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Unemployment in the time of COVID-19: A research agenda ☆

David l. blustein.

a Boston College, United States of America

b University of Florida, United States of America

Joaquim A. Ferreira

c University of Coimbra, Portugal

Valerie Cohen-Scali

d Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, France

Rachel Gali Cinamon

e University of Tel Aviv, Israel

Blake A. Allan

f Purdue University, United States of America

This essay represents the collective vision of a group of scholars in vocational psychology who have sought to develop a research agenda in response to the massive global unemployment crisis that has been evoked by the COVID-19 pandemic. The research agenda includes exploring how this unemployment crisis may differ from previous unemployment periods; examining the nature of the grief evoked by the parallel loss of work and loss of life; recognizing and addressing the privilege of scholars; examining the inequality that underlies the disproportionate impact of the crisis on poor and working class communities; developing a framework for evidence-based interventions for unemployed individuals; and examining the work-family interface and unemployment among youth.

This essay reflects the collective input from members of a community of vocational psychologists who share an interest in psychology of working theory and related social-justice oriented perspectives ( Blustein, 2019 ; Duffy, Blustein, Diemer, & Autin, 2016 ). Each author of this article has contributed a specific set of ideas, which individually and collectively reflect some promising directions for research about the rampant unemployment that sadly defines this COVID-19 crisis.

Our efforts cohere along several assumptions and values. First, we share a view that unemployment has devastating effects on the psychological, economic, and social well-being of individuals and communities ( Blustein, 2019 ). Second, we seek to build on the exemplary research on unemployment that has documented its impact on mental health ( Paul & Moser, 2009 ; Wanberg, 2012 ) and its equally pernicious impact on communities ( International Labor Organization, 2020b ). Third, we hope that this contribution charts a research agenda that will inform practice at individual and systemic levels to support and sustain people as they grapple with the daunting challenge of seeking work and recovering from the psychological and vocational fallout of this pandemic.

The advent of this period of global unemployment is connected causally and temporally to considerable loss of life and illness, which is creating an intense level of grief and trauma for many people. The first step in developing a research agenda for unemployment during the COVID-19 era is to describe the nature of this process of loss in so many critical sectors of life. A major research question, therefore, is to what extent does this unemployment crisis vary from previous bouts of unemployment which were linked to economic fluctuations? In addition, exploring the role of loss and trauma during this crisis should yield research findings that can inform psychological and vocational interventions as well as policy guidance to support people via civic institutions and communities.

1. Recognizing and channeling our own privilege

In Joe Pinker's (2020) Atlantic essay entitled, “ The Pandemic Will Cleave America in Two”, he highlights two distinct experiences of the pandemic. One is an experience felt by those with high levels of education in stable jobs where telework is possible. Lives are now more stressful, work has been turned upside down, childcare is challenging, and leaving the house feels ominous. The other is an experience felt by the rest of the working public – those who cannot work from home and thus are putting themselves at risk every day, whose jobs have been either lost or downsized, and who are wondering not only if they will catch the virus but whether they have the means and resources to survive. As psychologists and professors, the vast majority of “us” (those writing this essay and those reading it) are extremely fortunate to be in the first group. The pandemic has only served to exacerbate the extent of this privilege.

Given our relative position of power, what are ways we can change our research to be more meaningful and impactful to those outside of our bubble? We propose that the recent work on radical healing in communities of color – where the research is often done in collaboration with the participants and building participant agency is an explicit goal - can inform our path forward ( French et al., 2020 ; Mosley et al., 2020 ). Work has always been a domain where individuals experience distress and marginalization. However, in the current pandemic and into the unforeseeable future, this will only exponentially increase. Sure, we can do surveys about people's experiences and provide incentives for their time. And of course qualitative work will allow us to more directly connect with participants and hear their voices. But what is most needed is research where participants receive tangible benefits to improve their work lives. We, as privileged scholars, need to think about how we can use our expertise in studying work to infuse our studies with real world benefits. We see this as occurring on a spectrum in terms of scholars' time and resources available – from information sharing about resources to providing job-seeking or work-related interventions. In our view, now is the time to truly commit to using work-related research not just as a way to build scholarly knowledge, but as a way to improve lives.

2. Inequality and unemployment

Focusing research efforts on real-world benefits means acknowledging how the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed and exacerbated existing inequities in the labor market. Millions of workers in the U.S. have precarious jobs that are uncertain in the continuity and amount of work, do not pay a living wage, do not give workers power to advocate for their needs, or do not provide access to basic benefits ( Kalleberg, 2009 ). Power and privilege are major determinants of who is at risk for precarious work, with historically marginalized communities being disproportionately vulnerable to these job conditions ( International Labor Organization, 2020a ). In turn, people with precarious work experience chronic stress and uncertainty, putting them at risk for mental health, physical, and relational problems ( Blustein, 2019 ). These risk factors may further worsen the effects of the COVID-19 crisis while simultaneously exposing inequities that existed before the crises.

The COVID-19 pandemic is an opportunity for researchers to define and describe how precarious work creates physical, relational, behavioral, psychological, economic, and emotional vulnerabilities that worsen outcomes from crises like the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., unemployment, psychological distress). For example, longitudinal studies can examine how precarious work creates vulnerabilities in different domains, which in turn predict outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic, including unemployment and mental health. This may include larger scale cohort studies that examine how the COVID-19 crisis has created a generation of precarity among people undergoing the school-to-work transition. Researchers can also study how governmental and nonprofit interventions reduce vulnerability and buffer the relations between precarious work and various outcomes. For example, direct cash assistance is becoming increasingly popular as an efficient way to help people in poverty ( Evans & Popova, 2014 ). However, dominant social narratives (e.g., the myth of meritocracy, the American dream) blame people with poor quality work for their situations. Psychologists have a critical role in (a) documenting false social narratives, (b) studying interventions to provide accurate counter narratives (e.g., people who receive direct cash assistance do not spend money on alcohol or drugs; most people who need assistance are working; Evans & Popova, 2014 ), and (c) studying how to effectively change attitudes among the public to create support for effective interventions.

