short case study on climate change in india

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Physical Risk - Risk Management - Transition Risk

India: A Case Study in Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

This article explores the difficult trade-offs that need to be made between the competing claims of climate mitigation, adaptation, and economic development..

Thursday, September 14, 2023

By Maxine Nelson

This article has been extensively updated, incorporating new COP 27 commitments, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) statements and current green bond issuance. It was originally published Oct. 18, 2021.

After decades of population growth and economic development, India is now the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. In addition, India is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change due to its geography and dependence on agriculture.

It has been estimated that if emissions are not significantly reduced, India could suffer economic losses of USD 35 trillion . Indeed, much of India has been experiencing annual heatwaves followed by intense flooding, and in 2021 alone it experienced even more  extreme weather events — including cyclones and a glacier collapse. Thus, India makes a thought-provoking case study for policymakers and risk professionals given the difficult trade-offs that need to be made between the competing claims of climate mitigation, adaptation and economic development.

Climate Change’s Effect on India

The banking regulator, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) , explains that “India has witnessed changes in climatic patterns in line with the rest of the world… the rainfall pattern, particularly with respect to the [south west monsoon] SWM, which provides around 75 percent of the annual rainfall, has undergone significant changes. Moreover, the occurrence of extreme weather events like floods/unseasonal rainfall, heat waves and cyclones has increased during the past two decades, and data reveal that some of the key agricultural states in India have been the most affected by such events.”

A more recent, detailed RBI study points out that “it is the increased frequency of extreme weather occurrences that is breaking the back of our capability to cope with natural disasters.” As shown by India’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the actions it has committed to take to reduce its emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change — it is among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impact of accelerated sea level rise from global warming. This is due to its long coastline, large number of islands and population of 170 million living in coastal regions.

The RBI also notes that precipitation and temperature — the two key climate indicators — “play a crucial role in the overall health of the Indian economy.” As well as affecting food production, the extreme weather in agricultural states impacts employment and GDP, with approximately 44% of the working population employed in agriculture and allied sectors which contribute about 20% of GDP, according to M.K. Jain, the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank . Several challenges confronting Indian agriculture, including diminishing and degrading natural resources and unprecedented climate change, need to be tackled for the long-term sustainability and viability of Indian agriculture.

However, there is uncertainty over how large the impacts might be. The Swiss Re Institute , for example, estimates a 35% reduction in the level of India’s GDP by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced globally, and approximately a 6% GDP reduction even if the Paris Agreement goals are met. An Oxford Economics report “Estimating the Economic Impact of Global Warming” has framed the impact differently, estimating that India’s GDP could be 90% lower in 2100 than it would be if there was no climate change, suggesting that climate change has the potential to absorb all of India’s future prospective growth in income per capita. And  Deloitte  has estimated USD 35 trillion of economic losses by 2070. While these different approaches produce diverse estimates, they all show that the impact will be big and require additional investments in both mitigation and adaptation.

India’s Effect on Climate Change

Not only will the changing climate have a significant impact on India, but India is also expected to have a significant impact on the climate. Although historically it has not had high emissions, India rose to the number three spot in the national emissions rankings 15 years ago, behind China and the U.S. The RBI noted that “With the increase in population, the cumulative level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has increased, resulting in a rise of average temperature. According to a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), India emitted 2,299 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in 2018, a rise of 4.8% over the previous year.”

Unfortunately, India’s future potential emissions are not yet aligned with the Paris Agreement goals. India’s NDCs currently correspond to temperature increases above 3°C, according to Climate Action Tracker . (You can find out more about NDCs and their place in the Paris Agreement in this  short article . ) India increased its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at COP 26, the 2021 annual meeting of the signatories of the Paris Agreement, where it pledged to cut its emissions to net zero by 2070. While this was a large increase in commitment, it isn’t yet aligned with the worldwide goal of cutting emissions to net zero by 2050 needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Maxine Nelson

In advance of COP 27, India has again increased its commitment and pledged to a 45% reduction in GDP emissions intensity by 2030 — marking an 10% increase from the previous pledge. Any emissions reduction is helpful to mitigate climate change. However, as the pledge is based on emissions intensity and not absolute emissions, emissions can continue increasing as the economy expands. This pledge, therefore, doesn’t meet the net-zero goal of reducing emissions by 45% by 2030. Still, the effort required to overcome the challenge of rapidly expanding an economy while decreasing emissions intensity needs to be appreciated.

To further mitigate climate change, India may need to agree to reduce its emissions even more — a big task for a developing economy with average annual energy consumption of a third the global average, and per capita emissions already 10 times lower than that of the U.S., four times lower than China, and three times lower than Europe. With IPCC reports highlighting the urgency of tackling climate change quickly to reduce the loss and damage for humans and ecosystems, it is even more important that emissions reductions are ambitious.

Financing Mitigation and Adaptation

A 2021 RBI Financial Stability Report noted that climate change and the associated mitigating policy commitments are “set to reshape the macroeconomic and financial landscape”. Extensive funding is needed both to reduce future emissions and to finance the adaptation needed to manage the impacts of climate change. In their 2016 NDC, India estimated that at least USD 2.5 trillion (at 2014-15 prices) would be required for meeting its climate change actions between 2016 and 2030. And the International Energy Agency estimates that nearly 60% of India’s CO 2 emissions in the late 2030s will be coming from infrastructure and machines that do not exist today. If this investment is to be sustainable, USD 1.4 trillion extra funding (above that required for current policies) is needed over the next 20 years.

Like most of the world, green bond issuance in India — which could provide some of this funding — is currently a small proportion of all bond issuance.  The rate of issuance is increasing, however, with USD 21.6 billion of green, sustainable or social bonds issued in 2022. And in 2023, the Government of India entered the green finance market issuing USD 2 billion of green bonds to finance their spending on a range of projects including solar power, green hydrogen and afforestation. As they obtained a greenium (lower financing costs than other equivalent bonds), we should expect to see more of these issued in the future.

There are also substantial opportunities in other financial markets, such as the  development of a derivatives market   to aid adaptation via products such as:

• agricultural commodity derivatives, which can help reduce risks by enabling continuous price discovery and providing hedging
• weather derivatives, which can hedge the risks of high-probability, low-risk events

Of course, meeting the needs of climate change financing carries the usual financial risk implications of any lending. An RBI analysis shows that banks’ direct exposure to fossil fuels (through electricity, chemicals and cars) is 10% of total outstanding non-retail bank credit, so it should have a limited impact on the banking system. However, it notes that many other industries indirectly use fossil fuels and their impacts also need to be closely monitored.

Regulatory Response

The RBI has noted that policy measures such as a deepening of the corporate bond market, standardization of green investment terminology, consistent corporate reporting and removing information asymmetry between investors and recipients can make a significant contribution in addressing some of the shortcomings of the green finance market.

Like in most of the rest of the world, there is an increasing regulatory focus on climate risk. The RBI Governor has stated that guidelines will be issued about disclosure of climate-related risks, and also scenario analysis and stress testing. This followed last year’s RBI consultation which asked for inputs on a comprehensive range of topics from climate risk governance to strategy, and risk monitoring, management and mitigation at regulated entities. This consultation, in turn, built on the results of an RBI survey of banks that was also published last year. The survey found that “although banks have begun taking steps in the area of climate risk and sustainable finance, there remains a need for concerted effort and further action in this regard.” It also found that board-level engagement is inadequate, and few banks had a strategy for incorporating climate risk into their risk management framework. To see what leading climate risk firms are doing globally look at GARP’s whitepaper: “ Climate Risk Leadership: Lessons From 4 Annual Surveys .”

Given the widespread impact of climate change, it isn’t just the banking regulator that is looking at how climate risk will affect firms in its jurisdiction. In 2021, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) mandated that the largest 1,000 listed firms complete a Business Responsibility and Sustainability Report . The report asks for information like material ESG risks and opportunities and their financial implications; sustainability related targets and performance; and their greenhouse gas emissions. Companies’ value chains also need to be assessed. This requirement is being progressively rolled out from 2023 to 2027, with the largest companies also required to get assurance of their disclosures.

In addition, SEBI has altered the rules for mutual funds , allowing them to have multiple ESG schemes with different strategies; in the past, a mutual fund could only have one ESG fund. This increase in scope follows one for green debt securities , which was expanded to include bonds such as blue bonds (sustainable water management and marine sector), yellow bonds (solar energy generation and transmission), transition bonds and adaptation bonds. Both of these expansions in scope should increase financing for sustainability related initiatives.

Reflecting the fact that addressing climate change is a global problem, needing both local and global solutions, the RBI joined the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) in April 2021. The NGFS’s purpose is to strengthen the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and to enhance the role of the financial system to manage risks and to mobilize capital for green and low-carbon investments. These goals align very well with the work India needs to undertake to make not just its financial system resilient to the risks from climate change, but to balance mitigation, adaptation, and economic development across the country.

Maxine Nelson , Ph.D, Senior Vice President, GARP Risk Institute, currently focusses on sustainability and climate risk management. She has extensive experience in risk, capital and regulation gained from a wide variety of roles across firms including Head of Wholesale Credit Analytics at HSBC. She also worked at the U.K. Financial Services Authority, where she was responsible for counterparty credit risk during the last financial crisis.

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From reviving traditional crops to climate-proofing infrastructure: How 5 Indian communities are adapting to climate change

Here's how Indian communities are adapting to the realities of climate change. Image:  Council on Energy, Environment and Water

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• India has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 and continues to prioritise energy and climate change mitigation with its current G20 presidency.
• The country continues to witness the devastating effects of climate change, and the impact on its growing population is starting to show.
• Here, we bring you five stories of communities responding with action as they face the climate reality every day.

At the global level, India is at the forefront of driving action on climate change. Its pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 was one of the most important announcements at COP26.

In August last year, it was reported that the country had submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) - climate action targets - to the UN climate change body.

With its G20 leadership until November this year, India is prioritising energy and climate change mitigation under its slogan 'one earth, one family, one future'.

The national and global climate change targets come as the country continues to witness the devastating effects of climate change. Extreme weather events were recorded across its landscape during 80% of the year in 2022 .

And the impact on its growing population is starting to show.

This is where climate adaptation becomes critical. While mitigation involves cutting the pace of global emissions and slowing down warming, adaptation is essential to save lives and livelihoods in the short to medium term. Adaptation also helps in building long-term resilience to the impacts of climate change.

As adaptation strategies and finance needs are scaled up, communities at the grassroots are already finding ways to cope with increasing climate shocks.

The lived experiences of people across the most climate-vulnerable regions in India, as documented in the Faces of Climate Resilience project, reflect a determination to respond with action.

From Kerala to Rajasthan, individuals and communities are making efforts to ward off the worst effects of global warming and adapt through solutions. "They are embracing nature-based solutions using their traditional wisdom," says Nitin Bassi, the Programme Lead at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

"Further, they are able to mobilise collective action and collaborate with civil society, non-profit organisations, and local governments to build climate resilience."

Here, we bring you five such stories from people adapting to the climate reality.

How this Kerala district is re-building life and climate-proofing infrastructure

In 2018, the southern Indian state of Kerala witnessed its worst flooding in a century. Millions of people were affected, and monsoon rains hampered rescue operations.

In its aftermath, officials and experts said the floods in Kerala - with 44 rivers flowing through it - would not have been so severe if authorities had gradually released water from at least 30 dams.

But it was too late for residents like 49-year-old Jayachandran, who built a modest home for his family of four while selling fish for a living. This home, in the hilly region of Cheruthoni in Kerala's Idukki district, was among the houses washed away when the government opened the floodgates of the Idukki dam — one of the highest arch dams in Asia.

"I stood there, watching the efforts of my toil crumble to the ground. That was a harrowing experience," recalls Jayachandran. He and his family had already vacated their house after receiving a prior warning from the authorities. They spent the following days in a relief camp.

Jayachandran eventually built a two-bedroom house with some relief from the government's financial assistance .

Opening the gates to the dam also caused widespread damage to the critical infrastructure of Cheruthoni town. The gushing water submerged the bridge connecting two ends of the town, and the arterial road partially caved in.

Residents and the administration quickly realised the need to climate-proof the town's critical infrastructure. A proposal to replace the 60-year-old bridge that was submerged was approved, and the construction is in progress.

Other measures from the administration included the construction of a solid concrete wall along the approached road and installing tetrapods to reduce the impact of gushing water.

With this case in mind, the project points towards the need to develop a climate-proof infrastructure index for India. Such an index can help identify and map strategies to protect the country's existing and planned infrastructure against climate risks .

How a farmer in Maharashtra is adapting to drought

Rajendra Khapre is a farmer in Maharashtra's Ahmednagar — one of the most drought-prone districts in India. The 45-year-old has a small land holding and has been practising agriculture in a region with low fertility soil, which requires more fertilizers and water.

Now, he also has to cope with erratic rains and longer, harsher summers — the impacts of climate change. "In 2005, 2007, 2013 and 2016, Maharashtra faced massive droughts. Forget agriculture; we didn't even have water to drink. Farmers abandoned their fields and migrated to cities for work," Rajendra says.

According to CEEW analysis , the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts have increased 4X in the Ahmednagar district since 1970.

However, Rajendra and several other farmers are finding ways to adapt to the challenges. They have taken to watershed management and efficient cropping techniques with the help of grassroots-level organisations.

"We benefited greatly from watershed programs that helped prevent run-off from the hills. Gradually, the groundwater recharged, replenishing water in wells and lakes," Rajendra says.

Water availability also helped him shift to other crops, such as onion, soybean, pomegranate and papaya, which fetched more money in the market.

Rajendra has also started burying diffusers connected to existing drip lines in his pomegranate garden to adapt to droughts. The diffusers help optimise water usage during dry spells by moistening the soil around the roots. "We must change our ways and shift to natural farming methods to adapt to impending climatic changes," he says.

Climate-smart agriculture practices can promote effective water resource management and revitalise drought-prone ecosystems, especially in rain-fed areas.

Watch the full video of how Rajendra is adapting to droughts below.

How a Rajasthan village's floodwater harvesting mitigates drought stress

Shiv Prakash, a 31-year-old farmer in Rajasthan's Jodhpur district, can easily describe how the climate around him has shifted since childhood. He observes a clear rise in temperatures in his Govindpura village and notes that the rainfall is insufficient to raise crops.

"Now we get rain only two to four times a year. But when it rains hard, the gushing water carries away all the topsoil and fertilisers and destroys the crops," sums up Shiv, who lives with his wife and two children.

According to CEEW analysis, the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts has increased three-fold in the Jodhpur district since 1970.

But, the people of Govindpura believed they could overcome their challenges through collective effort. Shiv Prakash's father and a group of villagers formed a Village Development Committee (VDC) and collaborated with a grassroots organisation — Gramin Vikas Vigyan Samiti (Gravis).

Together, they decided that the flow of water downstream from the hills must be checked and the water stored. They built several structures such as check dams, ponds and rainwater harvesting tanks.

The structures proved to be a game changer for farmers like Shiv Prakash. In addition to slowing the flow of water, they also aid in recharging groundwater substantially. "As a result, many farmers are now able to cultivate crops twice a year," a field coordinator of Gravis says.

Govindpura's example, where a challenge was turned into an opportunity successfully, shows that rainwater harvesting through traditional watershed infrastructure can prevent soil erosion and mitigate extreme droughts.

How flood-hit Odisha farmers are turning to traditional crops

Subrat Kumar, a middle-aged farmer from Gupti village in Odisha's Kendrapara district, had high hopes when he invested close to INR 0.15 million (about $1800) for paddy cultivation in 2021. He hoped that a good monsoon season would give his rain-fed paddy fields the irrigation required.

However, the following months did not go as planned for Kumar and scores of other farmers in the region — erratic monsoons followed the water-scarce summer months. Heavy rains left the farms inundated by the time of harvest in October, destroying crops.

A 2020 analysis published in Geophysical Research Letters highlighted such a dramatic dry-to-wet-weather swing. The researchers found that weather in some regions swings from drought to heavy rain under the weight of climate-induced changes - " like an undulating seesaw ".

As for Odisha, there has been a three-fold rise in extreme flood events in the state in the last two decades, according to CEEW analysis.

"A combination of unsustainable landscape planning, lack of climate-resilient infrastructure and human-induced microclimate change triggered this rise in storm surges, incessant rainfall, and floods across the eastern and western coastal belts in India," says Shreya Wadhawan, Research Analyst at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

To overcome the crisis, farmers in the region are returning to certain traditional agricultural practices.

Adjacent to his hybrid paddy crops, a farmer is planting a paddy variety called 'Pottiya', which his forefathers cultivated. The traditional variety was not damaged in the flooding. "The traditional crops can withstand floods for up to two months," says 62-year-old Ajay Kumar Sahu, adding that the hybrid varieties get destroyed in 15 days.

The hybrid varieties initially promised higher monetary returns, but their rising input cost and unpredictable monsoons have made them risky. Realising the same, the farmers have decided to cultivate more traditional varieties. Watch their full story below.

How Mumbai's Ambojwadi is responding to climate change

Barely five kilometres off the bustle of India's financial hub — the city of Mumbai — Kalpana wakes up to a deceptively green expanse. Unlike most other Mumbai residents, who open their windows to each other's balconies, she has the view all to herself — only because no one wants to share it.

The 31-year-old raises her three children by a vast wetland that floods every time it rains. Kalpana is among the 40,000 residents of Ambojwadi, an informal settlement in northwestern Mumbai that is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Living in a low-lying area, surrounded by wetlands, mangroves and the coastline, they are amongst the first to be affected by floods and cyclones. According to CEEW analysis, the Mumbai district has recorded a three-fold increase in extreme floods and a two-fold increase in extreme cyclones since 2010.

Kalpana and her neighbours want to be prepared as a disaster is imminent. They have been surveying the climate-vulnerable areas in their settlement and building a first-response team with the help of a Mumbai-based community organisation, YUVA.

The first-response team, formed with the participation of community leaders, women and youngsters, has been working closely with the civic government departments to deal with emergencies in the event of heavy rainfall or cyclone. They were even called in to support a rescue mission in the adjacent settlement, Malwani.

Amit, YUVA's field coordinator in Ambojwadi, says the settlement has become more vulnerable after a large stretch of protective mangrove forest was destroyed for infrastructure projects. To raise awareness about the importance of mangrove conservation, YUVA has been engaging youngsters in the settlement through murals, street plays and film shows.

"We're collectively trying to be better prepared as a community so that we can fight climate change in our own capacity," he says.

