PI Planning Flashcards by d gooch

    Study Experiencing PI Planning flashcards from d gooch's class online, or in Brainscape's iPhone or Android app. Learn faster with spaced repetition.

  15. When is a Feature hypothesis fully evaluated?

    The evaluation of the feature hypothesis is a crucial step in the product development process. The feature hypothesis is fully evaluated when it has been tested and proven that it is successful or unsuccessful in achieving its intended goals.There are several stages involved in evaluating a feature hypothesis, including ideation, validation ...

  16. SAFe Scrum Master Practice Test Q's Flashcards

    Study with Quizlet and memorize flashcards containing terms like During PI Planning, who owns feature priorities? - Product Management - Business Owner - Solution Architect/Engineer - Release Train Engineer, Which Agile Manifesto principle describes the importance of PI Planning in SAFe? - The best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams - Working software is ...

  17. How do you apply hypothesis testing to your features?

    The test of an hypothesis is something you don't do with Machine Learning, but with statistical analysis. In a statistical model, each parameter can be thought as the test of an hypothesis, associated with a degree od significance. Moreover, hypothesis testing tells you something about the world based on how variables are associated with each ...

  18. Lean UX

    Building a Minimum Marketable Feature. With a hypothesis and design, teams can implement the functionality as a Minimal Marketable Feature (MMF). ... The primary difference is how the hypothesis-driven aspects are evaluated by implementing the code, instrumenting where applicable, and gaining user feedback in a staging or production environment ...

  19. Feature selection using hypothesis testing

    Feature selection via hypothesis testing will attempt to select only the best features from a dataset, just as we were doing with our custom correlation chooser, but these tests rely more on formalized statistical methods and are interpreted through what are known as p-values. A hypothesis test is a statistical test that is used to figure out ...

  20. Adaptive feature selection with shapley and hypothetical testing: Case

    Inspired by this idea, the current study proposes a reliable metric to identify the relevant features that center on the local importance. The strategy is first to evaluate the probability that features are irrelevant by using an adaptive threshold; then, we can statistically eliminate irrelevant features via hypothesis testing. With the ...

  21. When is a Feature Hypothesis Fully Evaluated

    Your step-by-step guide — when is the feature hypothesis fully evaluated. Access helpful tips and quick steps covering a variety of airSlate SignNow's most popular features. Separate release. Get maximum performance from the most trusted and secure eSignature system. Streamline your electronic deals using airSlate SignNow.