3. Work-family interface

Investigating the work-family interface during unemployment may appear contradictory. It can be argued that because there is no paid work, the work-family interface does not exist. But ‘work’ is an integral part of people's lives, even during unemployment; for example, working to find a job is a daunting task that is usually done from home. Thus, the work-family interface also exists during unemployment, but our knowledge about this is limited. Our current knowledge on the work-family interface primarily focuses on people who work full-time and usually among working parents with young children ( Cinamon, 2018 ). As such, focusing on the work-family interface during periods of unemployment represents a needed research agenda that can inform public policy and scholarship in work-family relationships.

The rise in unemployment due to COVID-19 relates not only to the unemployed, but also to other family members. Important research questions to consider are how are positive and negative feelings and thoughts about the absence of work conveyed and co-constructed by family members? What family behaviors and dynamics promote and serve as social capital for the unemployed and for the other members of the family? Do job search behaviors serve as a form of modeling for other family members? What are the experiences of unemployed spouses and children, and how do these experiences shape their own career development? These issues can be discerned among unemployed people of different ages, communities, and cultures.

Several research methods can promote this agenda. Participatory action research can enable vocational researchers to be proactive and involved in increasing social solidarity. This approach requires mutual collaboration between the researcher and families wherein one of the parents is unemployed. By giving them voice to describe their experiences, thoughts, ideas, and suggested solutions, we affirm inclusion of the individuals living through the new reality, thereby conveying respect and acknowledgment. At the same time, we can bring ideas, knowledge, and social connections to the families that can serve as social capital. In addition, longitudinal quantitative studies among unemployed families that explore some of the issues noted above would be important as a means of exploring how the new unemployment experience is shaping both work and relationships. We also advocate that meaningful incentives be offered to participants in all of these studies, such as online job search workshops and career education interventions for adolescents.

4. Strategies for dealing with unemployment in the pandemic of 2020

Forward-looking governments and organizations (such as universities) should begin thinking about how to deal with the immediate and long-term consequences of the economic crisis created by COVID-19, especially in the area of unemployment. Creating meaningful interventions to assist the newly unemployed will be difficult because of the unprecedented number of individuals and families that are affected and because of the diverse contextual and personal factors that characterize this new population. Because of this diversity of contextual and personal factors, different interventions will be required for different patterns of individual/contextual characteristics ( Ferreira et al., 2015 ).

In broad outline, a research program to address the diversity of issues identified above could be envisioned to consist of several distinct phases: First, it would be necessary to carefully assess the external circumstances of the unemployed individual's job loss, including the probability of re-employment, financial condition, family composition, and living conditions, among others. Second, an assessment should be made of the individual's strengths and growth edges, particularly as they impact the current situation. These assessments could be performed via paper or online questionnaire. Based on these initial assessments, the third phase would involve using statistical analyses such as cluster analysis to form distinct groups of unemployed individuals, perhaps based in part on the probability of re-employment following the pandemic. The fourth phase would focus on determining the types (and/or combinations) of intervention most appropriate for each group (e.g., temporary government assistance; emotional support counseling; retraining for better future job prospects; relocation, etc.). Because access to specific types of assistance is frequently a serious challenge, especially for underprivileged individuals, the fifth phase should emphasize facilitating individuals' access to the specific assistance they need. Finally, the sixth phase of research should evaluate the efficacy of this approach, although designing such a large research program in a crisis situation requires ongoing process evaluation throughout the design and implementation stages of the research program.

5. Unemployment among youth

As reflected in a recent International Labor Organization (2020a) report on the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, youth were already vulnerable within the workforce prior to the crisis; the recent advent of massive job losses and growing precarity of work is having particularly painful impacts on young people across the globe. The COVID-19 economic crisis with vast increases in unemployment (and competition between workers) and the probable growth of digitalization may result in a major dislocation of young workers from the labor market for some time ( International Labor Organization, 2020b ). To provide knowledge to meet this daunting challenge, researchers should develop an agenda focusing on two major components—the first is a participatory mode of understanding the experience of youth and the second is the development of evidence-based interventions that are derived from this research process.

The data gathering aspect of this research agenda optimally should focus on understanding unemployed youths' perception of their situation (opportunities, barriers, fears, and intentions) and of the new labor market. We propose that research is needed to unpack how youth are constructing this new reality, their relationship to society, to others, and to the world. This crisis may have changed their priorities, the meaning of work, and their lifestyle. For example, this crisis may have led to an awareness of the necessity of developing more environmentally responsible behaviors ( Cohen-Scali et al., 2018 ). These new life styles could result in skills development and increased autonomy and adaptability among young people. In addition, the focus on understanding youths' experience, which can encompass qualitative and quantitative methods, should also include explorations of shifts in youths' sense of identity and purpose, which may be dramatically affected by the crisis. The young people who are without work should be involved at each step of the research process in order to improve their capacities, knowledge, and agency and to ensure that the research is designed from their lived experiences.

Building on these research efforts, interventions may be designed that include individual counseling strategies as well as systemic interventions based on analyses of the communities in which young people are involved (for example, families and couples and not only individuals). In addition, we need more research to learn about the process of collective empowerment and critical consciousness development, which can inform youths' advocacy efforts and serve as a buffer in their career development ( Blustein, 2019 ).