The Faces of Climate Resilience project by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water is in partnership with India Climate Collaborative, Edelgive Foundation and Drokpa Films. More information here .

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Perspective article, unprecedented climate change in india and a three-pronged method for reliable weather and climate prediction.

• 1 National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil
• 2 Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India
• 3 Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India

India, one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, has suffered severe economic losses as well as life losses as per the World Focus report. 1 More than 80% of its land and more than 50 million of its people are affected by weather disasters. Disaster mitigation necessitates reliable future predictions, which need focused climate change research. From the climate change perspective, the summer monsoon, the main lifeline of India, is predicted to change very adversely. The duration of the rainy season is going to shrink, and pre-monsoon drying can also occur. These future changes can impact the increase of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue, and others. In another recent study, 29 world experts from various institutions found that the largest exposure to disasters, such as tropical cyclones (TCs), river floods, droughts, and heat waves, is over India. For improved and skillful prediction, we suggest a three-stage cumulative method, namely, K is for observational analysis, U is for knowledge and understanding, and M is for modeling and prediction. In this brief note, we report our perspective of imminent weather disasters to India, namely, monsoons and TCs, and how the weather and climate forecasting can be improved, leading to better climate change adaptation.

Introduction

The Indian economy still significantly depends on agriculture, which, in turn, depends on the summer monsoon rains occurring from June to September. In the present scenario of climate change, it is essential to know how the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is going to change in the future. In a recent detailed study with regional climate model projections, Ashfaq et al. (2020) suggest that an important adverse signal of future climate change over the Indian monsoon region in the RCP8.5 scenario ( Krishnan et al., 2020 ; Jyoteeshkumar Reddy et al., 2021 ) can occur. The sinking of the Indian monsoon rainy season onset is projected to delay by five to eight pentads and a shrinking of the monsoon rainy season. India can experience pre-monsoon drying as well.

In a recent innovative study, 29 world experts ( Lange et al., 2020 ) from different institutions and different countries, reached some important conclusions. These inferences deserve urgent attention and action plans by policymakers. They considered six categories of extreme climate impact events, namely, river floods, cyclones, crop failures, wildfires, heat waves, and droughts. These authors ( Lange et al., 2020 ) quantified the pure effect of climate change on the exposure of the global population to the events mentioned. One important conclusion, which is of grave concern to India, is that the largest increase in exposure is projected here. Thus, to avoid huge damages due to these disasters, such as deaths and loss of property, urgent and more reliable predictions are needed. We, however, must clarify that there has been tremendous improvement in numerical prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the last few decades in India [e.g., Pattanaik and Mohapatra, 2021 ; Saranya Ganesh et al., 2021 ; Sarkar et al., 2021 , and all other papers in January 2021 of Mausam, a special issue on the state of the art on TC prediction in the North Indian Ocean (NIO)], but what we claim is that applying theory can enhance the skills from the current day model outputs substantially more as discussed in the following section. To provide an analogy, in a recent study, Rao et al. (2021) attempted to connect observations, theory, and a prediction plan for heat waves. This prediction method can be applied to a numerical weather prediction model to predict deadly heat waves; thus, Rao et al. (2021) used a K, U, and M approach for the prediction of deadly heat waves over India.

From the context of the three-pronged K, U, and M method (hereafter, KUM), there are sufficient observational studies, or K, and also some attempts have been made using highly sophisticated, state-of-the-art (atmosphere and ocean) coupled models for predictions, M. What is most lacking, however, are theoretical studies (U) aiming to find out the causes for disastrous TCs or the highly complex regional monsoons.

According to a recent 2021 overview of current research results by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of Global Warming and Hurricanes 2 , the severity and frequency of TCs are increasing globally. A recent study ( Balaguru et al., 2015 ) also suggests an increase of TCs globally even over the NIO. Essentially, the increase in the strong TCs has far-reaching implications for society because these include the most harmful aspects, namely, storm surges and heavy rains with intense wind speeds. Indeed, TC rainfall rates will possibly increase in the future due to various anthropogenic effects and accompanying increases in atmospheric moisture. Rapid intensification of TCs poses forecast challenges and increased risks for coastal communities ( Emanuel, 2017 ). Recent modeling studies ( Emanuel, 2020 ) show an increase of 10–15% for precipitation rates averaged within about 100 km of the cyclone for a 2°C global warming scenario. As per IPCC AR5, higher levels of coastal flooding due to TCs are expected to occur, all else assumed to be constant due to rising sea levels. In this situation, together with the rise in sea level, the impact due to the strong TCs deteriorates the conditions of the increasing coastal population across India and the neighborhood. As the NIO is one of the typical regions with a population of 1.353 billion (2018), about 18% of the global population by 2020, it is highly susceptible to strong TCs causing adverse living conditions, and the implication is that stronger TCs will be worse.

According to reports from a respected BBC newspaper 3 , 4 , and a potential report 5 from the Indian Meteorological Department, Amphan is a very severe cyclone that transited the west coast of India in 2020 and also caused a lot of damage. The super cyclonic storm Amphan is the costliest case in the recorded history of TCs with damage of US$15.78 billion and also total fatalities of 269. Similarly, in the year 2019, a loss of US$11 billion occurred due to TCs. In the year 2020, there was a record-breaking occurrence of eight TCs over the NIO: five cyclones and three major cyclones compared to the climatology of 4.9, 1.5, and 0.7. We note a drastic increase in category 3 and beyond hurricanes occurring in the NIO and also a significant increase in the Northern and Southern hemispheres ( Figure 1 ). Also, there is a substantial increase in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the last two decades in the NIO and Northern and Southern hemispheres ( Figure 2 ). In 2019, record-breaking ACE of 85 × 10 4 knots 2 , occurred in the NIO, nearly twice the previous record ( Singh et al., 2021 ; Wang et al., 2021 , BAMS). The decrease in the projected number of TCs found in some studies ( Sugi et al., 2017 ) is overcompensated by the huge increase in intensity similar to that found over the NIO in 2019 and 2020. Furthermore, as if to worsen the situation in a colloquial sense, Wang and Murakami (2020) show that the general atmospheric and ocean parameters, which show a high global correlation with the number of TCs, nevertheless show only a very low correlation with TCs of the NIO. Thus, urgent research should be carried out to understand the causes of the occurrence of TCs over the NIO. Even globally, in the last 39 years (1980–2018), weather disasters caused about 23,000 fatalities and US$100 billion in damages worldwide. Each year, weather events displace huge populations, drive people into poverty, and dampen economic growth globally ( Kousky, 2014 ; Munich, 2020 ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., in press ). The underlying causes show a marked signal of anthropogenic roots and global warming (e.g., Sobel et al., 2016 ; Im et al., 2017 ).

Figure 1 . The number of category 3+ hurricanes that occurred in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and the NIO (black dotted line indicates a linear trend, and orange line indicates significance at the 95% confidence level) ( http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?archandloc=northindian ).

Figure 2 . ACE (in 10 4 Knots 2 ) in the Northern and Southern hemispheres and the NIO (black dotted line indicates a linear trend, and orange line indicates significance at 95% confidence level) ( http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?archandloc=northindian ).

Henceforth, we focus on the TCs as well as summer monsoons, which are the two most relevant weather and climate phenomena for the Indian region.

A Three-Stage Method to Study and Plan Reliable Prediction

Because India is rigorously prone to natural disasters as well as impacts due to anticipated changes in the summer monsoon in the future, there is indeed a serious question as to how to study the causal mechanisms of these disasters and plan to mitigate them. In this context, the late Gill (1985) , an accomplished geosciences expert, suggested almost 35 years ago the KUM method, namely, knowledge, understanding, and modeling, a three-pronged approach. The first step (K) is to improve observational knowledge of calamity-causing weather events and next a theoretical understanding to find out the cause of a specific effect, probably utilizing linear analytical mathematical solutions (U). Finally, the third one (M), using the presently available highly complex coupled (atmosphere and ocean) models giving numerical solutions to non-linear equations, pioneered by Phillips (1956) , predicting future occurrences. The order of KUM seems to be important. Although relatively substantial observational results are available in the Indian context for meteorological and oceanographic events, very few theoretical studies have been made delineating the causal mechanisms. Thus, this aspect should be given priority. In a recent comment, Emanuel (2020) also stressed the need for theoretical studies. Finally, only after acquiring the observational, knowledge, and cause-and-effect relationships in theoretical studies, only then , should one embark on numerical or climate modeling to successfully predict the future.

In this context, it is illuminating to recall the comments of Phillips (1970) , one of the founding fathers of theoretical meteorology and numerical weather prediction: “in making a numerical forecast, one takes a set of numbers.regardless of.synoptic structures.by another set of numbers, representing the forecast. The computation of a set of numbers depicting the formation of a front, is of course, not a theory of fronts (unless one is content to point to the equation of motion as theory!!!!!)” Thus, one should be very careful using numerical models to develop a theory of TCs, and in the Indian context, monsoon depressions (MDs) are crucial for monsoon rainfall. Today, many students and scientists worldwide spend most of their valuable time dealing with huge data sets and running numerical models to simulate rather than to develop a theory. Tellingly, Emanuel (2020) , mentions that presently there is “computing too much and thinking too little.” Indeed, there is an urgent need for curiosity-driven theoretical research even in the Indian context. One interesting example to stress the importance of theory is, today, that the best numerical weather prediction is in mid and high latitudes in winter. This is because the basic theory behind the mechanism of winter weather changes, the baroclinic instability, was discovered more than 70 years ago by Charney (1947) , and models and observations evolved accordingly. Thus, it is important to realize, without the correct understanding of the causal mechanisms through theory, one will never be able to predict correctly and completely the required weather or climate or its changes with just the brute force of computers available today!!!

TCs Over the NIO

Regarding the theory of the generation mechanisms of TCs, there are two well-known hypotheses, namely, (a) the conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and (b) wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE) (please refer to Tomassini, 2020 for a comprehensive discussion of these two processes). A detailed discussion of these two is beyond the scope of the present short article. However, the authors quickly discuss these two mechanisms in the context of TCs over NIO.

In the case of TCs, the pre-synoptic disturbances get their energy by the complex interaction of two different horizontal scales, namely, cumulus convection of about 1 km and synoptic systems of about 500 km. How this interaction happens is a topic of debate, though, and most of the research in the published literature is about TCs in tropical ocean basins other than the NIO region.

Briefly, we discuss the basic characteristics of CISK and quasi-equilibrium (or WISHE). In the process of CISK, the buoyant convection can occur only when low-level stability is weakened (see Figure 2 ; Ooyama, 1969 ), and in the other, moist convection is governed by the vertically integrated measure of instability. As noted by Tomassini (2020) , meteorological conditions vary greatly from one region to the other in the tropics and also in the same region from one season to another (see Ashok et al., 2000 ; Rao et al., 2000 ; Raymond et al., 2015 ). Raymond mentions two tropical places, Sahel and the Western Pacific, where conditions are very different. Now, how do the conditions vary, during (i) pre-monsoon, (ii) MDs, and (iii) post-monsoon TCs? Similar to Bony et al. (2017) , we suggest that more detailed observations of both satellite measurements and data developed in field programs should be used to understand the convection and circulation coupling of TCs over NIO. For example, the INCOMPASS IOP field program, which collects data from strategically installed ground-based instruments in India, is one such program ( Fletcher et al., 2018 ).

Another, synoptic disturbance of importance is a MD. Despite several observational and theoretical studies by many authors (for example, Sikka, 1977 ; Mishra and Salvekar, 1979 ; Aravequia et al., 1995 ; Boos et al., 2017 ) trying to understand the basic mechanism of origin, some fundamental questions remain unanswered. Similar to TCs, the lack of understanding of how convection and MD circulation couple hinders the prediction. For both TCs and MDs, we suggest analyzing time vertical sections of potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature, and saturated equivalent potential temperature such that one can get an idea of the relative importance of CISK or the quasi-equilibrium hypothesis discussed briefly above.

Another method for elucidating the study is to examine the system's energetics, i.e., TCs or MDs. Lorenz (1960) mentions, “one enlightening method of studying the behaviour of the atmosphere, or a portion of it, consists of examining the behaviour of the energy involved.” Earlier Mishra and Rao (2001) used limited area energetics to infer the mechanism of generation of Northeast Brazil's upper tropospheric vortices. Also, Rao and Rajamani (1972) examined the energetics of MDs. These methods of energy analysis, for example, can be used to isolate or single out the basic mechanism of generation of TCs or MDs, using more recent well-covered data, such as the INCOMPASS IOP program ( Turner et al., 2019 ). Later, targeted numerical model studies should be used to not only verify the process/processes identified in energetic and diagnostic studies, but to design dynamics-based indices related to TC formation that are relatively easier to predict. For example, a CISK parameter may be easier to predict with a longer lead as compared with the TC rainfall. These methods are again akin to the KUM approach. Such carefully verified and designed indices, when operationalized, will substantially help in extending the lead prediction time. Probabilistic dynamical-statistical downscaling tools can also be developed to relate local rainfall with these indices. This will also potentially enhance the lead time of the TC-related deluge. Similarly, a better understanding of model ability in capturing the conversions between different forms of energy.

Again, several aspects of monsoons, particularly, the Indian Monsoon are still not completely clear and hinder the mechanisms of prediction. In a recent exhaustive study, Geen et al. (2020) , discussed several aspects, primarily from a theoretical standpoint even though this study was developed based on the concept of a global monsoon, Figure 2 of Geen et al. (2020) shows only a very low correlation in interannual variations of rainfall, the main meteorological element that must be predicted. However, the different regions of monsoons with different geographical boundaries raise serious objections about the global monsoon concept.

Several studies exist in the literature regarding the observed aspects of the Indian summer monsoon (the K part of the three-pronged method), and modern numerical models are employed to improve prediction skills ( Sahai et al., 2016 ; Rao et al., 2019 ; Mohanty et al., 2020 ). From an almost zero skill, we have reached a stage at which the skills for predicting the area-averaged Indian summer monsoon are found to be statistically significant. This is great progress. Having said that, there is a great scope for further improvement. Although the broad regionally averaged skills are statistically significant, they are modest. Further, improving the skills such that they are locally useful is the obvious goal but still a long way ahead. Although the prediction skill improved through better methods of, for example, data assimilation and parametrization schemes, to improve the predictions further, we need to diagnose the improved representation (e.g., Halder et al., 2016 ; Saha et al., 2019 ; Hazra et al., 2020 ), better replication of physical processes and scale interactions.

Notwithstanding all these technical improvements, the large-scale physical causal mechanisms are not clear yet. This can only be done with the studies aiming to understand the cause-and-effect relation or the U in the three-pronged method. As mentioned earlier, with more observational studies aiming to identify the correct interaction mechanism over NIO between convection and large-scale monsoon circulation (either CISK or WHISE), then this mechanism can be included in the numerical models. Also, controlled experiments using simple models, such as the one by Rao et al. (2000) , can be used to identify relative roles of mountains and thermal contrast in generating the Indian summer monsoon. In the state-of-the-art coupled models, because of extremely complex non-linear interactions among various physical mechanisms, it is almost impossible to isolate the cause of a specific effect.

Again, the diagnostic study based on energetics, such as the generation of available potential energy (PE) by latent heat and the baroclinic conversions, for example, may reveal relative roles of some physical processes, such as convection in the Indian monsoon. In a recent companion study (Rao et al., under review), comparing the South American and Indian monsoons, we found that, in the Indian monsoon, the baroclinic conversions P ¯ (mean available PE) to P ′ (eddy PE) to kinetic energy (KE) is non-existent, and the KE of monsoon is mainly furnished by the generation of perturbation PE by latent heating (rainfall) and subsequent conversion to KE. In contrast, over the South American monsoon, both the baroclinic conversions and generation terms are equally important. This is probably because the Himalayas extend from East to West across the cardinal northern border of the country, which does not allow mid-latitude baroclinic waves to penetrate at lower levels while the Andes mountains in South America extend along North to South, permit these waves to penetrate even as low latitude as Manaus, where even austral summer cold waves (FRAIAGENS) are noted. Furthermore, studies are necessary to verify how energetics vary between wet and dry monsoons in these two regions.

In a review article by Geen et al. (2020) , the authors discuss attempts to understand fundamental dynamics (U in our three-pronged method). Geen et al. (2020) mention a very similar KUM approach for monsoons (their section 3). Such efforts are urgently needed from the context of the Indian monsoon. They even discuss the south Asian monsoon (their section 3.1.2). Although they tried to reconcile between global and regional monsoon features, the differences are more striking as we mentioned earlier, regarding the Indian and South American monsoons. In the case of the East Asian monsoon, at least one author ( Molnar et al., 2010 ) mentions, “‘monsoon' is somewhat of a misnomer.”

Although there are some uncertainties in the methods used by Lange et al. (2020) , the importance of their conclusion is unambiguous. They mention that “anthropogenic” climate change has already substantially increased the exposure to extreme global climatic impacts, and anthropogenic warming is projected to exacerbate the pattern of climate change that we are already noticing nowadays. Thus, it is urgent to restrain the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C, which would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change 6 ( Benitez, 2009 ; Dash et al., 2013 ). All this, therefore, underscores the urgency for climate action expressed in the Paris agreement of 2015. Even in a climate change context, using the KUM approach will help in a better diagnosis of the changes in regional implications for large-scale instabilities to diabatic processes. These can help in design model-based indices that can inform the stakeholders working on climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Recommendations

We are in an era in which observational data availability in the tropics has improved significantly and is going to be further improved. In this context, it is recommended that the forecasters and researchers of Indian weather and climate use this excellent opportunity to build theoretical knowledge unique to the regional weather and climate. The knowledge gained should be translated to identify tangible, large-scale dynamical process indices. Such indices will be very useful to extend the lead prediction skills of important weather and climate phenomenon, such as TCs, MDs, etc. Similarly, (i) evaluating the model capacity in predicting and calibration of association between hindcast perturbation PE, latent heating, and subsequent conversion to KE, and (ii) comparing the observations will potentially provide us with indices that can be directly used to predict subseasonal monsoonal rainfall with longer leads. The above recommendations are just examples. In summary, identifying the key dynamics behind important weather and climate processes at discernible time scales and designing useful dynamical indices that can be used to extend the lead forecast envelope will be the way forward.

Data Availability Statement

The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found below: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu .

Author Contributions

VB conceived the idea. VB wrote the manuscript with inputs from KA and using the results from DG analysis. KA comprehensively revised the article. All authors contributed to the article and approved the submitted version.

The publication charge of this article is fully funded by the Frontiers in Climate Journal.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Publisher's Note

All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Prof. Matthew Collins, Specialty Chief Editor, Frontiers in Climate Journal, and reviewers for their helpful feedback and recommendations in improving the manuscript quality. The authors are grateful to the Frontiers in Climate Journal Committee for waiving the article's publishing fees. We thank the reviewers for their critical comments, which helped to improve the quality of the article.

1. ^ World focus-special issue July 2014, editorial (peer-reviewed, refereed research journal).

2. ^ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

3. ^ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52749935

4. ^ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season

5. ^ https://mausam.imd.gov.in/Forecast/marquee_data/indian111.pdf

6. ^ https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement

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Keywords: KUM method, extreme weather, human suffering, tropical cyclone, monsoon, Indian summer monsoon (ISM)

Citation: Brahmananda Rao V, Ashok K and Govardhan D (2021) Unprecedented Climate Change in India and a Three-Pronged Method for Reliable Weather and Climate Prediction. Front. Clim. 3:716507. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2021.716507

Received: 28 May 2021; Accepted: 04 October 2021; Published: 15 November 2021.

Reviewed by:

Copyright © 2021 Brahmananda Rao, Ashok and Govardhan. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

*Correspondence: Vadlamudi Brahmananda Rao, raovadlamud@gmail.com orcid.org/0000-0001-5905-9806

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• 29 May 2024

Chance of heatwaves in India rising with climate change

• Jude Coleman

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Two nurses care for a patient with heat stroke in a hospital ward in Chennai, India. Credit: R. Satish Babu/AFP via Getty

India is sweating through a heatwave, with thermometers in some parts of the capital recording more than 52 °C. This is the third year in a row of lethally high temperatures in April and May for the country, and climate change is increasing the likelihood of such weather extremes.

Although heat in spring is normal in India, says Krishna AchutaRao, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, the duration and expanse of the heatwaves in 2022 , 2023 and 2024 are uncommon. “Three years in a row is unusual but consistent with what we expect from climate change,” he says. The heatwaves have started earlier and are affecting a larger part of the country than in previous years. The past three years’ temperatures are also hotter than the historical trends.

Human-caused climate change underlies that variation. “Every heatwave in the world is now made hotter and more likely due to climate change,” says Mariam Zachariah, a climatologist at Imperial College London. An analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative published this month found that climate change made the current extreme temperatures in India 45 times more likely than without climate change. In any given year, India now has a 10% chance of being hit by an extreme heatwave in late spring. Intense heatwaves will probably be more frequent than in the past, although expecting them every year might be a stretch, says Zachariah, who worked on the WWA’s analysis. But she adds that the odds of extreme heatwaves occurring in a given year could reach around 50% if current warming trends continue.

Turning up the heat

In addition to heatwaves being hotter and more frequent, they are also projected to last longer. “There is strong evidence from our research that the heatwaves are going to start earlier in the year and extend later into the season,” says AchutaRao. The 2022 heatwave, for example, began in March, which was unusually early. Heatwaves running longer is also worrisome, as they run the risk of overlapping with the monsoon season . The rains usually offer a reprieve from the heat but if heatwaves persist and overlap with rain, the combination of heat and humidity can be particularly deadly . People who work outside are especially vulnerable in these conditions.

According to the India Meteorological Department unusually high temperatures are forecast to continue into June. Many of the country’s local governments have heat action plans in place, but these focus mainly on human health, AchutaRao says. If global temperatures continue to increase, so will the range and length of heatwaves. That means other affected sectors, such as agriculture, will need to have adaptation plans, too.

The trend is another reason to continue to fight global warming. “We cannot keep postponing our efforts to mitigate climate change,” Zachariah says.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-01577-5

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Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in India: Future Research Directions

Kathleen f. bush.

1 Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

George Luber

2 National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

S. Rani Kotha

3 University of Michigan Center for Global Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

R.S. Dhaliwal

4 Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India

Vikas Kapil

Mercedes pascual.

5 Department of Evolutionary and Ecological Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

6 Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, Maryland, USA

Daniel G. Brown

7 School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Howard Frumkin

8 University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, Washington, USA

R.C. Dhiman

9 National Institute of Malaria Research, New Delhi, India

Jeremy Hess

Mark l. wilson.

10 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Kalpana Balakrishnan

11 Department of Environmental Health and Engineering, Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, India

Joseph Eisenberg

Tanvir kaur, richard rood.

12 Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Stuart Batterman

Aley joseph, carina j. gronlund, arun agrawal.

Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions.

Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified priorities and strategies for future research in India.

The scope of the problem in India is enormous, based on the potential for climate change and variability to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya, as well as chronic diseases, particularly among the millions of people who already experience poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water. Ongoing efforts to study these risks were discussed but remain scant. A universal theme of the recommendations developed was the importance of improving the surveillance, monitoring, and integration of meteorological, environmental, geospatial, and health data while working in parallel to implement adaptation strategies.

Conclusions

It will be critical for India to invest in improvements in information infrastructure that are innovative and that promote interdisciplinary collaborations while embarking on adaptation strategies. This will require unprecedented levels of collaboration across diverse institutions in India and abroad. The data can be used in research on the likely impacts of climate change on health that reflect India’s diverse climates and populations. Local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior must also be enhanced.

Climate Change and Human Health

Although low- and middle-income countries are responsible for only a small percentage of global greenhouse gas emissions, the adverse health effects associated with climate change will likely fall disproportionately on their populations. This inequity will further exacerbate global health disparities ( McMichael et al. 2003 ; Patz and Olson 2006 ; Patz et al. 2007 ; Wiley and Gostin 2009 ). High-risk areas include those already experiencing a scarcity of resources, environmental degradation, high rates of infectious disease, weak infrastructure, and overpopulation ( Patz et al. 2005 ; Wiley and Gostin 2009 ). In particular, tropical regions will experience significant changes in human–pathogen relationships because of climate change ( Sattenspiel 2000 ). Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns linked to climate change will further affect health by changing the ecology of various vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue, chikungunya, Japanese encephalitis, kala-azar, and filariasis ( Bhattacharya et al. 2006 ; Dhiman et al. 2008 ). Vulnerable populations include the elderly, children, urban populations, and the poor ( Ebi and Paulson 2010 ; O’Neill and Ebi 2009 ).

The goals of this report are to briefly summarize relevant literature and highlight the enormous challenges and opportunities for innovative research, with a particular focus on India. Such research is needed to pave the way for unique and pioneering solutions that can improve public health in the face of increasing climate variability. Therefore, we review the current state of the science relevant to the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health that was held in Goa, India, and then discuss the observed relationships between climate variability and human health, specifically in relation to the Indian subcontinent, highlighting future research directions.

Potential health impacts discussed at the Goa workshop fell into three categories: heat stress and air pollution, waterborne disease, and vector-borne disease focusing on malaria. Additional crosscutting sessions covered climate modeling and predictions for India, adaptation and vulnerability, surveillance and early warning systems, integration of spatial analysis, and bridging policy and science. We acknowledge that the potential physical and social impacts of climate change in India will likely be diverse, and that many additional important factors were not covered in our workshop, such as food yields, malnutrition, child growth, river flow, monsoon rain patterns, and freshwater availability. Nevertheless, we believe the Goa workshop served to target many of the major public health concerns associated with climate change and began the process of conceptualizing research needs and approaches that are integrative and achievable in low- and middle-income countries.

Impacts in India

The 2009 joint indo-u.s. workshop on climate change and health.

The workshop was held in Goa, India, on 30 August through 2 September 2009; it was cosponsored by the University of Michigan’s Center for Global Health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Environmental Health, and the Indian Council of Medical Research. Scientists from the cosponsoring institutions, along with other partners from academia, government, and nongovernmental organizations, met under the auspices of the existing Indo-U.S. Collaboration in Environmental and Occupational Health to discuss the current state of the science, identify gaps in understanding, and outline future research directions related to the human health effects of climate change in India. The focus was prediction and prevention in India, and discussions touched on the tremendous opportunities and significant challenges associated with designing, initiating, and conducting research, as well as pursuing related public health programming to improve public health infrastructure in the face of climate change.

The scope of the problem and current research

Poverty and baseline vulnerability.

Many of the predicted effects of climate change are likely to become a reality in India. India is very diverse, geographically, climatically, and culturally ( Figure 1A ). It represents one-sixth of the world’s population, supported on 1/50 of the world’s land and 1/25 of the world’s water ( Singh et al. 2010 ). With its huge and increasing population (~ 1.2 billion) and rate of urbanization, India is undergoing enormous change; climate change poses an overwhelming stressor that will magnify existing health threats. A greater understanding of the relationship between climate variability and human health in a country such as India could aid in the development of new prevention strategies and early warning systems, with implications throughout the developing world. Future studies must work to more explicitly define the relationship between climate variability and emerging and reemerging infectious diseases such as dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and the chikungunya virus ( Shope 1991 ), as well as chronic diseases related to cardiovascular and respiratory illness, asthma, and diabetes. Millions of people below the poverty line and those in rural areas represent high-risk populations who are exposed to myriad health risks, including poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a constant shortage of clean drinking water. However, as awareness and public health infrastructure increase, the burden of climate-related disease may be negated ( Dhiman et al. 2010 ).

Interactions between climate and health in India. ( A ) Climate zones in India based on the Köppen classification that demonstrates the diversity of climates that exist in India [adapted from WikiProject India Maps and licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ )]. ( B ) State-specific estimates of cases of diarrheal disease across India in 2006 (adapted from Mandal 2008 ). ( C and D ) Regional estimates of malaria prevalence across India in 2002 ( C ) and regions in India where the prevalence of malaria is predicted to increase because of changes in climate ( D ) (adapted from Bhattacharya et al. 2006 ).

Waterborne infectious disease

The burden of waterborne disease in India is enormous ( Figure 1B ). However, estimates vary widely because of a lack of reporting, poor surveillance, and minimal data infrastructure. A report from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare estimates that nearly 40 million people are affected by waterborne disease every year that places a large burden on both the health sector and the economic sector. As a consequence, approximately 73 million workdays or US$600 million are lost each year ( Mandal 2008 ). Although the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 900,000 Indians die each year from drinking contaminated water and breathing polluted air ( WHO and UNICEF 2000 ), the Indian Ministry of Health estimates 1.5 million deaths annually among 0- to 5-year-old children. Cholera provides another example, with approximately 5 million cases reported by WHO each year; however, this estimate is thought to be a gross underestimation of the true burden of cholera because of a lack of surveillance and underreporting on the Indian subcontinent ( Zuckerman et al. 2007 ). Approximately 73% of the rural population in India does not have proper water disinfection, and 74% do not have sanitary toilets ( International Institute for Population Sciences and Macro International 2007 ). Freshwater availability in India is also a concern; available water is expected to decrease from 1,820 m 3 per capita to < 1,000 m 3 by 2025 in response to the combined effects of population growth and climate change ( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 ).

Research in this area must be both temporally and spatially specific. Furthermore, it requires local monitoring of the appropriate climate and disease variables ( Patz et al. 2002 ) because underreporting impedes the development of effective prevention strategies. It is critical to build a data infrastructure and conduct such research in India so that region-specific models based on climate and health can be developed. A systems approach focusing on health outcomes is critical to the success of future research in this area ( Batterman et al. 2009 ). As prediction models evolve, region-specific action plans and adaptation strategies can be developed.

Heat stress and air pollution

The summer of 2010 was the hottest summer on record in India, with temperatures approaching 50°C (122°F); the effects were far-reaching, including hospitalization because of heatstroke, suffering of livestock, and severe drought in some regions that affected health as well as agriculture ( Burke 2010 ). Research linking temperature and health effects in India is sparse. However, in a study of 12 international urban areas that included Delhi, McMichael et al. (2008) found a 3.94% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.80–5.08%] increase in mortality for each 1°C increase above 29°C. Hajat et al. (2005) reported that individuals in the 0- to 14-year-old age group had greater vulnerability to temperature increases in Delhi than did those in the 15- to 64-year-old age group or in the ≥ 65-year-old age group. These findings are in direct contrast with results from cities in Europe and the United States that consistently identify the elderly as the more vulnerable age group. Hajat et al. (2005) also found that harvesting (whereby increases in mortality on one day are followed by substantial decreases in mortality in subsequent days) accounted for almost all temperature-related mortality in London, whereas in Delhi, the increase in mortality due to high temperatures was not followed by an immediate drop in mortality. This suggests that in Delhi, individuals who died on days with higher temperatures were not already near death.

Limited work has been conducted on the combined effects of weather, climate variability, and increased air pollution in India ( Agarwal et al. 2006 ; Karar et al. 2006 ). One study that investigated the effects of air pollution on respiratory disease found that emergency department visits increased by approximately 20% because of high levels of pollutants in Delhi ( Pande et al. 2002 ). In a second study based in Chennai, India, Ghosh et al. (2010) concluded that short-term exposure to particulate matter ≤ 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM 10 ) resulted in an estimated risk ratio of 1.0044 (95% CI, 1.002–1.007) per a 10 μg/m 3 increase in daily average concentrations; this risk estimate is comparable to similar estimates from other countries. An important contribution of this study, relevant to other low- and middle-income countries, was the development of new methods to address specific limitations of routinely collected data such as missing measurements and small footprints of air pollution monitors, but the link to temperature remains to be explored. Some work has been done on seasonal air quality monitoring ( Pulikesi et al. 2006 ); however, the relationship of temperature, ozone, and health requires further investigation ( Doherty et al. 2009 ). Indoor air pollution presents yet another major health threat, with 32% of deaths in South Asia attributable to the burning of solid fuels in poor, small, unventilated houses ( Smith 2000 ; WHO 2004 ). Whether these health risks will be exacerbated as a result of climate change is yet to be determined, but cobenefit interventions aimed at reducing the health impacts associated with indoor air pollution, decreasing the release of green house gases from the burning of solid fuel, and preventing deforestation by introducing alternative, more efficient stoves and fuels will have serious implications for health and society.

Vector-borne disease

India has approximately 2 million confirmed cases of malaria per year ( Kumar et al. 2007 ). Like most infectious diseases, prevalence varies by region ( Figure 1C,D ). Although WHO concludes that approximately 15,000 individuals die from malaria each year in India ( WHO 2008 ), a recent study by Dhingra et al. (2010) estimates approximately 200,000 malaria deaths per year in India before 70 years of age and 55,000 in early childhood. As Dhingra et al. (2010) suggest, accurate estimation of malaria mortality in India is difficult because correctly diagnosed episodes are successfully treated and do not result in death; in fatal cases without medical intervention, malaria is easily mistaken for some other life-threatening fever; and in most rural areas where death from malaria is common, proper medical attention at the time of death is uncommon. These challenges, which hold true in many developing countries, make it difficult to use hospital-based data to assess the association between climate variability and malaria, because disease burden may be vastly underestimated.

In India, 65% of malaria cases are reported from six regions (Orissa, Jharkhand, Madya Pradesh, Chattsgarh, West Bengal, and the North East). In Orissa, the disease has much more serious proportions than even in sub-Saharan Africa ( Narain 2008 ). A 2001 WHO report estimated the disability-adjusted life years lost because of all vector-borne diseases in the country to be 4.2 million, and malaria is believed to account for nearly half of this ( Dash et al. 2008 ). The emergence and rapid spread of drug-resistant strains of malaria further compound the problem. Chloroquine used to be the drug of choice for all kinds of malaria and was highly prescribed in India until 1973, when resistance was detected in Plasmodium falciparum . Chloroquine is no longer as effective, with increasing reports of Plasmodium vivax developing resistance ( Dash et al. 2008 ). In addition, the use of chloroquine, which selects against P. vivax , has allowed P. falciparum to become the dominant parasite ( Singh et al. 2004 ), a pattern with important epidemiological consequences, because it is the most virulent form of malaria in the region.

In arid and semiarid regions of India, where malaria is epidemic, rainfall variability has been shown to drive the interannual variability of the disease ( Akhtar and McMichael 1996 ; Bouma and van der Kaay 1994 ; Laneri et al. 2010 ) and was the basis of one of the first early-warning systems for the disease in this region. Evidence suggests that rainfall variability plays an important role and that a long-term trend in increasing temperature during the 20th century is sufficient to significantly increase the abundance of vectors ( Pascual et al. 2009 ). Monthly parasite incidence was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation, and humidity ( Devi and Jauhari 2006 ). The implications of this association as it relates to long-term climate change remain an important open question. For other regions of India, monsoonal rains have shown an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme rain events, whereas the frequency of moderate events has been decreasing, with no significant change in the mean in the last 50 years ( Goswami et al. 2006 ). Temperature plays a major role, especially at high altitudes, preventing epidemic malaria from spreading into the highest altitude regions. The consequences of climate change in highland regions is an important open question based on future temperature predictions in these regions (Beig G, unpublished data). Little is known about the influence of climate variability or climate change on the prevalence of malaria in Indian urban areas ( Kumar et al. 2007 ). The issue of urban malaria becomes even more important when considering the rapid expansion of urban and periurban environments, water storage techniques, and rising poverty levels.

The need for adaptation

Although adaptation to climate impacts has attracted substantial attention recently, the effectiveness of specific strategies in relation to greater resilience of public health systems remains underinvestigated. Adapting to climate change will be necessary and will occur at physiological, behavioral, social, institutional, and organizational scales. To take advantage of already ongoing adaptations for creating more effective public health responses to climate change impacts—especially for poor rural communities whose access to health care is extremely limited even in the current policy environment—developing a baseline understanding of the region-specific demographic, social, and ecological determinants of health will be necessary. In designing public health responses, factors that must be considered include the population’s age structure, socioeconomic profile, baseline prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases, public awareness of risk, the built environment, existing infrastructure, available public health services, and autonomous responses to climate impacts on health that households and communities might undertake by themselves ( McMichael 2004 ). Furthermore, adaptation strategies in response to climate variability and change must be designed on specific temporal and spatial scales relevant to India. Taking steps now to adjust to current climate variability and modifying existing programs to address the anticipated impacts of climate change will make future adaptation strategies more effective ( Ebi et al. 2006 ). The same changes may also aid in reaching additional environmental and social objectives, such as more equitable education, empowerment of women, and improved sanitation. These community-based initiatives should be complemented by government interventions. A variety of stakeholders, including those who will be affected most by climate change impacts, must be involved in the problem-solving process to enhance human and technical capacity across sectors at both local and national levels ( Agrawal 2009 ; Ebi and Semenza 2008 ). Failure to invest now will likely increase the severity of consequences in the future ( Haines et al. 2006 ).