6. Conclusion

The research ideas presented in this contribution have been offered as a means of stimulating needed scholarship, program development, and advocacy efforts. Naturally, these ideas are not intended to be exhaustive. We hope that readers will find ideas and perspectives in our essay that may stimulate a broad-based research agenda for our field, optimally informing transformative interventions and needed policy interventions for individuals and communities suffering from the loss of work (and loss of loved ones in this pandemic). A common thread in our essay is the recommendation that research efforts be constructed from the lived experiences of the individuals who are now out of work. As we have noted here, their experiences may not be similar to other periods of extensive unemployment, which argues strongly for experience-near, participatory research. We are also advocating for the use of rigorous quantitative methods to develop new understanding of the nature of unemployment during this period and to develop and assess interventions. In addition, we would like to advocate that the collective scholarly efforts of our community include incentives and outcomes that support unemployed individuals. For example, online workshops and resources can be shared with participants and other communities as a way of not just dignifying their participation, but of also providing tangible support during a crisis.

In closing, we are humbled by the stories that we hear from our communities about the job loss of this pandemic period. Our authorship team shares a deep commitment to research that matters; in this context, we believe that our work now matters more than we can imagine.

☆ The order of authorship for authors two through six was determined randomly; each of these authors contributed equally to this paper.

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Unemployment

After dropping in 2020, teen summer employment may be poised to continue its slow comeback.

Last summer, businesses trying to come back from the COVID-19 pandemic hired nearly a million more teens than in the summer of 2020.

Most in the U.S. say young adults today face more challenges than their parents’ generation in some key areas

About seven-in-ten say young adults today have a harder time when it comes to saving for the future, paying for college and buying a home.

Some gender disparities widened in the U.S. workforce during the pandemic

Among adults 25 and older who have no education beyond high school, more women have left the labor force than men.

Immigrants in U.S. experienced higher unemployment in the pandemic but have closed the gap

With the economic recovery gaining momentum, unemployment among immigrants is about equal with that of U.S.-born workers.

During the pandemic, teen summer employment hit its lowest point since the Great Recession

Fewer than a third (30.8%) of U.S. teens had a paying job last summer. In 2019, 35.8% of teens worked over the summer.

College graduates in the year of COVID-19 experienced a drop in employment, labor force participation

The challenges of a COVID-19 economy are clear for 2020 college graduates, who have experienced downturns in employment and labor force participation.

U.S. labor market inches back from the COVID-19 shock, but recovery is far from complete

Here’s how the COVID-19 recession is affecting labor force participation and unemployment among American workers a year after its onset.

Long-term unemployment has risen sharply in U.S. amid the pandemic, especially among Asian Americans

About four-in-ten unemployed workers had been out of work for more than six months in February 2021, about double the share in February 2020.

A Year Into the Pandemic, Long-Term Financial Impact Weighs Heavily on Many Americans

About a year since the coronavirus recession began, there are some signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market, and Americans are feeling somewhat better about their personal finances than they were early in the pandemic.

Unemployed Americans are feeling the emotional strain of job loss; most have considered changing occupations

About half of U.S. adults who are currently unemployed and are looking for a job are pessimistic about their prospects for future employment.

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Research Proposal Unemployment

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Background | Publications | Courses | Vitae | Contact

I received my Ph.D. (2005) and M.A. (2001) in Sociology from the University of Massachusetts Amherst . Previously, I earned a B.A. in Sociology from the State Academy of Management in Moscow, Russia. I am an Associate Professor in the Sociology Department of Boston College since 2005. I am also affiliated with the Sloan Center on Aging and Work/Workplace Flexibility . My research interests include race, gender, and class, family sociology, aging and the life course, and quantitative methods.

Sarkisian, Natalia , and Naomi Gerstel. 2012. Nuclear Family Values, Extended Family Lives: The Importance of Gender, Race, and Class . New York: Routledge.