Potential adaptation strategies in India could focus on controlling infectious diseases by removing vector breeding sites, reducing vector–human contact via improved housing, and coordinating monitoring of mosquitoes, pathogens, and disease burden. Another potential focus area for adaptation could be improving sanitation and drinking water by supporting inexpensive and effective water treatment and increasing rainwater harvesting, safe storage, and gray-water reuse. In some areas, the focus may shift to flood, heat wave, and emergency preparedness, including strategies to address the additional risks placed on displaced populations from these and other climate-sensitive hazards. One possible outcome could be the development of an integrated early warning system, emergency response plans, and refugee management plans, along with increased capacity to provide shelter, drinking water, sanitation, and sustainable agricultural products to the most vulnerable populations.

Current surveillance and data sources

Successful work in this area will require the health community to partner closely with climate scientists and development professionals to move beyond the assessment of climate variability and disease outcomes to predictive models accounting for climate change to facilitate targeted adaptation. Partnerships with both the government and nongovernment sector will also be necessary. An integrated disease surveillance system already exists under the director general of health services; any new work on climate change and health should be linked to the already existing system. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in Delhi, India, is one example of such a group linking research and action by increasing awareness within India and sharing the “developing country” perspective on climate change with the rest of the world. Activities at TERI range from operating as a think tank at the local level to forging global alliances for collaborative research. Collaborative work is also being conducted at the National Institute of Malaria Research in partnership with Mercedes Pascual at the University of Michigan to assess the impacts of climate change on malaria and dengue at a national scale and to develop adaptation strategies. In addition, this same partnership is developing an evidence-based assessment of biophysical determinants affecting malaria in the northeastern states of India and a framework for malaria control under changing climate scenarios. Several other nongovernmental organizations are working on climate change in India, such as the Local Governments for Sustainability with a regional office in New Delhi; Resources for the Future, which is partnering closely with the Public Health Foundation of India; and Toxics Link, which is working on traditional environmental health with a new focus on climate change.

Retrospective studies investigating climate variability and health dominate the literature, leaving predictive and prospective studies related to climate change open to be explored. However, both prospective and retrospective studies need high-quality data. Working groups at the Goa workshop were able to identify existing and relevant long-term data sets that can be used for environmental epidemiological analysis. For example, both the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ( IITM 2010 ) and the India Meteorological Department (2010) have useful meteorological data with varying degrees of access. Additional government surveys such as the Census of India and the National Family Health Survey, India provide important information on social and economic variables. In some cases, individual investigators have accessed government hospital data sets and have daily all-cause mortality, albeit over a limited geography. The same goes for air pollution data, such as data on particulate matter (PM), which have been accessed at certain locations of interest, such as Chennai ( Ghosh et al. 2010 ). The use of exposure and emission models can help to fill in where air pollution data are missing; however, consistent monitoring of PM, ozone, and nitrogen oxides over a greater geographic area is needed. In cases where the data already exist, more work is needed to identify and access this type of long-term data, creating uniform repositories. In cases where it does not exist, surveillance and monitoring of relevant variables will be critical to the success of future prospective climate and health research endeavors. Furthermore, regional climate models for India such as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed at the IITM must be integrated with health data if we are going to transition away from surveying the health effects associated with climate variability to predicting the effects of climate change.

Changes to the current information infrastructure needed for this effort will depend on new or enhanced collaborations across multiple disciplines and among diverse institutions. Given the region-specific nature of the relationship between climate variability and health, further research is required throughout India. Satellite and geospatial technology may provide new insights regarding the geographic distribution of risk and disease. Integration of social, demographic, and land cover data with health data will aid in describing a holistic health scenario, which will help identify sustainable health solutions. These research needs and methodological limitations are relevant to many low- and middle-income countries. India, with its current health infrastructure and large population, can serve as an important natural laboratory for developing relevant strategies for promoting and managing climate health research in the developing world.

Recommendations

As a result of the Goa workshop and subsequent discussions, the following recommendations to advance research relevant to climate change and human health were proposed.

Environmental monitoring and surveillance

There is a great need to improve environmental monitoring and surveillance systems in low- and middle-income countries such as India. New research initiatives should focus on collecting high-quality, long-term data on climate-related health outcomes with the dual purpose of understanding current climate–health associations and predicting future scenarios. Health outcomes of interest, for which such data should be collected, include total morbidity and mortality and noncommunicable diseases such as cardiovascular, respiratory, and circulatory diseases and asthma, as well as infectious diseases such as cholera, malaria, tuberculosis, typhoid, hepatitis, dysentery, tick-borne encephalitis, and other vector-borne and waterborne diseases. Such monitoring also requires the collection of appropriate climatic (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and nonclimatic data (e.g., ozone). Surveillance of extreme weather conditions and risk indicators such as mosquito abundance or pathogen load is also necessary. Such data gathering should occur in conjunction with already existing public health programs and health centers. Where the necessary public health infrastructure does not exist, the anticipated risks associated with climate change should motivate international action to build such infrastructure. The collection of such diverse data necessitates the creation of linkable and documented repositories for meteorological, air pollution, and health data. Such a virtual network, or clearinghouse, will help researchers as well as practitioners as they work toward defining climate–health associations and designing effective interventions. Such monitoring provides the information and feedback necessary to take action in response to the anticipated changes in climate and burden on the public health infrastructure.

Geospatial technology

Geographic information systems and spatial analysis must be further developed; they are very useful tools when conducting vulnerability assessments, assessing environmental exposures, prioritizing research, and disseminating findings to decision makers and the public alike ( Jerrett et al. 2010 ). Remote sensing and environmental monitoring are particularly useful to catalog variables such as air pollution and heat exposure. Social data from census and surveys, which can be layered with the exposure data using geographic information systems, provide information on sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at both individual and community levels. Data on land use and land cover can provide additional information on relevant environmental factors that influence risk and vulnerability.

Such a spatial information infrastructure provides the necessary data-integration framework to combine information on human–environment interactions from a variety of sources. Vulnerability assessments can be conducted spatially and temporally through integration of such social and environmental data. Risk maps can incorporate social and ecological risk factors in an attempt to characterize the existing spatial heterogeneity. This is a very effective tool when predicting prevalence, targeting resource distribution, and designing control programs for different infectious diseases such as malaria ( Ageep et al. 2009 ; Haque et al. 2010 ; Reid et al. 2010 ; Tonnang et al. 2010 ). An example of such work, which grew out of the Goa workshop, will focus on the effect of socioeconomic status on the association between climate and malaria.

Human and technical capacity

For these new surveillance methods and analytical techniques to be effective, countries like India will need to enhance their human and technical capacity for risk communication. This could take the form of public education on climate change and associated health impacts to enhance awareness and to influence lifestyle, behavior, and individual choices to protect and improve health. Such health promotion materials could manifest as low-tech flyers and advertisements as well as more high-tech materials including web-based and mobile-phone–based alerts. On the other end of the spectrum, developing capacity could take on a more holistic approach, such as region- and city-specific climate action plans and early warning system for heat stress events, droughts, hurricanes, and floods.

Studies of climate variability and human health indicate a great deal of heterogeneity in the reported associations. This heterogeneity is partially due to differences in study design, but climatic and socioeconomic differences that vary by location also influence the burden of disease. It is not clear whether results from one region can be extrapolated to others. Therefore, it is important to develop a comprehensive catalog of climate change and associated health outcomes across the range of environments and populations likely to be affected. A better understanding of the effects of climate change on health in India will be best achieved through studies specific to climates and populations in India.

In 2008 India developed the National Action Plan on Climate Change, promising further enhancement of ecological sustainability as part of India’s development path, signaling their involvement in the international discussion on climate change. Countries like India have a tremendous opportunity to guide our future trajectory regarding sustainable development and adaptation to climate change, but it will take the combined effort of policy makers and scientists from around the world to address the complex challenges associated with climate change and human health.

In conclusion, innovative, multidisciplinary investigations using environmental epidemiologic methods to elucidate health risks posed by climate variability—and subsequent climate change—in regions such as India are possible. However, such work will require expanded partnerships among researchers, governments, and communities to develop a cobenefit strategy that addresses public health challenges and risks associated with climate change. Adoption and implementation of these research initiatives will provide the necessary tools and infrastructure to pose interesting scientific questions and design effective solutions to the complex issues imposed by climate change.

We thank all of the participants who contributed to the success of the 2009 Joint Indo-U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health, particularly K. Knowlton and A. Jaiswal from the Natural Resources Defense Council; S. Nair and colleagues at the Energy and Resources Institute; D. Sur from the National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases; partners from across the Indian Institutes of Technology, including S. Dash and M. Khare; those at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, including G. Beig and K. Kumar; and S. Reddy and associates from the Public Health Foundation of India.

This work is based on the 2009 workshop in Goa, India, which was principally supported by the University of Michigan Center for Global Health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Indian Council for Medical Research. K.F.B. was supported by a University of Michigan Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute doctoral fellowship.

The findings, conclusions, and recommendations in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Center for Global Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the Indian Council of Medical Research.

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Climate change and environmental sustainability, unicef estimates that by 2040, almost 600 million children globally are projected to be living in areas of extremely high-water stress.

India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018.1 This rise in temperature is caused largely on account of greenhouse gases (GHG) induced warming leading to climate change. In 2019, India was the 7th most affected country due to climate change led extreme weather events – both in terms of the fatalities (2,267 people) as well as the economic losses (66,182 million US$ PPP).2  In fact, extreme weather events due to climate change have led to 17 out of 20 people in India being vulnerable to extreme hydrological and meteorological (or “hydromet”) disasters like flood, drought and cyclone.3    UNICEF’s 2021 report titled ‘The Climate Crisis Is a Child Rights Crisis: Introducing the Children’s Climate Risk Index’  (CCRI), presents the first child-focused global climate risk index. The report ranks India as 26th out of 163 ranked countries. This implies that children in India are among the most ‘at-risk’ to the impacts of climate change, threatening their health, education, and protection.4 The same report also shares that around 90 per cent of the world’s children breathe poisonous air every day, while air pollution is associated with some of the biggest killers of children, such as pneumonia. In fact, globally, countries in Asia (including India as per reports) and Africa experience the highest age-standardized rates of death attributable to PM2.5 as found out in the State of Global Air report for 2020.5 With 21 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities being in India (IQ Air Report, 2020), millions are at risk to respiratory and other related illnesses. A Lancet study from 2018 estimates that air pollution in India killed 1.24 million people in 2017 (12.5 per cent of total deaths). 

 Besides pollution related fatality, the WHO predicts that an additional 250,000 climate-related deaths will occur globally – per year – between 2030 and 2050, given the current trajectory, from malnutrition, malaria diarrhoea and heat stress. Especially women and children are at risk, as well as other vulnerable groups such as people with disabilities. UNICEF estimates that by 2040, almost 600 million children globally are projected to be living in areas of extremely high-water stress.6 Moreover, close to 25 per cent of children in India are experiencing high/ extremely high-water vulnerability .7  

According to UN Women’s 2020 report on gender equality, “Men are 75 per cent of parliamentarians, hold 73 per cent of managerial positions, are 70 per cent of climate negotiators and almost all peace negotiators”. This means that women have inequitable shares of the decision-making power needed to address climate resilience issues that affect their employment, communities and families.  

According to WHO’s 2017 ‘Inheriting a Sustainable World?’, 26 per cent of under five deaths could be avoided by addressing environmental health risks. Climate change is an ever-increasingly presence in our daily lives, and as such, resilience and mitigation measures addressing its consequences need to be incorporated into UNICEF’s current and future programmes. This is particularly true in this last ‘Decade of Action’ before the world’s nations have to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals in 2030.   

According to UNEP’s 2020 Emissions Gap Report, a ‘green’ pandemic recovery in the aftermath of the spread of COVID-19 can ‘shave up to 25 per cent off the emissions we would expect to see in 2030 with the implementation of unconditional NDCs – bringing the world close to the 2° C pathway.  

UNICEF Approach in India

UNICEF’s climate and environmental sustainability strategy is anchored around four pillars- i) make children as focus on environmental strategies ii) reduce emission and pollution iii) empower children as agents of change, iv) protect children from impacts. t is the basis for our coordinated external advocacy, programmatic interventions, and internal greening efforts. Regarding our programmatic interventions, UNICEF has initially identified five areas where we have the potential to programmatically deliver climate related initiatives at scale in the near term:  a) climate smart health centres  b) climate smart schools  c) climate-resilient WASH services  d) tackling pollution (air, soil and water); and e) the engagement of children and young people.  The last area is considered as both a stand-alone area of focus, as well as integrated into each of the four other programmatic priorities.    

In 2020, after witnessing how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing inequities and collapsed social systems for vulnerable communities globally, UNICEF India recognized the importance of strengthening its support to communities to build their resilience against climactic and environmental shocks that could aggravate the spread of any future health outbreaks. Going forward, UNICEF India is committed to:    

Advocating for every child's right to a sustainable and healthy future.    

Influence government policy making efforts to promote inclusive and climate-responsive programming.   

Strengthening service delivery that reflect climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience outcomes.   

Empowering communities, especially women and children, with the resources they need to advocate for themselves and drive action; and   

Investing in opportunities for convergent programme delivery, public-private partnerships, and financing or funding that will effectively amplify positive inputs and results contributing to climate action and environmental sustainability.    

Over the coming two years, UNICEF seeks to identify opportunities with government partners and within programmatic blueprints to strengthen outputs related to building climate resilience, through adaptative and mitigative interventions being rolled-out for bolstering education, health, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), child protection, social protection and nutrition outcomes.   

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Compendium of best practices on climate action from Indian states

13 July 2022, 0:23 UTC

With climate change posing alarming threats to communities across India, subnational climate leadership is essential to meet climate and development targets. Many Indian states are spearheading key initiatives to elevate India’s climate ambition to the next level, acting as frontiers for climate action.

The ten case studies in this Compendium were developed as part of Climate Group’s India States Climate Leadership Project. We launched the State climate action series to shine a light on the best practices and success stories from Indian states. As part of this, we have published case studies across thematic areas and geographies in India. This Compendium is a collation of the best practices which showcased the state climate action leadership and promoted knowledge exchange, peer learning and global profiling.

Through the Compendium, we aim to showcase these states and their rightful role as leaders in unlocking barriers to climate solutions. 

Compendium of best practices on climate action from Indian states.pdf

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Date added: 13/07/22

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Research Article

Lethal heatwaves are challenging India’s sustainable development

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Software, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliations Cambridge Zero, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Division of Humanities and Social Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States of America

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Roles Conceptualization, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America

• Ramit Debnath, 
• Ronita Bardhan, 
• Michelle L. Bell

• Published: April 19, 2023
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156
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Due to the unprecedented burdens on public health, agriculture, and other socio-economic and cultural systems, climate change-induced heatwaves in India can hinder or reverse the country’s progress in fulfilling the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Moreover, the Indian government’s reliance on its Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), which may underestimate the impact of heatwaves on the country’s developmental efforts. An analytical evaluation of heat index (HI) with CVI shows that more than 90% of the country is at extremely cautious or dangerous levels of adversely impacting adaptive livelihood capacity, food grains yield, vector-borne disease spread and urban sustainability. The results also show by examining Delhi’s urban heat risk that heatwaves will critically hamper SDG progress at the urban scale. Linking HI with CVI identifies more of India’s vulnerability and provides an opportunity to rethink India’s climate adaptation policies through international cooperation in designing holistic vulnerability assessment methodologies. The conclusion emphasizes the urgent need to improve extreme weather impact assessment by combining multiple layers of information within the existing climate vulnerability measurement frameworks that can account for the co-occurrence and collision of climate change events and non-climate structural SDG interventions.

Citation: Debnath R, Bardhan R, Bell ML (2023) Lethal heatwaves are challenging India’s sustainable development. PLOS Clim 2(4): e0000156. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156

Editor: Bidhubhusan Mahapatra, Norwegian Refugee Council, JORDAN

Received: September 1, 2022; Accepted: March 12, 2023; Published: April 19, 2023

Copyright: © 2023 Debnath et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: The materials and data used in this paper are based on the Government of India's public repository, available at the National Data \& Analytics Platform (NDAP) { https://ndap.niti.gov.in/ }.

Funding: This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1144 to RD), Laudes Foundation (G111269 to RD), the Quadrature Climate Foundation (01-21-000149 to RD), Keynes Fund, Faculty of Economics (JHVH to RD and RB), and the Africa Albarado Grant (G115009 to RB). RD received salary from the Quadrature Climate Foundation, the Laudes Foundation, and the Keynes Fund. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

April 2022 in India was the hottest in 122 years and followed the hottest March on record, reportedly killing at least 25 people [ 1 , 2 ]. The cumulative heatwave-related mortality in India is over 24,000 deaths since 1992 [ 3 ]. Moreover, the heatwave in the Indian subcontinent has had critical impacts on a broad range of interconnected systems of the built environment, health, etc., including frequent and more extended power outages, an increase in dust and ozone levels leading to spikes in air pollution and accelerated melting of glacier snow in the northern regions. At the same time, economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is further hampering the response to the ongoing lethal heatwave [ 2 , 4 ]. Thus, such heatwaves’ public health and economic burdens are incredibly high.

Long-term projections indicate that Indian heatwaves could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human resting in the shade by 2050 [ 5 , 6 ]. Moreover, they will impact the labour productivity, economic growth, and quality of life of around 310–480 million people [ 6 ]. Estimates show a 15% decrease in outdoor working capacity (i.e., working outdoors in high temperatures, e.g., construction worker) during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050 [ 5 ]. Furthermore, a Lancet Report projected heatwaves will intensify from these 2050 baseline estimates, affecting around 600 million Indians by 2100 [ 7 ]. The increased heat is expected to cost India 2.8%, and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and depressed living standards by 2050 and 2100, respectively [ 5 , 8 ]. Furthermore, a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization demonstrated the interconnections between lethal heatwaves and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), implying that global mean surface temperature rise will affect all the 17 SDGs [ 9 ]. The impact of heatwaves on sustainability transition is especially concerning for India as the country is yet to achieve its developmental goals, despite recent strides in its self-reported SDG India Index (2020–21) [ 10 ].

India is currently facing a collision of multiple cumulative climate hazards co-occurring due to its size, urbanisation rate, and biophysical characteristics, significantly influencing the hydrological cycle and consequently affecting the behaviour of climate extremes [ 11 ]. In 2022 from January to October, India recorded 242 of 273 days of extreme weather events, making it nearly one extreme event daily. These include co-occurrence of extreme heatwaves and coldwaves in the north and western parts, drought in central India [ 12 ], and high flooding in the coastal plains along with landslides in north-eastern region [ 12 , 13 ]. By 2100 India will have more frequent precipitation and consequent floods, cyclonic storms, warming, heatwaves, and sea-level rise concurrently. To comprehensively understand India’s climate vulnerability, a cumulative representative index is imperative that accounts for the co-occurrence and collision of climate events. At present, India assesses its climate vulnerability through a national Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI), designed by the federal government’s Department of Science and Technology [ 14 ], based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s SREX framework. The concept of vulnerability used by the Government of India is adopted from the IPCC AR5 [ 15 ] where it is conceptualised as an ‘internal property of a system’ that represents the propensity or predisposition of the system to be adversely affected, independent of hazard and exposure [ 15 ]. The CVI is a composite index that uses various indicators to account for India’s socio-economic features and livelihood, biophysical, institutional and infrastructural characteristics (see Table 2, pp. 11–12 in [ 14 ]). These indicators were further mapped to related SDG indicators [ 16 ], as presented in Table 1 . The mapping of the CVI indicators with the SDG was performed based on (i) key domain of impact, (ii) keywords that match the SDG, and (iii) based on the Government of India’s SDG indicators. When all these criteria matched for a CVI indicator, it was assigned to the specific SDG. For example indicator–“Percentage of households below the poverty line as of 2011” is related to reducing poverty or SDG1- No Poverty.

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156.t001

While there are few methodological and sensitivity analyses for CVI [ 17 – 19 ], it is the only official federal measure available for the country’s climate adaptation planning [ 14 ]. Therefore, we use it to analyse how lethal waves can challenge the progress in the nation’s SDGs and the implications of heatwave impacts on India’s climate vulnerability assessments—at the same time, examining the missed opportunity of not having heat-related policy measures in its current CVI-led assessment.

There is a knowledge gap in the literature evaluating the appropriateness of CVI as a holistic vulnerability measure [ 17 – 19 ]. Contributing to this measurement gap, Edmonds, Lovell and Lovell [ 20 ] proposed a multiple climate vulnerability index to make it a comprehensive measure for empirically estimating the exposure, mitigation and adaptive capacity [ 20 ]. However, the authors did not mention how such an index-based measure can be used as an effective decision-making tool to ensure that progress in SDGs is not reversed. This gap is persistent in the current literature as climate vulnerability indices like India’s CVI use socio-economic indicators to measure vulnerability, which links it with SDG indicators. Whereas, in the case of extreme weather events, the measures are primarily based on hazard probabilities (like the Heat Index (HI). Using these measures as overlapping information layers can improve the overall climate vulnerability assessment. This shapes the paper’s motivation, which is not to compare CVI and HI for India, but instead to provide an empirical basis for evaluating and rethinking India’s approach to vulnerability measurement, especially when the impact of an extreme weather event like heatwaves challenges its development goals and climate adaptation policies [ 3 ].

This paper uniquely contributes to the above gap by examining the following questions: (1) What does India’s current climate vulnerability assessment miss in terms of identifying the vulnerability caused by the heatwaves? (2) To what extent is SDG progress impacted by the absence of a holistic vulnerability measurement? Furthermore, (3) How to co-design policies for improving climate vulnerability assessment in India?

Using the 2022 heatwaves across India as a case study, this paper analyses its vulnerability impact using Heat Index (HI). It discusses this impact assessment with the latest CVI-led SDG ranking across the Indian states and the national capital using publicly available federal data (see Methods section).

This study is designed in two stages to demonstrate that a holistic climate measurement is important across different spatial scales for India. Here, we set the scope of study at a state level and an urban scale. Due to a lack of data, we could not evaluate a more granular scale (like at the district level). The first stage analyses CVI in the country using the latest publicly available government data. The next step estimates the HI and temperature anomaly across India for April 2022. It performs a normative heatwave impact assessment on India’s SDG progress. In the second stage, a scaled-down analysis was performed at an urban scale for Delhi to evaluate its HI and assess its impact on the national capital’s urban sustainability. This was done as a case study to show the severity of heatwaves at an urban scale, especially emphasising the need for contextualised heatwave impact studies.

The case of Delhi is interesting because it is the largest city and the capital of India, with a population of 32,065,760 [ 21 ], which is at high risk from heatwaves [ 22 ] and was the first to draft a State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC). The SAPCC was recently updated with 17 climate risks (see Methods ), including urban heat islands but without considering heatwaves. This paper argues that such state-level vulnerability assessment methodology can be improved by considering the heatwave impacts and upgrading its climate adaptation policies. Finally, broader implications were drawn from international efforts on heatwave adaptation at the national climate vulnerability scale and shaped the discussion on the urgency of similar policy action for India and its neighbouring nations.

Materials and methods

State-level cvi and hi estimation.

This paper used a publicly available dataset on state-level climate vulnerability indicators from the Indian Government’s National Data & Analytics Platform (NDAP) [ 23 ]. The first step was to reference this data with the National Climate Vulnerability Assessment Framework by the Department of Science and Technology [ 14 ] to classify the severity categories (Low, Moderate and High). Then, India’s 2019 Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) map was constructed using this dataset. In subsequent steps, we evaluated the Heat Index (HI) for April 2022 for India at a state level. Here we assume that exposure to a hazard like extreme heat (measured through HI) can significantly impact climate vulnerability. This impact measurement is currently missing in the Indian Government’s vulnerability assessment through CVI.

HI measures how hot it feels when relative humidity is factored in with actual air temperature. It is a widely used heat exposure metric in environmental health research [ 24 ]. A similar approach was used for estimating district-level HI for Delhi to understand the effects of urbanisation on heat risks [ 25 ].

The T and R values were extracted from publicly available Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) April 2022 temperature profiles [ 27 ]. The temperature anomaly data for the same month was obtained from the IMD. The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) interconnection with CVI is established as per the ‘indicator rationale’ presented in Table 2 (pages 11–12) of [ 14 ] and Government of India’s SDG Index Dashboard 2020–21 [ 16 ]. The CVI indicators were mapped to the corresponding UN SDG. The resultant value of the indicator was then plotted using the colour of the SDG, where the colour gradient represents the rank of the CVI. Thus, the higher the value of an indicator, the deeper the colour of the box. For example, a deeper colour gradient was used if a CVI indicator conforms to a particular SDG and has a high value for a specific state. The colour was related to the corresponding SDG to which the indicator belonged. CVI and HI spatial maps representing the state-wise severity levels were constructed through spatial analysis in ArcGIS v10.8.1. The GIS shapefiles were adapted from open repositories like github, respective licenses are mentioned in Figs 1 and 4 .

(A) CVI illustrated as Low, Moderate and High levels across states.; (B) Estimated heatwave impact (HI) in April 2022 using data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) (data source: [ 27 ]). (C) Temperature anomaly caused in India due to heatwaves in April 2022, estimated using the IMD data (source: [ 27 ]) [Note: Due to lack of data, the Union Territories of India (except 30.Ladakh) are excluded from our analysis. The GIS shapefile for the spatial analysis is adopted from [ 33 ] under MIT License].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156.g001

The Government of India’s classification [ 23 ] was used to rank the CVI scores across states as Low, Moderate and High. Low levels show less climate vulnerability. Moderate indicates medium and high levels indicate high levels of climate vulnerability. Similarly, for the HI, NOAA’s classification standards [ 26 ] as Low Risk, Caution, Extreme Caution, Danger and Extreme Danger was used. This HI categorisation refers to the effects of heat on the human body, i.e., Caution: fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and activity. Continuing activity could result in heat cramps; Extreme Caution: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely. Continuing activity could result in heat stroke; Danger: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely; heat stroke is probable with continued activity; Extreme danger: heat stroke is imminent [ 26 ].

State-level CVI and HI impact on the UN SDGs

A trend analysis was conducted to map India’s progress in UN SDGs over 20 years (2001–2021) using United Nation’s SDG Index Score [ 28 ], with extreme weather-related mortality from 2001–2021. The trend data was taken from Mahapatra, Walia and Saggurti (2018) [ 29 ] and the Indian Government’s National Crime Record Bureau data on accidental deaths by natural causes [ 30 ]. Next, the severity categories of the states for CVI and HI were mapped to judge the relative position of SDG vulnerability. For example, suppose a state receives a low rank in CVI but a high rank in HI. The relative positioning of the SDG vulnerability will imply that the SDG indicators respective to the low-CVI scores will not be prioritised. However, specific SDG indicators will be over-stressed due to a high HI-score, which needs to be highlighted in the state’s vulnerability assessment. We present this contrasting analysis in the state-level CVI and HI analysis.

Urban-level CVI and HI estimation

In the next step, the case of heatwaves in New Delhi was studied as a scaled-down analysis to discuss heat risks on its urban sustainability. As a baseline, Delhi Government’s latest vulnerability assessment measure through the State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) [ 31 , 32 ] was used. The SAPCC also classifies vulnerability into three categories: Low, Medium and High. Finally, the vulnerability score is estimated based on 17 risks: migrant population, rate of urbanisation, disabled population, the area under forest cover, total vehicle, solid waste generation, water vulnerable areas, water bodies, parks and tree canopy, tap water connection, sewage treatment plants, effluent treatment plants, stormwater drainage, below-poverty-line families, rooftop solar power and registered electric vehicles and urban heat islands (source: [ 31 , 32 ]).

Increase in heatwave-related vulnerability

Fig 1 captures the extent of heatwave-related vulnerabilities in India, which is missed by the present CVI assessment. It shows the current status of India’s climate vulnerability in Fig 1A ; based on 2019 CVI estimates, the eastern states (except West Bengal) have high climate vulnerability. However, when CVI scores with the HI levels were compared, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh (a southern state) fall in the ‘extreme danger’ category (see Fig 1B ). Similarly, almost 45% of the country is at moderate CVI levels (see Fig 1A ). However, HI estimates show that more than 90% of India is in the ‘extremely cautious’ or ‘danger’ range (see Fig 1B for this categorisation). Furthermore, the states categorised as’ low’ in CVI rankings are in danger’ Heat Index categories, demonstrating that heatwaves put more people at extreme climate risk across India than estimated by CVI.

Results also show that April 2022 temperature anomalies were exceptionally high (above 4°C) in the northern regions classified as ‘moderate’ in the CVI scores. In addition, states like Punjab and Haryana have experienced a temperature anomaly of 6–7°C, otherwise classified as ‘low’ CVI areas. This high-temperature anomaly zone also includes Delhi, making it most prone to future heatwaves (see Fig 1A and 1C ).

Heatwaves weakening SDG progress across Indian states

The different implications of HI on India’s SDG indicators are shown in Fig 2 . Results indicate that the use of CVI may underestimate the actual burden of climate change concerning heat, suggesting India’s need to reconsider its assessment of climate vulnerabilities to meet the SDGs. This is more so because a CVI that does not include measures of the primary climate change risks/threats (in this study, heatwaves) may fail to identify regions of greatest vulnerability to climate change at the intersection of climate extremes and non-climate, structural and social-economic factors that increase sensitivity. Missing the primary extreme events in conjunction with the contextual factors like differential adaptive capacity that fosters resilience may underestimate the vulnerability [ 34 ] and its subsequent undermining of the sustainable development goals.

The y-axis represents the state-wise HI categories (extreme danger, danger, extreme caution, caution and low risk). The x-axis represents the state-wise CVI categories per UN SDGs. States with blank CVI scores for corresponding SDGs is due to missing data (source: [ 16 ]).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156.g002

Considering the multi-dimensional and cross-sectional nature of climate vulnerability, it is imperative to reflect on the social, cultural, economic, and structural development factors, their inter-relationships, and environmental vulnerabilities. For example, Andhra Pradesh is in extreme danger in HI, affecting SDG-3 (Good health and well-being) and SDG-15 (Life on land). However, these SDGs are considered moderate in the CVI classification (see [ 8 ] and Fig 1A ). For West Bengal, in the same extreme danger HI range (see Fig 2 ), the SDGs that are most critical and will be severely affected are SDG-3 (Good health and well-being), SDG-5 (Gender equality), SDG-8 (Decent work and economic growth) and SDG-15 (Life on land). In this case, the CVI Range for these SDG were also in the high values indicating these SDGs were already stressed in the state. With heatwaves, their fulfilment can further get challenging. Apart from heatwaves, this state is highly vulnerable to flooding and tropical cyclones [ 35 , 36 ].

The trend analysis of the last 20 years from 2001–2021 (see Fig 3 ) on the SDG progress with the mortality due to extreme weather events shows that while the effect of extreme weather events has intensified, the pace of SDG progress is slower. In the last three years (2019–2021), India’s Global SDG rank has declined due to failure in achieving the targets for 11 of the 17 SDGs [ 28 ]. Most of the 11 SDGs India lags on are critically related to climate action. India’s preparedness and performance on SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) has declined significantly [ 28 ]. This becomes severe due to the strong correlation between these SDGs [ 37 , 38 ]. Thus, in terms of urban sustainability (SDG-11), the failure to develop appropriate low-income housing leaves a significant proportion of the population vulnerable to extreme weather events like heatwaves [ 39 , 40 ].

(source: SDG Index score [ 28 ], Death: [ 29 , 30 ]).

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The ‘danger’ HI range covers over 80% of Indian states (see Fig 1B ). However, in Fig 2 , many states are classified as moderate or low in the CVI ranking (see Fig 1A ). Highlighting such measurement discrepancies is especially important as the lack of HI accountability in vulnerability mapping can slow down SDG progress and climate adaptation capabilities (supporting the conclusion of [ 41 , 42 ]). For example, Tamil Nadu is assigned a low CVI score reflected across its SDG targets (SDG-2, 8 and 15), implying that even though it has a low climate vulnerability across this sector, heatwaves can significantly impact its socio-economic, livelihood and biophysical quality.

As shown in Fig 1C , northern states are particularly prone to higher temperature anomalies, which supports the latest heatwave pattern across the Indian subcontinent [ 43 , 44 ]. While almost 95% of northern India is under extreme caution and danger HI ranges, ensuring SDG progress becomes even more critical. For example, the most common factors under high climate vulnerability in these states are associated with SDG-2,3, 8 and 15 (see Fig 2 ), which includes agricultural production, employment security and health (as per the Government of India’s CVI estimation, see [ 14 ]). In addition, its sub-indicators include income shares from natural resources, marginal and small landholdings, adaptive livelihood capacity through the MGNREGA program, yield variability of food grains, vector-borne diseases and water-borne diseases (see Table 2 in [ 14 ]). Our findings show that heatwaves will impact all of the above at a grander scale than previously estimated with CVI.

Low HI-risk states also have climate vulnerabilities that will not be affected by heatwaves as much as the states mentioned above. However, Ladakh has a high CVI range impacting SDG-3,5, 8 and 9, implying that the government must continue progress on these SDGs to mitigate its climate vulnerability.

Heatwaves threatening national capital’s urban sustainability

Delhi government’s latest iteration of the State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) [ 31 ] found high inter-district variability among the standard critical drivers of vulnerability (discussed in Methods) in Delhi, as shown in Fig 4A .

(A) District-level climate change vulnerability assessment as per the Delhi Government classification.; (B) Air temperature during heatwaves, and (C) Estimated heat index (HI) at district-level. The GIS shapefile for the spatial analysis is adopted from [ 45 ] under the CC BY-SA 2.5 IN license.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000156.g004

The Delhi government’s assessment shows that the South and North-East Delhi are most vulnerable to climate change impacts (see Fig 4A ), which are also the most affluent areas [ 32 ]. However, our estimation shows that 100% of the city is at ‘Danger’ HI levels (see Fig 1B and 1C ). In addition, by downscaling the HI to the district level in Fig 4C , results show that even the ‘low’ climate-vulnerable areas in Delhi are at high heatwave risks. This is concerning as the current heat-action plans [ 46 ] are designed and implemented per the Delhi government’s vulnerability assessment, which does not include HI estimations. In addition, the high intensity of development in Central, East, West and North-East districts (i.e., the old Delhi area) can further elevate the HI risks through heat island formation. (supporting the findings of [ 47 , 48 ]).

Lack of holistic vulnerability measurements impact India’s SDGs

This study shows that heatwaves make more Indian states vulnerable to climate change than previously estimated with the CVI. Our results show that more than 90% of India is in the ‘extremely cautious’ or ‘danger’ range of heatwave impacts through Heat Index (HI), which is otherwise considered as ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ vulnerability (through CVI, see Figs 1 and 2 ). As the heatwaves in India and the Indian subcontinent become recurrent and long-lasting, it is high time that climate experts and policymakers reevaluate the metrics for assessing the country’s climate vulnerability.

In addition, the findings uniquely reveal that the state-level SDGs in India, considered the basis for CVI, suffer extensive vulnerability due to a lack of consideration of heat impacts at the policy level. It is to be noted that India is already very selective of SDGs in its CVI estimation (see Table 1 ). Such extreme weather events can have spillover effects on SDGs that are not considered. For example, urban India is already very vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its proximity to coastal areas and topological factors in general, resource dependence and existing environmental risks [ 49 ]. By 2025, 70 Indian cities are expected to have more than 1 million inhabitants [ 50 ]. A lack of a holistic climate vulnerability assessment process will slow progress towards meeting SDG-11 (sustainable cities and communities). Such under-reporting of legacy vulnerabilities can severely affect its urban sustainability, as more than 70% of India’s building stock is yet to be built [ 51 ].

Heatwave challenging India’s urban sustainability

In Fig 3 , a trend analysis showed India’s preparedness and performance of SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) had declined significantly [ 28 ]. Furthermore, regional analysis in the SDG-11 context showed that Delhi’s urban sustainability is severely challenged as its current district-level climate change vulnerability measurements (through SAPCC) do not factor in heatwave impacts (see Fig 4 ). The results emphasise that Delhi’s vulnerability assessment does not consider the variables the national CVI estimation considers, supporting our argument that there needs to be more standardisation for vulnerability assessment in India across federal, state and local levels. Additionally, CVI does not account for the structural sustainable development interventions that are not often related to climate but might impact the coping capacity thresholds for the population. For example, affordable housing is mainly developed to close the housing deficit in the low-income population. However, it can act as a coping mechanism to climate-related heat stress if it is designed to allow better ventilation for heat removal or provides open spaces that encourage community networking. Such networks can then act as mechanisms to build climate resilience. Thus, fulfilling the SDG-11 and SDG-13 agendas. Therefore, vulnerability assessments must account for the interaction between primary climate events and non-climate interventions to progress interdependent SDG goals.