Selected Journal Articles

McNamara, Tay, Marcie Pitt-Catsouphes, Natalia Sarkisian , Elyssa Besen, and Miwako Kidahashi. Forthcoming. "Age Bias in the Workplace: Cultural Stereotypes and In-Group Favoritism." The International Journal of Aging and Human Development . Sarkisian, Natalia , and Naomi Gerstel. 2016. "Does Singlehood Isolate or Integrate? Examining the Link between Marital Status and Ties to Kin, Friends, and Neighbors." Journal of Social and Personal Relationships , 33, 3, 361-384. ***Article selected to be highlighted in "Relationship Matters" podcast (#49)*** Sweet, Stephen, Natalia Sarkisian , Christina Matz-Costa, and Marcie Pitt-Catsouphes. 2015. "Are Women Less Career Centric Than Men? Structure, Culture, and Identity Investments." Community, Work, and Family , 19, 4. Karamnov, Sergey, Natalia Sarkisian , Rebecca Grammer, Wendy L. Gross, and Richard D. Urman. 2015. " Analysis of Adverse Events Associated with Adult Moderate Procedural Sedation Outside the Operating Room. " Journal of Patient Safety . Calvo, Rocio, and Natalia Sarkisian . 2015. " Racial/Ethnic Differences in Postmigration Education among Adult Immigrants in the USA ." Ethnic and Racial Studies , 38, 7, 1029-1049. Calvo, Esteban, Christine A. Mair, and Natalia Sarkisian . 2015. " Individual Troubles, Shared Troubles: The Multiplicative Effect of Individual and Country-level Unemployment on Life Satisfaction in 95 Nations (1981-2009) ." Social Forces , 93, 4 (June), 1625-1653. Johnson, Jessica, Natalia Sarkisian , and John Williamson. 2015. " Using a Micro-Level Model to Generate a Macro-Level Model of Productive Successful Aging ." The Gerontologist , 55, 1 (February), 107-119. Calvo, Esteban, Natalia Sarkisian , and Christopher R. Tamborini. 2013. " Causal Effects of Retirement Timing on Subjective Well-being: The Role of Cultural Norms and Institutional Policies ." Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences , 68, 1 (January), 73-84. *** Winner of the 2013 James G. Zimmer New Investigator Research Award of the APHA Aging and Public Health Section *** Garroutte, Eva Marie, Natalia Sarkisian , and Sergey Karamnov. 2012. " Affective Interactions in Medical Visits: Ethnic Differences among American Indian Older Adults ." Journal of Aging and Health , 24, 7 (October), 1223-1251. Oh, Seil, and Natalia Sarkisian . 2012. " Spiritual Individualism or Engaged Spirituality? Social Implications of Holistic Spirituality among Mind-Body-Spirit Practitioners ." Sociology of Religion , 73, 3 (Autumn), 299-322. Collins, Amy L., Natalia Sarkisian , and Ellen Winner. 2009. " Flow and Happiness in Later Life: An Investigation into the Role of Daily and Weekly Flow Experiences ." Journal of Happiness Studies , 10, 6 (December), 703-709. Garroutte, Eva, Natalia Sarkisian , Dedra Buchwald, Jack Goldberg, and Jan Beals. 2008. " Perceptions of Medical Interaction between Healthcare Providers and American Indian Older Adults ." Social Science and Medicine , 67, 4 (August), 546-556. Shen, Ce, Natalia Sarkisian , and Thanh Tran. 2008. " Child Mortality, Economic Development, and Social Inequality in Less Developed Countries: A Cross-National Analysis ." China Journal of Social Work, 1 , 2 (July), 172-188. Sarkisian, Natalia , and Naomi Gerstel. 2008. " Till Marriage Do Us Part: Adult Children's Relationships with Parents ." Journal of Marriage and Family, 70 , 2 (May), 360-376. Sarkisian, Natalia . 2007. " Street Men, Family Men: Race and Men's Extended Family Involvement ." Social Forces, 86 , 2 (December), 763-794. *** Winner of the 2008 Oliver Cromwell Cox Article Award from the Section on Racial and Ethnic Minorities of the American Sociological Association *** Sarkisian, Natalia , Mariana Gerena, and Naomi Gerstel. 2007. " Extended Family Integration among Euro and Mexican Americans: Ethnicity, Gender, and Class ." Journal of Marriage and Family, 69 , 1 (February), 40-54. *** Winner of the 2008 Distinguished Contribution to Scholarship Award from the Race, Gender, Class Section of the American Sociological Association *** Sarkisian, Natalia . 2006. " 'Doing Family Ambivalence': Nuclear and Extended Families in Single Mothers' Lives ." Journal of Marriage and Family, 68 , 4 (November), 804-811. Gerstel, Naomi, and Natalia Sarkisian . 2006. " Marriage: The Good, the Bad, and the Greedy ." Contexts, 5 , 4 (November), 16-21. Sarkisian, Natalia , Mariana Gerena, and Naomi Gerstel. 2006. " Extended Family Ties among Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Whites: Superintegration or Disintegration? " Family Relations, 55 , 3 (July), 331-344. Garroutte, Eva, Natalia Sarkisian , Lester Arguellos, Jack Goldberg, and Dedra Buchwald. 2006. " Cultural Identity and Perceptions of Health Status among American Indian Older Adults and Their Healthcare Providers ." Journal of General Internal Medicine, 21 , 2 (February), 111-116. Sarkisian, Natalia , and Naomi Gerstel. 2004. " Kin Support Among Blacks and Whites: Race and Family Organization ." American Sociological Review, 69 , 4 (December), 812-837. Sarkisian, Natalia , and Naomi Gerstel. 2004. " Explaining the Gender Gap in Help to Parents: The Importance of Employment ." Journal of Marriage and Family, 66 , 2 (May), 431-451. *** Winner of the 2005 Rosabeth Moss Kanter International Award for Research Excellence in Families and Work ***

Selected Book Chapters

Courses taught at bc.

SOCY7704: Regression Models for Categorical Data The major topics of the course include OLS regression diagnostics, binary, ordered, and multinomial logistic regression, models for the analysis of count data (e.g., Poisson and negative binomial regression), treatment of missing data, and the analysis of clustered and stratified samples. All analyses in the course are conducted using Stata, but no previous Stata experience is necessary. SOCY7705: Advanced Statistics This course introduces students to both hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and structural equation modeling (SEM). The analyses in the course are conducted using HLM and LISREL software. SOCY7706: Longitudinal Data Analysis This course will focus on panel data management and analysis, with topics including change models, fixed and random effects models, GEE models, and mixed models. All analyses in the course are conducted using Stata, but no previous Stata experience is necessary. SOCY7708: Hierarchical Linear Modeling The major topics of this applied course will include two-level models for continuous, categorical, and count outcomes, three-level models, growth curve models, models for dyadic data, and cross-nested models. The analyses in this course are conducted using HLM software. SOCY7709: Quantitative Data Management This course will provide a comprehensive introduction to quantitative data management using Stata; the focus will be on working with complex datasets (both cross-sectional and longitudinal) and preparing them for analysis. This course is intended for students who need to manage data for academic or non-academic projects. SOCY7781: Dissertation Seminar This is a continuing research workshop which covers all stages of the research process, from conceptualization and theory development through data analysis and writing. The workshop is intended primarily for sociology graduate students working on dissertation proposals and dissertations. Others will be welcomed on a case-by-case basis. The group meets bi-weekly, with individual meetings with the professor as necessary. All students who are writing dissertations are strongly recommended to enroll in this workshop, at least for one semester. SOCY3361: Family and Work This course explores the relationship between family and work from a sociological perspective. The course is designed to provide the information and critical skills necessary to address the modern conundrum of work and family life. We shatter common myths about our past and our present and examine how social forces shape the paid and unpaid work that families do. We focus on contemporary families but also attempt to situate them in a broader historical context. Throughout the course, we stay tuned to the issues of race, gender, class, and sexuality. We also explore the relationship of work and family to social policies and social change, investigating ways in which policies create and address inequities and thinking critically about mechanisms for change.