Our results showed that Delhi lies in the 6–7°C temperature anomaly zone, with HI in the danger category (see Figs 1 and 4 ). Some of the critical variables in Delhi that will aggravate heat-related vulnerabilities are like concentration of slum population and overcrowding in high HI areas, lack of access to basic amenities like electricity, water and sanitation, non-availability of immediate healthcare and health insurance, poor condition of housing and dirty cooking fuel (traditional biomass, kerosene and coal). Reducing these vulnerabilities needs structural interventions through the fulfilment of SDG 3, 9, 11 and 10, which are currently missing in India’s SDG focus areas (see Fig 2 ). While some of these variables are considered by the Delhi government in their vulnerability assessment of a small sample of slum households (n = 392) in high-temperature hotspot zones [ 52 ], a significant gap remains in scaling and implementation as heat-action policy frameworks do not exist in practice. The HI analysis for Delhi also supports the existing SAPCC’s vulnerability assessment that affluent areas are at high risk (see Fig 4 ). Since in Delhi, most of the slum settlements co-exist near affluent neighbourhoods [ 47 ], it will have unprecedented consequences on the low-income population. It will pose a threat to energy security (SDG—7), public health and well-being (SDG—3) and reverse progress in reduced inequality (SDG—10) and poverty action (SDG—1). Furthermore, as a rapidly urbanising city, Delhi has a high level of construction activities, mostly involving a low-income labour force, who are also at severe risk from heatwave impacts.

India ranks Delhi as the second-best performer in terms of UN-SDG progress [ 16 ]. It ranks highest in SDG-7 (clean and affordable energy) and has made positive progress towards SDG-1 (no poverty), SDG-3 (good health and well-being), SDG-4 (quality education), SDG-8 (decent work and growth), SDG-10 (reduced inequality), and SDG-11 (sustainable cities and communities) [ 16 ]. However, with the unaccounted HI risk, this ranking is threatened even with its bespoke climate vulnerability assessment using the 17 risk indicators (see Fig 4A ). Moreover, it pressures the adaptive capacity of the migrant population, below-poverty-line families, disabled people, and slum population, severely challenging Delhi’s urban sustainability.

The case of Delhi emphasises that heat is an urban killer and can be modulated through artificial interventions. How we design our cities strongly determines heatwave impacts, eventually affecting the SDGs. Therefore, most urgently, upcoming heat-action policies need to standardise and streamline vulnerability assessments in India.

Emphasizing the multidimensional nature of CVI and its policy

India has demonstrated tremendous leadership in scaling up heat action plans in the last five years by declaring heatwaves a natural disaster and mobilising appropriate relief resources [ 53 ]. In addition, the states have begun adopting the newly launched national guidelines for prevention and management of heatwave [ 54 ], a one-of-a-kind heat action plan in practice only for the city of Ahmedabad since 2013. There are also plans to improve heatwave nowcasting and vulnerability mapping [ 3 ]. However, it is high time that due attention is given to how India assesses its climate vulnerabilities while progressing in its SDGs in the recurring extreme weather context.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has long recognised the importance of international cooperation and knowledge transfer to improve climate vulnerability assessment while fulfilling global climate objectives [ 55 ]. The results further emphasise the need for India to rethink its vulnerability assessment strategies at a national sustainability policy scale with the increasing severity of heatwaves. International lessons can help in its reevaluation as well [ 56 ]. While there is yet to be a globally accepted universal climate vulnerability index, this study showed the need to incorporate the multidimensional aspects of vulnerability while capturing the co-occurrence and interactions of the climate events capturing the co-occurrence and interactions of the climate events with economic and structural development changes primarily related to SDGs. It further emphasises UN SDG-17 (Partnership for the goals), which is not present in its current CVI methodologies. For example, Bhutan aims to integrate heat risk in an all-hazards risk management system with specific emphasis on improving SDG-4 (Quality Education) through a climate-resilient education system [ 57 ]; however, at present, no information exists on heat vulnerability for Bhutan [ 3 ].

Similarly, Pakistan plans to strengthen extreme heat risk management in the southern region close to India’s highest temperature anomaly zones (see Fig 1C ). Nonetheless, it lacks risk sensitisation and local heat health action plans [ 3 ]. Bangladesh has limited knowledge of heat hotspots and vulnerability mapping across areas within Indian borders. There is a real opportunity for regional partnerships across the Indian subcontinent.

Lessons can also be learnt from global heat preparedness leaders like Australia, the US, the UK and the European Union (EU). For example, the Australian government is set to use the Integrated Heat Vulnerability Assessment Toolkit to measure heat sensitivity and heat adaptive capability indicators at national, regional and city scales [ 58 ]. It is built on the successful Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI), already in use across Melbourne, Dandenong, and Bendigo [ 59 ]. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and Met Office have recently launched their comprehensive Heatwave plan for England with detailed heatwave alert levels (see pp 13 in [ 60 ]). As a policy, it is designed to work with UK’s existing climate vulnerability measurements [ 60 ]. In the US, the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) releases guides for health departments to assess health vulnerabilities to climate change through a federal Climate and Health program that helps local authorities holistically track climate-related health vulnerabilities (along with heat effects) [ 61 ]. The EU has strategically identified that long-term intersectoral cooperation, surveillance, and plan evaluation can build resilience towards heatwave impacts [ 62 ].

This paper consistently emphasises that there are opportunities for upgrading existing vulnerability assessments for future lethal heatwaves, which is critical to preventing the reversal of India’s SDG progress.

Heatwaves around the globe are getting recurrent, intense and lethal due to climate change. The 2022 Indian heatwave was severe. This paper shows that for India, a vulnerability index (CVI) that does not include measures of the primary climate change risks/threats (like heatwaves) may fail to identify regions of greatest vulnerability to climate change, especially those at the intersection of climate extremes and non-climate, structural and social-economic factors (indicated through SDGs) that increase sensitivity. Results showed that combining HI with CVI can identify practical climate vulnerability impacts that account for extreme weather events at the state level. This, in turn, aids in developing a better understanding of India’s SDG progress. This paper advocates the urgency of improving India’s extreme weather vulnerability assessment while supporting its developmental needs. The same empirical viewpoint can be valid for other weather-related parameters like temperature, precipitation, humidity, etc., to cover extreme weather events, which remain a future work, along with the need for standardization of India’s climate vulnerability assessment at a granular level.

The analysis presented in this paper is limited in its scope to prescribe methods for improving India’s (or any nation’s) CVI estimations across the spectrum of extreme weather events. Due to a lack of data, there was a time lag between the CVI (2019–2020) and HI (2022) estimates that affected the accuracy of CVI vs HI categorization in Figs 1 and 2 . A more updated CVI dataset could provide a more realistic state vulnerability ranking to the HI scores. This study assumed that the hazard probability measured through HI could represent the climate vulnerability measured through CVI. The vulnerability paradox suggests that long-term exposure to elevated levels of climate extremes generate asymmetry in coping capacity and can foster short-term resilience [ 34 ]. Hence, future work would need to derive a composite index with its vulnerability, hazard, adaptive/coping capacity of the population and exposure level at a national and urban scale to compare CVI with heatwave risks for assessing SDG progress.

Further studies should be conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of indices like CVI and HI across different climatic conditions across local, national and international scales to understand their usefulness in the climate change context. Moreover, the two scales presented in this study pave the way for India’s district-level heatwave impact analysis. Small area estimation results can help gross root-level climate change preparedness planning.

This paper shows evidence from the 2022 incidences of severe heatwaves in India (based on April 2022) that abnormal temperature rises from climate change could severely impact over 90% of the country. More accurate estimates can be derived with more data points and macro trend analysis. This lack of data infrastructure must be mitigated for better climate vulnerability assessment. However, the core implication of this paper is that such extreme weather events will intensify the adverse effects on productivity, health, and well-being, potentially slowing down SDG progress. While India can gain from global partnerships on mitigation and adaptation to heatwave impacts, the neighbouring nations can learn from India’s capacity building to a holistic climate vulnerability assessment. India can begin appropriate adaptation planning only with a whole-system treatment of its climate vulnerabilities.

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Protecting people from a changing climate: The case for resilience

About the authors.

This article is a collaborative effort by Harry Bowcott , Lori Fomenko, Alastair Hamilton , Mekala Krishnan , Mihir Mysore , Alexis Trittipo, and Oliver Walker.

The United Nations’ 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report stated —with higher confidence than ever before—that, without meaningful decarbonization, global temperatures will rise to at least 1.5°C above preindustrial levels within the next two decades. 1 Climate change 2021: The physical science basis , Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), August 2021, ipcc.ch. This could have potentially dangerous and irreversible effects. A better understanding of how a changing climate could affect people around the world is a necessary first step toward defining solutions for protecting communities and building resilience. 2 For further details on how a changing climate will impact a range of socioeconomic systems, see “ Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts ,” McKinsey Global Institute, January 16, 2020.

As part of our knowledge partnership with Race to Resilience at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, we have built a detailed, global assessment of the number of people exposed to four key physical climate hazards, primarily under two different warming scenarios. This paper lays out our methodology and our conclusions from this independent assessment.

A climate risk analysis focused on people: Our methodology in brief

Our research consists of a global analysis of the exposure of people’s lives and livelihoods to multiple hazards related to a changing climate. This analysis identifies people who are potentially vulnerable to four core climate hazards—heat stress, urban water stress, agricultural drought, and riverine and coastal flooding—even if warming is kept within 2.0°C above preindustrial levels.

Our methodology

The study integrates climate and socioeconomic data sources at a granular level to evaluate exposure to climate hazards. We used an ensemble mean of a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 —using a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) for urban water stress—with analysis conducted under two potential warming scenarios: global mean temperature increases above preindustrial levels of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. We sometimes use the shorthand of “1.5°C warming scenario” and “2.0°C warming scenario” to describe these scenarios. Our modeling of temperatures in 2030 refers to a multidecadal average between 2021 and 2040. When we say 2050, we refer to a multidecadal average between 2041 and 2060. These are considered relative to a reference period, which is dependent on hazard basis data availability (which we sometimes refer to as “today”).

We built our analysis by applying 2030 and 2050 population-growth projections to our 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios, respectively. This amount of warming by those time periods is consistent with an RCP 8.5 scenario, relative to the preindustrial average. Climate science makes extensive use of scenarios. We chose a higher emissions scenario of RCP 8.5 to measure the full inherent risk from a changing climate. Research also suggests that cumulative historical emissions, which indicate the actual degree of warming, have been in line with RCP 8.5. 1 For further details, see “ Climate risk and response ,” January 16, 2020, appendix; see also Philip B. Duffy, Spencer Glendon, and Christopher R. Schwalm, “RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) , August 2020, Volume 117, Number 33, pp. 19656–7, pnas.org. In some instances, we have also considered a scenario in which decarbonization actions limit warming and 1.5°C of warming relative to the preindustrial levels is only achieved in 2050, rather than in 2030. For our analysis we used models which differ to some extent on their exact amount of warming and timing, even across the same emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Naturally, all forward-looking climate models are subject to uncertainty, and taking such an ensemble approach to our model allows us to account for some of that model uncertainty and error. 2 For a more detailed discussion of these uncertainties, see chapter 1 of “ Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts ,” McKinsey Global Institute, January 16, 2020. However, the mean amount of warming typically seen across our ensemble of models is approximately 1.5°C by 2030 and 2.0°C by 2050.

Our analysis consisted of three major steps (see technical appendix for details on our methodology):

First, we divided the surface of the planet into a grid composed of five-kilometer cells, with climate hazards and socioeconomic data mapped for each cell.

Second, in each of those cells, we combined climate and socioeconomic data to estimate the number and vulnerability of people likely to be exposed to climate hazards. These data were categorized on the basis of severity and classified on the basis of exposure to one or more hazards at the grid-cell level.

Third, taking into account people’s vulnerability, we examined the potential impact of our four core hazards on the current and future global population. To do this, we assessed, globally, the number and vulnerability of people affected by different types and severities of hazards. We then aggregated the data from each cell up to the subnational, national, subcontinental, continental, and global levels to allow for comparison across countries.

It’s important to note that we carefully selected these four hazards because they capture the bulk of hazards likely to affect populations on a global scale. We did not account for a range of other hazards such as wildfires, extreme cold, and snow events. Further, our analysis accounts only for first-order effects of climate hazards and does not take into account secondary or indirect effects, which can have meaningful impact. Drought, for example, can lead to higher food prices and even migration—none of which are included in our analysis. Thus, the number of people affected by climate hazards is potentially underestimated in this work.

A focus on four main climate hazards

For our study, we used global data sets covering four key hazards: heat stress, urban water stress, agricultural drought, and riverine and coastal flooding. We relied on data from a selection of CMIP5 climate models, unless otherwise specified. For further details, see the technical appendix.

Heat stress

Heat stress can have meaningful impacts on lives and livelihoods as the climate changes. Heat stress is measured using wet-bulb temperature, which combines heat and humidity. We assess heat stress in the form of acute exposure to humid heat-wave occurrence as well as potential chronic loss in effective working hours, both of which depend on daily wet-bulb temperatures. Above a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C, heat stress can be fatal.

Acute humid heat waves are defined by the average wet-bulb temperature of the hottest six-hour period during a rolling three-day period in which the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature exceeds 34°C for three consecutive days. 3 Analysis of lethal heat waves in our previous McKinsey Global Institute report (see “ Climate risk and response ,” January 16, 2020) was limited to urban populations, and the temperature threshold was set to 34°C wet-bulb temperature under the assumption that the true wet-bulb temperature would actually be 35°C due to an additional 1°C from the urban heat-island effect. Heat-wave occurrence was calculated for each year for both a reference time period 4 The reference period for heat stress refers to the average between 1998 and 2017. and our two future time periods and translated into annual probabilities. Exposure was defined as anyone living in either an urban or rural location with at least a 2 percent annual probability of experiencing such a humid heat wave in any given year. Acute humid heat waves of 34°C or higher can be detrimental to health, even for a healthy and well-hydrated human resting in the shade, because the body begins to struggle with core body-temperature regulation and the likelihood of experiencing a heat stroke increases.

Chronic heat stress was assessed for select livelihoods and defined by processing daily mean air temperature and relative humidity data into a heat index and translating that into the fraction of average annual effective working hours lost due to heat exposure. This calculation was conducted following the methods of John P. Dunne et al., 5 John P. Dunne, Ronald J. Stouffer, and Jasmin G. John, “Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming,” Nature Climate Change , 2013, Volume 3, Number 6, pp. 563–6, nature.com. using empirically corrected International Organization for Standardization (ISO) heat-exposure standards from Josh Foster et al. 6 Josh Foster et al., “A new paradigm to quantify the reduction of physical work capacity in the heat,” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise , 2019, Volume 51, Number 6S, p. 15, journals.lww.com.

We combined groups of people who were exposed to both chronic and acute heat stress to assess the aggregate number of people exposed. Heat stress can affect livelihoods, particularly for those employed in outdoor occupations, most prominently because an increased need for rest and a reduction in the body’s efficiency reduce effective working hours. Therefore, our analysis of potential exposure to chronic heat stress was limited to people estimated to be working in agriculture, crafts and trades, elementary, factory-based, and manufacturing occupations likely to experience at least a 5 percent loss of effective working hours on average annually. We excluded managers, professional staff, and others who are more likely to work indoors, in offices, or in other cooled environments from this analysis.

Urban water stress

Urban water stress 7 The reference period for water stress refers to the average between 1950 and 2010. often occurs in areas in which demand for water from residents, local industries, municipalities, and others exceeds the available supply. This issue can become progressively worse over time as demand for water continues to increase and supply either remains constant, decreases due to a changing climate, or even increases but not quickly enough to match demand. This can reduce urban residents’ access to drinking water or slow production in urban industry and agriculture.

Our analysis of water stress is limited to urban areas partially because water stress is primarily a demand-driven issue that is more influenced by socioeconomic factors than by changes in climate. We also wanted to avoid methodological overlap with our agricultural drought analysis, which mostly focused on rural areas.

We define urban water stress as the ratio of water demand to supply for urban areas globally. We used World Resources Institute (WRI) data for baseline water stress today and the SSP2 scenario for future water stress outlooks, where 2030 represents the 1.5°C warming scenario and 2040 represents the 2.0°C warming scenario. We only considered severe water stress, defined as withdrawals of 80 percent or more of the total supply, which WRI classifies as “extremely high” water stress.

We make a distinction for “most severe” urban water stress, defined as withdrawals of more than 100 percent of the total supply, to show how many people could be affected by water running out—a situation that will require meaningful interventions to avoid. However, for the sake of the overall exposure analysis, people exposed to the most severe category are considered to be exposed to “severe” water stress unless otherwise noted (exhibit).

Agricultural drought

Agricultural drought 8 The reference period for agricultural drought refers to the average between 1986 and 2005. is a slow-onset hazard defined by a period of months or years that is dry relative to a region’s normal precipitation and soil-moisture conditions, specifically, anomalously dry soils in areas where crops are grown. Drought can inhibit plant growth and reduce plant production, potentially leading to poor yields and crop failures. For more details, see the technical appendix.

Riverine and coastal flooding

We define flooding as the presence of water at least one centimeter deep on normally dry land. We analyze two types of flooding here: riverine flooding from rivers bursting their banks and coastal flooding from storm surges and rising sea levels pushing water onto coastal land. Both coastal and riverine flooding can damage property and infrastructure. In severe cases, they could lead to loss of life. 9 The reference period for riverine flooding refers to the average between 1960 and 1999; the reference period for coastal flooding refers to the average between 1979 and 2014. For more details, see the technical appendix.

Based on a combination of frequency and intensity metrics, we estimated three severity levels of each climate hazard: mild, moderate, and severe (exhibit).

Even when we only look at first-order effects, it is clear that building resilience and protecting people from climate hazards are critical. Our analysis provides data that may be used to identify the areas of highest potential exposure and vulnerability and to help build a case for investing in climate resilience on a global scale.