Contact Information

Mailing Address: Natalia Sarkisian Department of Sociology Boston College 140 Commonwealth Ave Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 Phone : (617) 552-0495 Email : [email protected]

Updated : September 1, 2016

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Russia’s white hat hacker bill exposes cyber struggles and strengths

U.S. officials recently warned about pro-Russian hackers targeting poorly secured water systems around the country. While the U.S. was issuing this notice, the Russian government was advancing its own cyber measure: a final-stage bill to legalize white hat hacking.

White hat hacking, sometimes described as ethical hacking, generally refers to security researchers and cybersecurity firms going into company and government networks to probe for vulnerabilities. It’s a widespread practice in the U.S. and elsewhere to ultimately better protect targets.

Alongside water system attacks, the Russian war on Ukraine and sanctions on Russia’s technology sector , a white hat hacking law may seem pointless or even an item that should be at the bottom of Moscow’s to-do list. But the Kremlin’s nearly finalized white hat hacker rules expose the profound challenges facing Russia’s tech sphere — and Moscow’s path to cement its future cyber power.

Prior to February 2022, when the Russian government launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there was great entanglement between technology firms in Russia and the West. Despite U.S. government restrictions on the use of Kaspersky , the Russian antivirus software, Russian businesses had access to many technology and cybersecurity services from abroad — and vice versa.

That has changed dramatically since the war. Russia is greatly struggling with import substitution for Western software ( like Microsoft Windows ) and hardware ( like semiconductors and smartphones) and in keeping its cyber talent in-country amid a persistent brain drain . Foreign companies continue to suspend or terminate tech services in Russia of their own volition.

The impacts of tech isolation, brain drain and sanctions have hit Russia’s cybersecurity sector, too, across everything from talent to hardware procurement. Companies providing defensive services to the private sector as well as offensive and defensive services to the state are feeling the impacts.

Moscow’s new white hat hacking law is an attempt to help reverse the tide. At Russia’s largest hacking conference last year, the minister of digital development, communications and mass media spoke at length about the importance of businesses investing in cybersecurity and in the state cultivating Russia’s cyber talent base.

“I don’t sleep peacefully” when thinking about Russian cybersecurity, he said .

In the year since, Russian tech firms like VK and cybersecurity giants like Positive Technologies have built out bug bounty programs for ethical hackers to report security flaws for payment. The nearly finalized bill seeks to legalize such activities against Russian companies.

Giving the green light for white hat hacking will enable the build-out of these bug bounty programs and efforts to bolster companies’ cyber defenses against foreign actors (including foreign governments ). Such a law is one way the Russian government shapes the cyber ecosystem .

In certain areas and on certain issues, such as hacking Russians or targeting foreign governments without permission, the state sets relatively bright lines of acceptable and unacceptable behavior. Hackers know, often without it being said explicitly, that some activities are off limits. Legalizing white hat hacking does the opposite: It makes explicitly clear, in an environment riddled with uncertainty, that the government wants Russian hackers to find and plug holes in Russian networks.

After a formal review of parliament’s bill, the Russian government has recommended that it clearly include the legality of testing government networks (not currently in scope). It also recommended the bill constrain how much Russian white hat hackers could help organizations in countries committing “unfriendly” actions against Russia — in other words, don’t help Western companies.

With the state’s blessing and recommended changes, the bill has a clear and nearly certain path forward to passage.

On the strategic level, there are two sides to Russia’s so-called ethical hacking effort. It does not come from a position of strength; brain drain, Western sanctions, the inability to replace Western chips with domestic-made ones and other developments since February 2022 have hampered the Russian cybersecurity sector. Authorities modified remote work rules to let Russians support their old companies from abroad. At the same time, state entities cracked down on remote work. The creation of a white hat hacker law is, in some ways, a reflection of the Kremlin’s desperate attempt to boost the cybersecurity of Russian systems amid hacks from Ukraine and others , huge losses of talent and technology, and a need to get a wider swathe of Russians involved in cyber defense.

Simultaneously, Russia is looking to its traditional cyber power base: companies, universities , developers, cybercriminals , so-called patriotic hackers , intelligence contractors and more. Lots of countries have white hat hacking laws, and Russia’s measure is not some inherently nefarious security services plot. But the Russian state does pressure private sector developers to build hacking tools. And it pays cybercriminals to support intelligence operations while encouraging hackers to target foreign countries (among others) when it needs additional support, plausible deniability or even specific capabilities. It is a distributed, entrepreneurial and ingrained way of leveraging a wide spectrum of cyber talent to support the Kremlin.

On top of paying off cybercriminals or firing up patriotic hackers, the proposed law will encourage more citizens, independent developers, academics and even possibly criminals to get involved in bug bounty programs and testing Russian public and private sector networks.