Our findings suggest the following conclusions:

• Under a scenario with 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2030, almost half of the world’s population could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress in the next decade, up from 43 percent today 3 Climate science makes extensive use of scenarios; we have chosen Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and a multimodel ensemble to best model the full inherent risk absent mitigation and adaption. Scenario 1 consists of a mean global temperature rise of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, which is reached by about 2030 under this RCP; Scenario 2 consists of a mean global temperature rise of 2.0°C above preindustrial levels, reached around 2050 under this RCP. Following standard practice, future estimates for 2030 and 2050 represent average climatic behavior over multidecadal periods: 2030 represents the average of the 2021–2040 period, and 2050 represents the average of the 2041–2060 period. We also compare results with today, also based on multidecadal averages, which differ by hazard. For further details, see technical appendix. —and almost a quarter of the world’s population would be exposed to severe hazards. (For detailed explanations of these hazards and how we define “severe,” see sidebar “A climate risk analysis focused on people: Our methodology in brief.”)
• Indeed, as severe climate events become more common, even in a scenario where the world reaches 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050 rather than 2030, nearly one in four people could be exposed to a severe climate hazard that could affect their lives or livelihoods.
• Climate hazards are unevenly distributed. On average, lower-income countries are more likely to be exposed to certain climate hazards compared with many upper-income countries, primarily due to their geographical location but also to the nature of their economies. (That said, both warming scenarios outlined here are likely to expose a larger share of people in nearly all nations to one of the four modeled climate hazards compared with today.) Those who fall within the most vulnerable categories are also more likely to be exposed to a physical climate hazard.

These human-centric data can help leaders identify the best areas of focus and the scale of response needed to help people—particularly the most vulnerable—build their climate resilience.

A larger proportion of the global population could be exposed to a severe climate hazard compared with today

Under a scenario with 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2030, almost half of the world’s population—approximately 5.0 billion people—could be exposed to a climate hazard related to heat stress, drought, flood, or water stress in the next decade, up from 43 percent (3.3 billion people) today.

In much of the discussion below, we focus on severe climate hazards to highlight the most significant effects from a changing climate. We find that regardless of whether warming is limited to 1.5°C or reaches 2.0°C above preindustrial levels by 2050, severe hazard occurrence is likely to increase, and a much larger proportion of the global population could be exposed compared with today (Exhibit 1).

This proportion could more than double, with approximately one in three people likely to be exposed to a severe hazard under a 2.0°C warming scenario by 2050, compared with an estimated one in six exposed today. This amounts to about 2.0 billion additional people likely to be exposed by 2050. Even in a scenario where aggressive decarbonization results in just 1.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2050, the number of people exposed to severe climate hazards could still increase to nearly one in four of the total projected global population, compared with one in six today.

One-sixth of the total projected global population, or about 1.4 billion people, could be exposed to severe heat stress, either acute (humid heat waves) or chronic (lost effective working hours), under a 2.0°C warming scenario above preindustrial levels by 2050, compared with less than 1 percent, or about 0.1 billion people, likely to be exposed today (Exhibit 2).

Our results suggest that both the severity and the geographic reach of severe heat stress may increase to affect more people globally, despite modeled projections of population growth, population shifts from rural to urban areas, and economic migration. Our analysis does not attempt to account for climate-change-related migration or resilience interventions, which could decrease exposure by either forcing people to move away from hot spots or mitigating impacts from severe heat stress.

For those with livelihoods affected by severe chronic heat stress, it could become too hot to work outside during at least 25 percent of effective working hours in any given year. This would likely affect incomes and might even require certain industries to rethink their operations and the nature of workers’ roles. For outdoor workers, extreme heat exposure could also result in chronic exhaustion and other long-term health issues. Heat stress can cause reductions in worker productivity and hours worked due to physiological limits on the human body, as well as an increased need for rest.

We have already seen some of the impacts of acute heat stress in recent years. In the summer of 2010 in Russia, tens of thousands of people died of respiratory illness or heat stress during a large heat-wave event in which temperatures rose to more than 10°C (50°F) higher than average temperatures for those dates. One academic study claims “an approximate 80 percent probability” that the new record high temperature “would not have occurred without climate warming.” 4 Dim Coumou and Stefan Rahmstorf, “Increase of extreme events in a warming world,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) , November 2011, Volume 108, Number 44, pp. 17905–9, pnas.org. To date these impacts have been isolated events, but the potential impact of heat stress on a much broader scale is possible in a 1.5°C or 2.0°C warming scenario in the coming decades.

While we did not assess second-order impacts, they could also be meaningful. Secondary impacts from heat stress may include loss of power, and therefore air conditioning, due to greater stress on electrical grids during acute heat waves, 5 Sofia Aivalioti, Electricity sector adaptation to heat waves , Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University, 2015, academiccommons.columbia.edu. increased stress on hospitals due to increased emergency room visits and admission rates primarily during acute heat-stress events, 6 Climate change and extreme heat events , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2015, cdc.gov. and migration driven primarily by impacts from chronic heat stress. 7 Mariam Traore Chazalnoël, Dina Ionesco, and Eva Mach, Extreme heat and migration , International Organization for Migration, United Nations, 2017, environmentalmigration.iom.int.

The rate of growth in global urban water demand is highly likely to outpace that of urban water supply under future warming and socioeconomic pathway scenarios, compared with the overall historical baseline period (1950–2010). In most geographies, this problem is primarily caused not by climate change but by population growth and a corresponding growth in demand for water. However, in some geographies, urban water stress can be exacerbated by the impact of climate change on water supply. In a 2.0°C warming scenario above preindustrial levels by 2050, about 800 million additional people could be living in urban areas under severe water stress compared with today (Exhibit 3). This could result in lack of access to water supplies for drinking, washing and cleaning, and maintaining industrial operations. In some areas, this could make a case for investment in infrastructure such as pipes and desalination plants to make up for the deficit.

Agricultural drought is most likely to directly affect people employed in the agricultural sector: in conditions of anomalously dry soils, plants do not have an adequate water supply, which inhibits plant growth and reduces production. This in turn could have adverse impacts on agricultural livelihoods.

In a scenario with warming 2.0°C above preindustrial levels by 2050, nearly 100 million people—or approximately one in seven of the total global rural population projected to be employed in the agricultural sector by 2050—could be exposed to a severe level of drought, defined as an average of seven to eight drought years per decade. This could severely diminish people’s ability to maintain a livelihood in rainfed agriculture. Additional irrigation would be required, placing further strain on water demand, and yields could still be reduced if exposed to other heat-related hazards.

While our analysis focused on the first-order effects of agricultural drought, the real-world impact could be much larger. Meaningful second-order effects of agricultural drought include reduced access to drinking water and widespread malnutrition. In addition, drought in regions with insufficient aid can cause infectious disease to spread.

Further, although our analysis did not cover food security, many other studies have posited that if people are unable to appropriately adapt, this level of warming would raise the risk of breadbasket failures and could lead to higher food prices. 8 For more on how a changing climate might affect global breadbaskets, see “ Will the world’s breadbaskets become less reliable? ,” McKinsey Global Institute, May 18, 2020.

Primarily as a result of surging demand exacerbated by climate change, 9 Salvatore Pascale et al., “Increasing risk of another Cape Town ‘Day Zero’ drought in the 21st century, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) , November 2020, Volume 117, Number 47, pp. 29495–503, pnas.org. Cape Town, South Africa, a semi-arid country, recently experienced a water shortage. From 2015 to 2018, unusually high temperatures contributed to higher rates of evaporation with less refresh due to low rainfall, contributing to decline in water reserves which fell to the point of emergency 10 “Cape Town’s Water is Running Out,” NASA Earth Observatory, January 14, 2018, earthobservatory.nasa.gov. —by January 2018, about 4.3 million residents of South Africa had endured years of constant restrictions on water use in both urban and agricultural settings. Area farmers recorded losses, and many agricultural workers lost their jobs. In the city, businesses were hit with steep water tariffs, jobs were lost, and residents had to ration water.

Under a scenario with warming 2.0°C above preindustrial levels by 2050, about 400 million people could be exposed to severe riverine or coastal flooding, which may breach existing defenses in place today. As the planet warms, patterns of flooding are likely to shift. This could lead to decreased flood depth in some regions and increases likely beyond the capacity of existing defenses in others.

Riverine floods can disrupt travel and supply chains, damage homes and infrastructure, and even lead to loss of life in extreme cases. The most vulnerable are likely to be disproportionately affected—fragile homes in informal coastal settlements are highly vulnerable to flood-related damages.

This analysis does not account for the secondary impacts of floods that may affect people. In rural areas, floods could cause the salinity of soil to increase, which in turn could damage agricultural productivity. Flooding could also make rural roads impassable, limiting residents’ ability to evacuate and their access to emergency response. Major floods sometimes lead to widespread impacts caused by population displacement, healthcare disruptions, food supply disruptions, drinking-water contamination, psychological trauma, and the spread of respiratory and insect-borne disease. 11 Christopher Ohl and Sue Tapsell, “Flooding and human health: The dangers posed are not always obvious,” British Medical Journal (BMJ) , 2000, Volume 321, Number 7270, pp. 1167–8, bmj.com; Shuili Du, C.B. Bhattacharya, and Sankar Sen, “Maximizing business returns to corporate social responsibility (CSR): The role of CSR communication,” International Journal of Management Reviews (IJMR) , 2010, Volume 12, Number 1, pp. 8–19, onlinelibrary.wiley.com. The severity of these impacts varies meaningfully across geographic and socioeconomic factors. 12 Roger Few et al., Floods, health and climate change: A strategic review , Tyndall Centre working paper, number 63, November 2004, unisdr.org.

People in lower-income countries tend to have higher levels of exposure to hazards

Our analysis suggests that exposure to climate hazards is unevenly distributed. Overall, a greater proportion of people living in lower-income countries are likely to be exposed to one or more climate hazards (Exhibit 4). Under a scenario with warming 2.0°C above preindustrial levels by 2050, more than half the total projected global population could be affected by a climate hazard. On the other hand, only 10 percent of the total population in high-income countries is likely to be exposed. That said, there could also be meaningful increases in overall exposure in developed nations. For example, based on 2050 population projections, about 160 million people in the United States—almost forty percent of the US population—could be exposed to at least one of the four climate hazards in a 2.0°C warming scenario by 2050.

In all, our analysis suggests that nearly twice as many highly vulnerable people (those estimated to have lower income and who may also have inadequate shelter, transportation, skills, or funds to protect themselves from climate risks) could be exposed to a climate hazard (Exhibit 5).

One of the implications of these findings is that certain countries are likely to be disproportionately affected. Two-thirds of the people who could be exposed to a climate hazard in a 2.0°C warming scenario by 2050 are concentrated in just ten countries. In two of these, Bangladesh and Pakistan, more than 90 percent of the population could be exposed to at least one climate hazard.

India’s vulnerability to climate hazards

Today, India accounts for more than 17 percent of the world’s population. In a scenario with 2.0°C warming above preindustrial levels by 2050, nearly 70 percent of India’s projected population, or 1.2 billion people, is likely to be exposed to one of the four climate hazards analyzed in this report, compared with the current exposure of nearly half of India’s population (0.7 billion). India could account for about 25 percent of the total global population likely to be exposed to a climate hazard under a 2.0°C warming scenario by 2050, relative to today.

Just as the absolute number of people likely to be exposed to hazards is increasing, so too is the proportion of people likely to be exposed to a severe climate hazard. Today, approximately one in six people in India are likely to be exposed to a severe climate hazard that puts lives and livelihoods at risk. Using 2050 population estimates and a scenario with 2.0°C warming above preindustrial levels by 2050, we estimate that this proportion could increase to nearly one in two people.

Severe heat stress is the primary culprit of severe climate hazard exposure, potentially affecting approximately 650 million residents of India by 2050 in the 2.0°C warming scenario, compared with just under ten million today (exhibit).

A vast number of people in India could also be exposed. Under a scenario with warming 2.0°C above preindustrial levels by 2050, nearly half of India’s projected population—approximately 850 million—could be exposed to a severe climate hazard. This equates to nearly one-quarter of the estimated 3.1 billion people likely to be exposed to a severe climate hazard globally by 2050 under a 2.0°C warming scenario (see sidebar “India’s vulnerability to climate hazards”).

Between now and 2050, population models 13 “Spatial Population Scenarios,” City University of New York and NCAR, updated August 2018, cgd.ucar.edu. project that the world could gain an additional 1.6 billion people, a proportion of whom are likely to be more exposed, more vulnerable, and less resilient to climate impacts.

For example, much of this population growth is likely to come from urban areas. Urbanization is likely to exacerbate the urban heat-island effect—in which human activities cause cities to be warmer than outlying areas—and humid heat waves could take an even greater toll. Urbanization is likely a driver in increased exposure of populations in coastal and riverine cities.

In India and other less developed economies, water stress is less of a climate problem and more of a socioeconomic problem. Our work and previous work on the topic has shown that increased water stress is mostly due to increases in demand—which is primarily driven by population growth in urban areas.

As labor shifts away from agriculture and other outdoor occupations toward indoor work, fewer people may be exposed to the effects of agricultural drought and heat stress. But on balance, many more people will likely be exposed to climate hazards by 2050 than today under either a 1.5°C or a 2.0°C warming scenario above preindustrial levels.

Many regions of the world are already experiencing elevated warming on a regional scale. It is estimated that 20 to 40 percent of today’s global population (depending on the temperature data set used) has experienced mean temperatures of at least 1.5°C higher than the preindustrial average in at least one season. 14 “Chapter 1: Framing and context,” Special report: Global warming of 1.5°C , International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2018, ipcc.ch.

Mitigation will be critical to minimizing risk. However, much of the warming likely to occur in the next decade has already been “locked in” based on past emissions and physical inertia in the climate system. 15 H. Damon Matthews et al., “Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets, and the implications for climate mitigation targets,” Environmental Research Letters, January 2018, Volume 13, Number 1. Therefore, in addition to accelerating a path to lower emissions, leaders need to build resilience against climate events into their plans.

Around the world, there are examples of innovative ways to build resilience against climate hazards. For example, the regional government of Quintana Roo on Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula insured its coral reefs in an arrangement with an insurance firm, providing incentives for the insurer to manage any degradation, 16 “World’s first coral reef insurance policy triggered by Hurricane Delta,” Nature Conservancy, December 7, 2020, nature.org. and a redesigned levee system put in place after Hurricane Katrina may have mitigated the worst effects of Hurricane Ida for the citizens of New Orleans. 17 Sarah McQuate, “UW engineer explains how the redesigned levee system in New Orleans helped mitigate the impact of Hurricane Ida,” University of Washington, September 2, 2021, washington.edu.

Nonstate actors may have particular opportunities to help build resilience. For instance, insurance companies may be in a position to encourage institutions to build resilience by offering insurance products for those that make the right investments. This can lower reliance on public money as the first source of funding for recovery from climate events. Civil-engineering companies can participate in innovative public–private partnerships to accelerate infrastructure projects. Companies in the agricultural and food sectors can help farmers around the world mitigate the effects that climate hazards can have on food production—for example, offers of financing can encourage farmers to make investments in resilience. The financial-services sector can get involved by offering better financing rates to borrowers who agree to disclose and reduce emissions and make progress on sustainability goals. And, among other actions, all companies can work to make their own operations and supply chains more resilient.

Accelerating this innovation, and scaling solutions that work quickly, could help us build resilience ahead of the most severe climate hazards.

Harry Bowcott is a senior partner in McKinsey’s London office, Lori Fomenko is a consultant in the Denver office, Alastair Hamilton is a partner in the London office, Mekala Krishnan is a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and a partner in the Boston office, Mihir Mysore is a partner in the Houston office, Alexis Trittipo is an associate partner in the New York office, and Oliver Walker is a director at Vivid Economics, part of McKinsey’s Sustainability Practice.

The authors wish to thank Shruti Badri, Riley Brady, Zach Bruick, Hauke Engel, Meredith Fish, Fabian Franzini, Kelly Kochanski, Romain Paniagua, Hamid Samandari, Humayun Tai, and Kasia Torkarska for their contributions to this article. They also wish to thank external adviser Guiling Wang and the Woodwell Climate Research Center.

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Modi Will Feel the Heat in a Third Term. And Not Just Politically.

Farmers have repeatedly protested over grievances tied to global warming, a major political and economic test given the importance of India’s rural economy.

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By Somini Sengupta

Somini Sengupta is a former South Asia bureau chief and the author of a book about India’s young people.

• June 4, 2024

India, the world’s most populous country, is also among the most vulnerable to climate hazards. That’s not only because of the heat and floods that global warming has exacerbated, but also because so many of the country’s 1.4 billion people are vulnerable to begin with. Most people are poor, by global standards, and they have no safety net.

Narendra Modi, the Hindu nationalist prime minister who claimed victory Tuesday for a third five-year term, will face major challenges fueled by climate change.

Heat is now an election issue, literally.

The six-week process of voting took place amid a scorching heat wave in several parts of the country. In the northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, at least 33 people, including poll workers, died of complications from the heat last week, according to government authorities cited by Reuters.

Rohit Magotra, deputy director of Integrated Research and Action for Development, called on national election officials to reschedule elections in the future to avoid such calamities. He pointed out that workers from every political party suffer in the heat, and so do voters, who often have to line up under the sun.

“I definitely see the momentum building up, and elections are unlikely to be scheduled in peak summer in future,” said Mr. Magotra, whose organization has advocated heat solutions in Indian cities.

The Election Commission this year did set up a task force to monitor weather conditions , but only after voting got underway amid abnormally high temperatures. It also sent election workers a list of heat precautions prepared by the National Disaster Management Agency. However, according to a report published in Scroll, an Indian news site, political-party campaigners were not told to do anything differently because of the heat.

While parliamentary elections are traditionally scheduled in summer in India, climate change is making summers increasingly dangerous. This year, one weather station in Delhi broke the all-time temperature record with a reading above 52 degrees Celsius (127 degrees Fahrenheit) in late May. It was the third consecutive year of abnormally high temperatures in India, all made worse by climate change, according to scientific studies of the heat waves.

Several cities and states have heat action plans, at least on paper. But as one independent analysis concluded last year , they are mostly underfunded and lack concrete ways to identify and protect the most vulnerable.

Farmers, politically powerful, are angry.

Mr. Modi’s government has faced some of the most potent opposition in recent years from farmers’ organizations. And many of their concerns are rooted in climate issues.

Their agitation reflects a deep malaise in agriculture, a major slice of the Indian economy. More than half of all Indians depend on farming to make a living. Groundwater is in short supply in many important agricultural regions. Farmers are in deep debt in many parts of the country.

On top of that, extreme weather and unpredictable rains have wrecked harvests repeatedly in recent years.

In 2020, hundreds of thousands of farmers, mostly from India’s breadbasket region of Punjab and Haryana, erected encampments outside of New Delhi and rolled their tractors into the capital in protests that turned violent . Their initial grievance was over Mr. Modi’s efforts to open up more private investment in agriculture, which the farmers said would make them vulnerable to low prices driven by corporate profit motives.

In the face of the uprising, the government backed down, a rarity for Mr. Modi, but also a move that signals the seriousness with which his administration took the protests.