The takeaway for the U.S. national security community is clear: Russian cyber power isn’t just military troops and intelligence operatives; it’s about the entire base of companies, criminals and white hat hackers, too.

Justin Sherman is a nonresident fellow at the Cyber Statecraft Initiative, a program with the Atlantic Council think tank. He is also the founder and CEO of the research and advisory firm Global Cyber Strategies, as well as an adjunct professor at Duke University.

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Infotrak poll shows 83% of Kenyans oppose Finance Bill 2024 proposals

A survey by research firm Infotrak shows that a majority of Kenyans remain pessimistic about the impact of the bill on the current state of the economy with only 13 in a hundred saying they believe the bill carries good fortunes.

 A majority of those polled say that the country is headed in the wrong direction, with key concerns being the high cost of living, punitive taxes and unemployment even as the National Assembly Finance Committee continues to gather public views on the Finance Bill 2024.

The Infotrak report has shown that 77% of Kenyans believe that the bill will have no impact on the current state of the economy with only 13% feeling that it carries good fortunes for the country. 

“Nearly 8 out of 10 say that whether it is passed zero impact so that should ring an alarm bell to our financial infrastructure that in as much as we pass these bills and there are acrimonies in passing them the Wanjiku do not feel that they really have a lot of impacts,” said Infotrack Research Manager Johvine Wanyingo.

About 54% of the 1700 Kenyans who took part in the survey conducted between 23rd May to 29th May 2024 had general awareness about the Finance Bill 2024 but had reservations with some of its key proposals.

Among the contentious issues include the imposition of 16% VAT on basic commodities like bread which was rejected by 87% of those interviewed, VAT on financial transactions was also rejected by 87% of Kenyans, 81% rejected the motor vehicle tax, while 83% opposed the proposal to disclose personal data by data controllers and processors for taxation purposes.

“Of those who consume bread 87% reject the VAT on bread and on financial transactions only 4% support it rejected by 86%,” Wanyingo added.

The poll further shows that a majority of Kenyans 63% feel the country is headed in the wrong direction indicating no significant improvement from the findings of the last 3 surveys.

“If you check it across the regions it is more or less the same you can see for wrong direction save for Northeastern which had a bit of a lower score of 47 the rest of the regions are scoring above 50% tells a lot that there is a bit of disquiet across the country,” he added.

About 49% of Kenyans are concerned about the high cost of living followed by unemployment at 30%, infrastructure at 22%, cost of doing business and access to healthcare services at 19% as well as corruption and insecurity remain key challenges that the public want urgently addressed

“High cost of living is tied to taxation because when you have high taxes imposed by the government on the various services and products then people struggle to make ends meet,” stated Wanyingo.

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Carey Leads Effort to Encourage Small Business Formation

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Theresa Braid, [email protected]

Washington, D.C. -- Today, Representatives Mike Carey (OH-15) and Greg Landsman (OH-1) introduced the bipartisan New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency (NO BOSS) Act, which supports individuals as they pursue small business ownership. The bill makes improvements to the currently underutilized Self-Employment Assistance (SEA) Program, making state participation less onerous and encouraging participation.

“Small businesses are the engine of our economy, but making the leap from unemployment to self-employment is risky,” said Carey . “Americans shouldn’t be forced to choose between unemployment insurance and working on the next big idea. We’re proud to join Rep. Landsman on this bill to improve the support available to aspiring entrepreneurs.” 

"This unique opportunity allows those who are unemployed to build a business with dignity,” said Landsman. "As a member of the House Small Business Committee, I believe these reforms to the program empowers entrepreneurship and could benefit many folks who have a passion but doubt they can make it a reality."

The bill has earned widespread support from the small business community and other outside groups.

“Entrepreneurship is challenging, and we know that finding the support to take the leap is often the hardest part of getting started,” said Shopify Vice President of Communications and Public Affairs Alex Clark. “This policy is a great example of how the government can come to the table to support, enable, and foster more entrepreneurship in a way that can really make a significant difference. Starting a business may have been someone’s plan C, but now is the time they can make it their plan A.” 

“Emerging technologies are making it easier than ever for individuals to strike out on their own and realize the American dream of starting up a business. The NO BOSS Act will help ease restrictions that are inhibiting people from seizing on new innovations to bet on themselves and harness the American entrepreneurial spirit,” said Luke Hogg, Foundation for American Innovation.

Eli Lehrer, of the R Street Institute “The NO BOSS Act is a commonsense proposal that empowers workers, improves our social safety net, and creates new opportunities.  While self-employment rates and business start up rates remain lower than they were 30 years ago, the post-pandemic period has seen a movement towards more people pursuing their dreams and starting new businesses. This proposal can help the nation continue this positive momentum. The R Street Institute is pleased to support it.”

Karen Kerrigan, President & CEO of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), said “Encouraging business ownership and entrepreneurship needs to be embedded within government policy and programs where it is efficient, makes sense, and has a proven track record. Therefore, SBE Council applauds Rep. Mike Carey and Rep. Greg Landsman for their bipartisan work in identifying a policy path that will turn the difficulty of a layoff into entrepreneurial opportunity for more Americans. The ‘New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency Act’ (NO BOSS Act) provides a pragmatic approach to that end in that it modifies existing federal rules governing the state administration of self-employment programs to allow individuals to utilize those resources to start a business rather than being restricted into finding a new job with an existing employer, which may be more difficult in certain regions of the country. This smart approach, which has been piloted in certain states, supports economic development and entrepreneurial choice, and will help individuals achieve financial stability and fulfillment through business ownership. The NO BOSS Act provides reasonable and smart flexibility in how states administer the unemployment insurance program and is a win-win-win for local economies, the broader U.S. economy, and for individuals that want more flexibility and choice in pursuing their next career path.”

"We thank Congressmen Mike Carey (R-OH) and Greg Landsman (D-OH) for their leadership and sponsorship of the New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency Act (NO BOSS Act).  We are proud to support this legislation, which expands Self-Employment Assistance (SEA) programs that transform aspiring entrepreneurs’ dreams into thriving businesses. In today's world, with ecommerce at our fingertips, the opportunities to start a business have never been greater. As an organization that works with small and medium businesses across the US, we have witnessed remarkable success stories from individuals with great ideas, and we believe this legislation can lead to many more. By supporting this Act, we can unleash a wave of new entrepreneurs, invigorate local economies, and create bustling marketplaces driven by innovation and determination,” said Al Ko, CEO at Auctane.

Center for American Entrepreneurship Founder and President John Dearie said , “Our nation’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) system has been an important policy tool to combat joblessness during economic downturns for nearly a century.  Created as part of the Social Security Act of 1935, UI benefits are intended to reduce the hardship of unemployment, help maintain the purchasing power of the unemployed, and preserve the local workforce so that workers are available when employers are ready to rehire,” said John Dearie, president of the Center for American Entrepreneurship.  “More recently, repeated research has demonstrated that entrepreneurs and the new businesses they launch are disproportionately responsible for the innovations that drive economic growth and account for virtually all net new job creation.  The  New Opportunities for Business Ownership and Self-Sufficiency Act  will improve and modernize UI by leveraging the power of entrepreneurship.  Specifically, the Act will broaden and facilitate participation in the Self-Employment Assistance Program (SEA), a currently underused aspect of the UI program that offers qualifying individuals the opportunity for self-employment by combining income support during periods of unemployment with activities related to starting a business.  The bill is a powerfully pro-innovation and pro-entrepreneurship reform to an important aspect of America’s employment policy apparatus.  CAE thanks Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) and Rep. Mike Carey (R-OH) for their leadership and looks forward to working with them to ensure swift passage of the legislation.”

Background:

The Self-Employment Assistance (SEA) Program is designed to encourage unemployed individuals to start their own businesses. Unlike traditional Unemployment Compensation, SEA participants can receive weekly payments while getting their small business off the ground. 

Only eight states offer SEA programs for UC claimants as of 2022 (Delaware, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island). Currently, Oregon and New York have the largest SEA programs, with 390 participants and 1005 participants, respectively.

The NO BOSS Act will improve utilization of the SEA program by making common-sense changes to the program, many modeled after the program’s highly successful implementation in Oregon. The bill would remove the “likely to exhaust benefits” provision, which prevents many unemployed workers from participating in this program and implies that entrepreneurship should only be for those who are unlikely to find any other job. Additionally, the legislation would clarify that a business plan and market feasibility study could serve as an alternative requirement to entrepreneurship training. The bill also provides integrity guardrails to ensure those who have opted to submit a business plan and market feasibility study are meeting the required deadlines. Lastly, the bill increases the participation cap from five to ten percent.

Full text of the NO BOSS Act is available here .

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Is New York’s Economy Too Fragile for Congestion Pricing? Many Say No.

Gov. Kathy Hochul said she halted the tolling plan because of New York City’s unstable economic recovery. Experts say the alternatives are worse.

By Stefanos Chen

In her abrupt decision on Wednesday to halt New York City’s congestion pricing plan , Gov. Kathy Hochul made a familiar argument: The city’s economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still too “delicate.”

It’s true that by several measures, the recovery is far from complete. But experts who study the city’s economy are adamant that congestion pricing — which would have tolled drivers entering Manhattan south of 60th Street in order to reduce traffic and pollution and raise much-needed funds for public transit — could have only helped it bounce back.

Governor Hochul said she didn’t want to pile on another cost for New Yorkers struggling to make ends meet or discourage commuters from visiting Manhattan, where their absence during the pandemic emptied out office buildings and hurt businesses.

But many economists, business owners and civic leaders say the city’s fiscal health is a more complicated matter than the governor’s reasoning would indicate.

“She’s citing a problem, but it’s not one made worse by congestion pricing,” said James Parrott, the director of economic and fiscal policy at the Center for New York City Affairs at the New School.

The plan was expected to collect about $1 billion a year to help pay for crucial improvements to the city’s aging subway, bus and commuter rail systems. Without those funds, a failing transit system could be the worst economic blight of all, critics said.

Governor Hochul’s office did not immediately respond to questions on Friday about the decision to halt the program.

Her reversal was applauded by an eclectic mix of opponents who had accused the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which oversees congestion pricing, of unfairly targeting them, among other complaints.

A recent Siena College survey of about 800 registered voters in New York found that nearly two-thirds of respondents opposed the tolling plan.

Some of the plan’s critics, including New Jersey’s governor, a teachers’ union and a trucking association, had filed federal lawsuits seeking to halt it.

But even as those critics celebrate, it remains unclear how the state will fulfill a $15 billion funding requirement for the M.T.A., as the legislative session in Albany nears its end.

With a growing chorus of politicians and congestion pricing advocates calling for the plan to be put back on track, here is an overview of the city’s economic health, and why those who hope to see the program survive believe the alternatives are worse.

Workers are back on the job, but with worse pay.

The city announced in October that it had recovered the more than 946,000 private-sector jobs that were lost in the pandemic, more than a year ahead of some predictions.

But many of the jobs that returned have been in lower-paying industries like home health care and social services, Dr. Parrott said. Job growth in both of those fields is driven largely by government spending, not by the expansion of private industries.