Again this year, farmers marched on the capital, this time demanding higher government-set prices for wheat and rice.

The global image of India is often associated with its fast-growing economy, its vibrant cities and its huge, young work force. But a majority of its people still depend on farm incomes, most of its 770 million poor people live in the countryside , and the government has been unable to create anywhere near the number of jobs outside agriculture that its booming youth population demands. Fixing agriculture in the era of climate change is likely to be among Mr. Modi’s most profound challenges in the coming years.

“Definitely, increasing extreme weather events (floods, heat waves, storms) are the most important climate challenge facing the government,” said M. Rajeevan, a former secretary in the Earth Sciences Ministry who is now vice chancellor at Atria University in Bengaluru.

Then there’s India’s coal habit.

Climate change is driven principally by the burning of fossil fuels, the dirtiest of which is coal.

At international summits, Mr. Modi has emphasized his push to build renewable energy infrastructure. At the same time though, his government has continued to expand coal .

That’s driven by both political and economic considerations. Coal is the incumbent fuel. Public and private companies, many of them politically connected, are invested in coal. The government’s main interest is in keeping electricity prices low.

Coal remains the country’s biggest source of electricity. Coal use grew this year, partly driven by climate change itself.

Higher temperatures drive up demand for air-conditioners and fans, which drives up demand for electricity. India’s power-sector emissions soared in the first quarter of 2024 , according to Ember, a research organization that tracks emissions.

Coal provides more than 70 percent of India’s electricity, with solar and wind accounting for a little more than 10 percent. And even though the government has set an ambitious target of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, coal’s influence is unlikely to dim anytime soon. According to government projections, coal will still supply more than half of India’s electricity in 2030.

Somini Sengupta is the international climate reporter on the Times climate team. More about Somini Sengupta

Climate change dynamics and adaptation strategies: insights from Dingapota Haor farmers in Bangladesh

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• Published: 06 June 2024
• Volume 2 , article number  22 , ( 2024 )

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• Md. Shajahan Kabir 1 ,
• Rahima Akther 3 ,
• Santa Islam 2 ,
• Saifur Rahman 4 ,
• Nazmus Sayadat 5 &
• Bristy Banik 2  

Bangladesh is a highly climate vulnerable region. Among the many areas of Bangladesh, the haor region is considered as one of the most climate change sensitive areas. Again, the nation greatly depends on the agricultural produce of the haor area. So, adoption to climate change strategies is vital for the farming community of Bangladesh. The current study was conducted based on the idea of understanding the depth of knowledge of farmers regarding climate change, identifying the currently practiced climate change adaptation strategies and to know the influential factors behind the adoption of those practices. The study was drawn on primary data collected from 300 farmers of the Dingapota haor of Mohanganj upazila under Netrokona district of Bangladesh through a structured interview schedule. Descriptive analysis, adaptation Strategy Index (ASI), and Pearson’s product correlation coefficient (r) were used to analyze data with the help of Excel and SPSS. The study found that the intensity of flash floods, short winter seasons, and unpredictable rainfall have significantly increased. Most respondents believe that certain parts of the climatic conditions are getting worse. Farmers’ knowledge about crop diversification secured first and floating agriculture secured second position in case of advanced proficiency to cope with climate change vulnerability. The research exposed that changes in planting and harvesting dates are the most efficient climate change adaptation strategy practiced by farmers and their experience of agricultural farming strongly influences adaptation choices in the study area.

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1 Introduction

Bangladesh is susceptible to sudden onset calamities such as floods, river erosion, cyclones, droughts, tornadoes, cold waves, earthquakes, drainage congestion/water logging, arsenic pollution, salinity intrusion, and global climate change [ 1 , 2 ] because of its geographic location, climate, and topography [ 3 ]. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, BBS (2020), more than 40.60% of people work in the agriculture industry contributing 14.23% to Bangladesh’s GDP [ 4 ]. The production of crops and cattle is being affected by climate change and climate extremes throughout Bangladesh, with the coastal region, islands, and haor area being most affected [ 5 ]. The haor landscape in northeastern Bangladesh is a sizable depression in the shape of a bowl and a seasonal wetland created between the natural embankments of an alluvial fan-river network that, during the monsoon season, generates a significant influx of material from upstream India [ 6 ]. The Haor basin in Bangladesh comprises large areas of seven districts, namely Sylhet, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Moulvibazar, Kishoreganj, Brahmanbaria, and Netrokona covering an area of 20,022 square kilometers [ 7 ]. Among them, the Netrokona district is a flash flood hotspot according to the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 [ 8 ] that substantially exacerbates the process of development. In 2016–17 total agricultural land damaged in Netrokona district due to flood and excessive rain was about 233 acres, loss of yield per acre 24.62 kg, and loss of production in 214 metric ton [ 4 ]. Leya et al. [ 9 ] studied that the Netrkona district experienced flash flooding over a period of 2 to 3 months resulting in damage to crops, livestock, and assets to some extent in 2017. Extreme natural hazards constitute a major threat to the local population’s way of life [ 10 ]. Adaptation is the most effective strategy for limiting climate change’s harmful effects while adjusting to changing climatic and socioeconomic situations, farmers can maintain their security of food, income, and livelihood [ 11 ]. Hence, it’s crucial to comprehend family adaptation to climate change in order to create and put into action efficient adaptation strategies [ 12 ]. Prior to adaptation, it is essential to comprehend how farmers perceive climate change [ 13 ]. Though several studies have been conducted on climate change, to illustrate [ 1 , 5 , 10 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 ], but only a few in-depth studies of climate change in Haor areas specially Netrokona district. Moreover, the literature falls short of providing a comprehensive knowledge of factors influencing farmers’ adaptation decisions. Addressing the existing gaps in the literature, this research focuses on Dingapota Haor in Netrokona district. Therefore, the study aims to bridge these gaps by conducting an in-depth exploration of farmers’ perspectives in Dingapota Haor regarding their perceptions, knowledge, and adaptation strategies practiced by farmers, and also factors that influence farmers’ adaptation decisions of climatic strategies. Finally, this study will contribute to further research on climate change.

2 Conceptual framework

Bangladesh faces a multitude of environmental challenges, including floods, cyclones, and climate change impacts, significantly affecting its predominantly agrarian economy. In instance, the haor areas like Dingapota Haor in the Netrokona district are more vulnerable. This study addresses a critical knowledge gap by delving into the perspectives, knowledge levels, and adaptation strategies of farmers in Dingapota Haor, shedding light on factors influencing their decisions in the face of climate change. With agriculture contributing substantially to the country’s GDP and a significant portion of the population dependent on it, understanding farmers’ perceptions and adaptive measures becomes paramount. The study not only contributes to the empirical understanding of Dingapota Haor but also seeks to fill broader gaps in the literature on farmers’ adaptation decisions in haor areas, especially in the context of Netrokona district. The study examines the complexities of adaptation strategies and their relationship to socioeconomic variables using a mixed-methods approach that combines qualitative insights and quantitative analysis. The conceptual framework integrates key elements such as farmers’ perceptions, knowledge, adaptation strategies, and influencing factors to offer valuable insights into climate change resilience in Dingapota Haor. By bridging these gaps, the research aims to inform more effective climate change adaptation strategies, ultimately contributing to the broader discourse on climate resilience in agricultural communities.

3 Materials and methods

3.1 study areas and data collection.

The study region is located in Bangladesh’s Netrokona District, more specifically in the Dingaputa haor of the Mohanganj upazila (smaller administrative unit) (Fig.  1 ). The Kongso River is the main source of water for the Dingapota haor, which is covered with water during the rainy season on an area of around 8000 ha. Two of the seven unions in Mohanganj upazila—Tetulia and Gaglajur—are fully contained inside the Dingapota haor, while Maghan Siadhar and Suair are partially enclosed [ 22 ]. Geographically this area is highly vulnerable to climate change issues like flood, flash flood etc. [ 23 ]. Thus, agricultural activity is hampered regularly due to climatic events. That’s why this area was chosen as the study area for this research.

Location of the study area

The farmers actively involved in farming comprise the population of the study area. The local Upazila Agriculture Office provided us a list of 1400 farmers (population) and from this list 300 farmers (sample) were randomly selected through simple random sampling. Qualtrics sample calculator was used to determine the sample size of 300 farmers having 95% confidence level, 5% error.

At first data was taken from 20 farmers using the draft questionnaire (Supplementary file 1 ). The structured interview schedule was improved based on feedback from 20 initial interviews with crop growers. Finally, data was collected in a face-to-face interaction with the respondents. Before data collection, informed consent to participate was taken from each of the participants.

Data were processed and analyzed with the help of Microsoft Excel and Statistical Package software (SPSS).

3.2 Empirical method

Descriptive analysis such as, number and percentages, and rank order were used. In this study, adaptation strategies to climate change practiced by farmers were calculated based on the following index formula [ 24 ]:

where ASI = Adaptation Strategy Index, ASn = frequency of farmers rating adaptation strategy as having no importance, ASl = frequency of farmers rating adaptation strategy as having low importance, ASm = frequency of farmers rating adaptation strategy as having moderate importance, ASh = frequency of farmers rating adaptation strategy as having high importance. Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient (r) was used in order to explore the relationship between the selected variables. The equation is:

where Yi = adaptation decision of climatic strategies; X1 = education (years of schooling); X2 = farm size (Acre); X3 = annual income (Tk./year); X4 = experience of agricultural farming (year); X5 = training on disaster management (number of days); X6 = technical and relief support (yes/no); X7 = extension media contact (yes/no); X8 = access to information (yes/no); β0 = intercept; β1 to β8 = regression coefficient of the independent variables; and εi = disturbance term or error term.

4.1 Farmers’ perceptions of climatic events

Farmers in the Dingapota haor region have noticed major shifts in a variety of climatic events over the past 10 years (Fig.  2 ). Flash floods have significantly increased (81%), which suggests a significant impact on the area that is similar to the other scholars [ 5 , 25 , 26 ]. With only 29% of farmers reporting a decline in rainfall and 67% reporting an increase, rainfall patterns have changed dramatically, reflecting a tendency toward higher showers. A change in seasonal predictability is also indicated by a decrease in short winter seasons (13.33%) and a considerable increase in unpredictable rainfall (92.33%) and temperature (74.33%). Tasnim et al. [ 27 ] and Mamun et al. [ 25 ] also reported respondents’ perception of increasing temperature. Farmers are concerned since storm frequency and intensity have increased as well. This trend shows that a majority of the respondents believe that certain parts of the climatic conditions are getting worse or harsher.

(Source: Field survey, 2021)

Farmers’ perceptions regarding different climatic events over the last 10 years

4.2 Farmers’ knowledge of agricultural adaptation to climate change

The level of knowledge among farmers in Bangladesh’s Dingapota haor region on agricultural adaptation to climate change varies. They demonstrate advanced proficiency in floating agriculture and crop diversification, demonstrating a solid understanding of diverse planting strategies suitable for their flood-prone region (Table  1 ). Although they have a fair comprehension of the causes and effects of climate change, there is still space for growth in their knowledge of the underlying problems. A foundational understanding is indicated by basic to moderate knowledge levels in climate-smart agriculture, environmental protection, and sustainable farming methods. However, there exist knowledge gaps, particularly when it comes to cutting-edge agricultural technologies like crop insurance and geographic information systems (GIS). Targeted education and awareness programs focusing on the most vulnerable populations will help them become more resilient to the effects of climate change.

Targeted education and awareness programs concentrating on the causes of climate change and sophisticated agricultural techniques, such as GIS and crop insurance, are crucial to enhancing their resilience against climate change vulnerabilities. It’s a matter of fact that most people have no idea why the floods are happening more and more frequently in recent years. Ferdushi et al. [ 3 ] and Fahim and Sikder [ 5 ] revealed that farmers didn’t know enough about climate change at the time. If farmers lack background knowledge regarding climate change, it would be difficult to approach and convince them to embrace adaptation techniques [ 28 ]. Anik and Khan [ 19 ], also uncovered in their study that a majority of people (41.67%) claimed to have unclear knowledge of climate change.

4.3 Current climate change adaptation strategies practiced by farmers

Table 2 represents the different climate change strategies that are practiced by the farmers in the study area. Changes in planting and harvesting dates are the most efficient climate change adaptation strategy used by farmers in the study area (ASI 663, Rank 1). This technique exhibits a high degree of success and was probably modified in response to changing weather patterns. Altering crop rotation and cropping patterns (ASI 608, Rank 2) also helps farmers adjust to shifting climatic conditions. Islam et al. [ 29 ] also identified the crop rotation as 2nd ranked in adaptation strategy. The moderately effective tactics of agricultural diversification (ASI 581, Rank 3) and using contemporary crop varieties (ASI 576, Rank 4) show a respectable degree of flexibility.

However, some tactics, such as quick relocation to cities (ASI 522, Rank 7) and obtaining agricultural credits (ASI 490, Rank 9), are less successful, maybe as a result of a lack of resources or difficulties with their implementation. Similar adaptation measures were found by other scholars [ 2 , 25 , 26 , 30 , 31 ]. Overall, even though some methods are quite successful, there is an opportunity for development and even a demand for more creative, context-specific methods to increase farmers’ adaptability to climate change on their farms.

4.4 Factors influencing farmers’ adaptation decision of climatic strategies in Dingapota haor

This study identifies a number of determinants that have an impact on farmers’ choices of climatic adaptation tactics. Table 3 shows the important factors behind farmers’ adaptation. The importance of education and resources is highlighted by the favorable effects of higher education levels (X1) and larger farm sizes (X2). This research is in line with some previous studies regarding education [ 32 , 33 ]. The importance of practical knowledge is highlighted by the strong impact of agricultural farming experience (years) on adaptability. This result agreed with the findings of other scholars’ studies that highlighted farmers are more likely to adapt climate change techniques if they have farming experience because knowledge of the advice and use of these tactics is acquired through time and via experience [ 27 , 31 , 34 ].

Access to information (yes/no) and training in disaster management (number of days) also play significant roles, highlighting the need for education and awareness campaigns. Even while annual income (X3) does not directly influence adoption choices, media engagement (yes/no) and organization-provided technical and relief support reveal interesting patterns. Similar findings are also reflected in the studies of Ahmed and Fatema [ 35 ], Piya et al. [ 36 ]. The findings highlight the complexity of adaptation techniques and point to the necessity for specialized support systems and educational initiatives to increase farmers’ adaptability to climate change in Dingapota haor.

5 Discussion

The study sheds light on the evolving climate dynamics, farmers’ knowledge levels, and current adaptation strategies in the Dingapota haor region. Farmers’ reports of an apparent rise in flash floods, changes in rainfall patterns, and an increase in storm frequency are consistent with concerns expressed in earlier research [ 5 , 25 , 26 ]. This highlights how urgent it is to comprehend and deal with how climate change is affecting the region’s agriculture.

Farmers demonstrate commendable proficiency in adapting to their flood-prone environment through practices like floating agriculture and crop diversification. However, knowledge gaps persist, particularly in advanced technologies such as GIS and crop insurance. The results emphasize how crucial it is to implement focused education and awareness campaigns that target the most vulnerable groups in order to increase resilience against the risks associated with climate change. This aligns with prior studies emphasizing the pivotal role of education in fostering adaptive capacity [ 3 , 5 ].

The analysis of current adaptation strategies reveals a mix of effective and less successful practices. Changes in planting and harvesting dates, along with crop rotation, emerge as highly efficient strategies, likely adapted in response to changing weather patterns. The less effective strategies, on the other hand, including moving quickly to a city and getting agricultural credits, point to possible implementation issues or resource limitations. This calls for further exploration of these barriers and the development of context-specific approaches to bolster farmers’ adaptability. Similar forms of adaptation measures were also discovered by other researchers in their investigations [ 2 , 25 , 26 , 30 , 31 ].

The identified factors influencing farmers’ adaptation decisions provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners. Higher education levels and larger farm sizes positively impact adaptability, emphasizing the role of knowledge and resources. Practical knowledge gained through agricultural farming experience significantly influences farmers’ adaptive choices, aligning with previous research highlighting the importance of experiential learning [ 27 , 31 , 34 ].

Access to information and training in disaster management emerge as crucial factors, emphasizing the need for targeted education campaigns. The study reveals the intricate nature of adaptation techniques, showcasing the importance of specialized support systems and educational initiatives tailored to the unique context of Dingapota haor. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of climate change adaptation strategies in agricultural communities and provide a basis for informed policy interventions to enhance resilience in the face of evolving climatic conditions.

6 Conclusion

Farmers’ knowledge on crop diversification, floating agriculture, consequences of climate change and reasons behind climate change provides an idea that they have gained some good amount of knowledge regarding the climate change issues. Again, the current practices of strategies like altering the planting and harvesting dates, changing cropping pattern, crop rotation and crop diversification shows that farmers of the study area are quite aware of combating the adverse effect of climate change. However, issues like crop insurance are still very unfamiliar in Bangladesh, which seems to be an effective tool in the climate change scenario. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) can take initiative to disseminate the information regarding crop insurance to farmers and create sufficient linkage of the farmers with the insurance company. Furthermore, access to information and training on disaster management could play a significant role in adoption of the discussed strategies. So, proper facilities need to be provided to make sure farmers of climate vulnerable areas are having the proper access to information regarding weather and climatic events and it can be very obviously said that ensuring proper disaster management training could play a significant role in coping with climate change in the context of Bangladesh.

Data availability

Data will be made available upon request.

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Department of Rural Sociology, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymenisngh, Bangladesh

Md. Shajahan Kabir

Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymenisngh, Bangladesh

Santa Islam & Bristy Banik

Bangladesh Institute of Professional Management, Mymenisngh, Bangladesh

Rahima Akther

Department of Agricultural Extension Education, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymenisngh, Bangladesh

Saifur Rahman

Department of Agricultural Extension, Ministry of Agriculture, Dhaka, Bangladesh

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Md. Shajahan Kabir: the main idea of the study, Directing the whole research; Rahima Akter: prepared the questionnaire and data collection plan; Santa Islam: data collection, analysis, manuscript preparation; Saifur Rahman: data collection, manuscript preparation; Nazmus Sayadat: data collection; Beisty Banik: manuscript preparation. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Saifur Rahman .

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Kabir, M.S., Akther, R., Islam, S. et al. Climate change dynamics and adaptation strategies: insights from Dingapota Haor farmers in Bangladesh. Discov Agric 2 , 22 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44279-024-00027-0

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Received : 18 November 2023

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s44279-024-00027-0

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