At the same time, jobs in key sectors like retail, construction and hospitality, which were a source of middle-income employment, especially for Black and Latino New Yorkers, still lag behind prepandemic totals, he said.

“There are segments of the population that have borne the brunt of a lack of recovery,” Dr. Parrott said, pointing to the nearly 8 percent unemployment rate for Black New Yorkers in April, compared with 3.3 percent for white residents.

From rising rents to higher costs at the grocery store, New Yorkers are justified in feeling financially burdened. Incomes retreated between 2019 and 2022, with the median household income falling nearly 7 percent over that period when adjusted for inflation, according to the Center for New York City Affairs.

Critics of congestion pricing pointed to New Yorkers’ shrinking buying power as a reason to reject the tolling plan.

“With inflation, with costs of goods and services overall increasing, everyday New Yorkers just can’t afford this,” said Susan Lee, the president of New Yorkers Against Congestion Pricing Tax, a group of plaintiffs that sued to halt the program.

The poorest New Yorkers would have rarely paid the tolls.

In her announcement on Wednesday, Governor Hochul said she “cannot add another burden to working and middle-class New Yorkers,” who would have been hard-pressed to pay $15 when they drove into the tolling zone during peak hours.

But fewer than 5 percent of poor New Yorkers living outside Manhattan drive into the borough for work, while more than half take public transit, according to a 2022 analysis by the Community Service Society of New York, a nonprofit antipoverty group. Poverty is defined as a family of four making less than $31,200 annually. The plan included off-peak toll discounts and exemptions for some low-income workers.

Out of 1.5 million people who work in the planned congestion pricing zone, only about 1 percent — about 16,000 workers — both earn less than $50,000 and drive to work, according to the M.T.A.’s Traffic Mobility Review Board, which was created to oversee the tolling program.

Average daily ridership on the subway, buses and commuter rails was 4.9 million in May, according to the Community Service Society of New York.

That is why improving the city’s mass transit system is vital to the economy, said Rachel Weinberger, the director of research at the Regional Plan Association, which supports congestion pricing.

“If the transit system is unreliable, unsafe, then people don’t want to use it — so people aren’t going to go to Broadway, or to the office or the museums,” she said.

Tourism and business is still lagging.

Critics of congestion pricing argued that the tolls would have slowed the return of the office workers and tourists whom many of the city’s businesses depend on — concerns the governor echoed.

The tolling zone included the vast majority of Manhattan’s biggest office towers and most of the city’s top tourist destinations, including the theater district and Madison Square Garden. Thinner crowds have already hurt local businesses, and some worried that the tolls could have further depressed sales.

In Times Square, a proxy for the city’s tourism industry that is in the heart of the congestion pricing zone, foot traffic was at less than 70 percent of prepandemic levels in April, according to the New York City Economic Development Corporation.

At the same time, the return-to-office push has stalled.

From mid-April to early May, only 56 percent of Manhattan workers were at their workplace on an average weekday, amounting to about 72 percent of prepandemic attendance, according to the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group that represents some of the largest employers in the city.

Reduced foot traffic has contributed to store closures. In 2019, the city had an average net gain of 400 new businesses every three months, according to the E.D.C. In the third quarter of 2023, the latest period available, there was a net loss of about as many.

But proponents of congestion pricing point to its underappreciated benefits to businesses.

The plan was expected to reduce traffic in Manhattan by 17 percent, which could have been the difference between gridlock and steady movement, said Kathryn Wylde, the president and chief executive of the Partnership for New York City.

A 2018 study by the business group found that the annual cost of delays in commuting time and work-related travel in the metro area was $9.2 billion.

“Nobody is thinking of the positives,” she said. “You will be able to accomplish your small-business activity so much faster, and more efficiently.”

A functioning M.T.A. is vital to the city’s economic recovery.

The biggest problem, in the absence of congestion pricing, is the need to raise the billions of dollars that the M.T.A. is counting on to fix the mass transit system and fund its projects.

For proponents of congestion pricing, the money the program would have raised is the economic stimulus that the city most needs.

“Low- and moderate-income people depend almost exclusively on public transportation,” said David R. Jones, the president and chief executive of the Community Service Society, and an M.T.A. board member.

The $15 billion to be raised from congestion pricing was to have paid for long-planned projects , including buying new trains and buses, improving accessibility for commuters with disabilities, and making crucial improvements to signal systems and switches that, in some cases, date back to the 1930s.

“You can’t strip this money away and not have a plan for making sure the system doesn’t implode,” Mr. Jones said.

As an alternative to the tolls, Governor Hochul proposed an increase in the payroll mobility tax, which has roughly doubled for the biggest companies in New York City since it was introduced in 2009.

On Friday, that plan appeared dead. A proposal that would pledge to find some revenue within the year also faced roadblocks, with no clear alternative to fund transit projects.

Lawmakers were said to be considering committing $1 billion to shore up the loss, but the congestion pricing law passed in 2019 mandated specific funding measures that might not be tenable without the tolling plan.

On Friday, Reinvent Albany, a good governance group, called the last-minute alternative “cockamamie,” and insufficient to fill the M.T.A.’s capital needs.

Andrew Rein, the president of the Citizens Budget Commission, a watchdog group, said he was hopeful there is still a way to restore the congestion pricing plan.

“We shouldn’t throw in the towel, because it’s such a good option, and the others would have much more damaging effects,” he said.

Ana Ley and Grace Ashford contributed reporting.

Stefanos Chen is a Times reporter covering New York City’s economy. He previously covered real estate in the city for over a decade. More about Stefanos Chen

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